We have a 25% chance of 58 mph wind gusts or higher late tonight and Friday morning within 25 miles of your backyard. I have a high wind gust potential at 60 to 65 mph as our 5,000 foot winds increase tonight to near 70 mph. This can sometimes be forced or pushed to the ground during strong thunderstorms.
There is a 20% chance of large hail of nickel size or greater. I think the higher threat of hail would be across north and northwest portions of our viewing area.
There is a 5% chance of a tornado, but right now the greatest threat for that happening looks to be in southern Indiana, especially south of Bloomington.
The storm track is a bit farther west which we saw so many times during the winter...so instead of missing out on snow, we could very well miss out on the brunt of the severe weather. But remember it only takes one isolated storm to cause big trouble around here.
Update on the Meteorological Soundings:
CAPE will rise to near 1,000 j/kg late tonight and early Friday morning.
The LIFTED INDEX will be near -3 by morning.
TOTAL TOTALS OF 51.
I will have the charts on these numbers and what they mean here this evening and post the changes to get some trends. It is all about NOWCASTING in these situations and that is why Live Doppler 18 is so important. I will keep you posted. A special thanks to our Purdue intern Pat Wright for putting this together for us while I did some weather maps this afternoon!
+3 to +1: Slightly Unstable, chance of showers
+1 to -1: Unstable, expect showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
-1 to -3: Moderately Unstable, supports widespread thunderstorms
-3 to -6: Very unstable, widespread thunderstorms that may be severe
< -6: Extremely unstable, widespread severe weather
44-46: Spotty weak thunderstorms
46-48: Isolated moderate thunderstorms
48-50: Heavy thunderstorms
50-52: Heavy thunderstorms with hail possible
52-56: Heavy thunderstorms with hail and possibly tornadoes
56 or greater: Heavy thunderstorms with tornadoes likely
500-1000 J/kg: Thunderstorms are possible
1000-2500 J/kg: Moderate thunderstorms, possibly severe
>2500 J/kg: Severe Thunderstorms likely
These numbers are only guides and should not be taken literally, just like our weather models.