Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Have a great day!!!
Thursday, June 25, 2009
I quickly did the dishes and wiped the counters clean. We had a nice invite to be treated to the Night at the Museum 2 Courtesy of my Dad. We actually made it to the movies on time! My generous Dad got us our tickets, big buckets of popcorn, candy, and drinks. Suprisingly, I really liked this sequel better than the first one and if you have kids it is a must see. I loved all the historical figures in the movie even if was at times hard to believe. Just remember to keep your active imagination turned on if you are a parent which I did. The movie had a couple of deep lines for being more of a science fiction comedy which was fitting on a day like today. I will just say I AGREE THAT THE KEY TO HAPPINESS IS DOING WHAT YOU LOVE WITH THE PEOPLE YOU LOVE.
We thanked my Dad for a fun time and got home. Then I had to run to the library to returns some books and movies. I checked out a religious book, "If You Want to Walk on Water You've Got to Get Out of the Boat." It is actually a book about being more connected to God and living in the transcendent with a touch of humor. Well on the way home my boat of life was rocked when I was listening to a sports program when the guy starts talking about Michael Jackson dying. I thought it was just one of those many unfair rumors about the poor guy we have heard over the years. Only this time it was all too real. I just did not want to believe it. I quicky called my wife and broke the news to her. She was worried about something like this because we of course lost America's side-kick Ed McMahon earlier in the week, then Farrah and she was wondering who the third would be since in her words it always happens in threes. That is one prediction my wife was hoping did not come true. I am not sure why but I sat in front of the television for more than four hours scanning all the cable coverage. I have not done this since 9/11. It will just be one of those days you will know what you were doing when you found out. I just have to say that Michael Jackson was certainly one of a kind and of course is the King of Pop. He was the 80s version of Elvis and the good news is that in one of the hundreds of interviews they replayed on television tonight he did say that TRUTH ALWAYS PREVAILS AND HE BELIEVES IN GOD. I will never forget one of my college roomates playing Michael Jackson music for at least two hours every day. Luckily I loved his music and I studied for many weather exams with Billie Jean in the backround. It kept me fired up.This was huge for me. To this day I still play Michael Jackson songs and through his music he will certainly live on forever.
I feel God does speak to all of us through others and I know that this week he is speaking loud and clear to me. Even if I am not sure of exactly how and why there are no limits on possibilities with God. We are not supposed to understand everything, but God is at work on us and others which will be revealed later on. This evening I will now get back to basics and watch the Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy with my kids. This after all is what it is all about. This is where I should be and I will make sure to enjoy every second of it. God bless!
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Monday, June 22, 2009
Julie always treats me special no matter what day it is but made sure to really make sure I had a great day on Father's Day. I love the new bathing suit she got for me but as I told her I really did not need any presents. Her and the girls spoil me rotten. What more can I ask for? Speaking of lucky here is my Mom who has always been there for me. You see my Mom enjoying her birthday below and yes Lauren is helping her blow out her candles. I was happy to be with her instead of a thousand miles away for once. It made a huge difference for me and her too as you see below.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
...HEAT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT TO 8 PMSUNDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILLBUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND PROVIDE FOR NEAR RECORDTEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF A HUMID AIRMASS AND THESE VERYHOT TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILLRESULT IN A PERIOD OF HEAT INDICES THAT WILL REACH OR EXCEED 110DEGREES. IN ADDITION...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL REMAIN INTHE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THEHEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES ISEXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITYWILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES AREPOSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONEDROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES ANDNEIGHBORS. IF POSSIBLE...CONDUCT ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES EARLY INTHE MORNING OR LATE IN THE EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER.
Latest model data in at 4 p.m. is showing highs once again on Sunday in the upper 90s to near 100 with more records falling! But one change on the way....thunderstorms will erupt and cool us down late in the day and tomorrow night! Stay tuned. Highs only in the 80s by Wednesday.....stay cool and safe! I am glad that all my Indiana friends are safe. Teri sent me some incredible pictures of the storm clouds that whipped up tornadoes in Illinois and 65 mph wind gusts across the Lafayette area. I will share a few....but finally I can say it will really feel like summer in Lafayette for the entire week! Enjoy and do what I do here in Florida to stay cool! Hit the pool! I am off to my Mom's dinner! God bless!
Friday, June 19, 2009
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Okay now I will make a big deal out of the heat. The latest data into me this morning is showing our first 100 degree weather of the year on Saturday. You see the forecast highs based on the GFS model data. The question is will we set any records and how many 100 degree days do you think we average in Lafayette. I will have your answers coming up and yes it still looks like the heat will break in your 10 day forecast by the middle of next week. No changes there. I feel like I have a hundred pictures to share with you and will catch up on posting them. For now though I need to take my oldest daughter to get new goggles before we have a picnic at the pool. It was quite a night last night with wind gusts near 60 mph at Mayport. That was the "ring of fire" pattern catching up to us that we talked about here on the blog a few days ago. Now over the next couple days we will continue to see less in the way of thunderstorm activity before we totally dry out and heat up this weekend. Best chances of storms the next couple afternoons will be near the Interstate 75 corridor. There could be a few strong storms again like we saw last night with small hail, damaging wind, and frequent lightning. Here are the storm reports from last night courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center.
74 MPH WIND GUST AT MAYPORT REPORTED BY SKYWARN SPOTTER MEASURED USING HAND HELD ANEMOMETER. A BLOWN TRANSFORMER AND LIMB DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED.
60 MPH WIND GUSTS AT JACKSONVILLE BEACH WITH PEA-SIZE HAIL
65 MPH WIND GUSTS IN PORTIONS OF ST. JOHNS COUNTY
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TREES DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ST JOHNS COUNTY INCLUDING ONE AT COUNTY ROAD 214 NEAR INTERSTATE 95 JUST WEST NORTHWEST OF ST. AUGUSTINE
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
You see the big bubble of orange showing the big hot dome of high pressure that is bringing us our eighth consecutive day of 90 degree weather. The big orange blob is made up of 5,000 foot temperatures that are generally higher than 60 degrees. During this time of year you can add 30 degrees in hot weather with mainly full sunshine to get your forecast. So you can be a meteorologist with me and figure out that there is a huge portion of theouthern tier of the country with highs of 90 or above. Many folks are starting to complain about the heat but keep in mind this will be our 9th day of 90 degree weather which is average for the month of June and many folks in the Chicagoland area which are running more than 5 degrees below average are wishing they had this real summer weather. In fact, normally we average 17 days of 90 or above in the month of June. This weather is par for the course, nothing more, nothing less and my family is absolutely loving all the great swimming weather. People move to Florida and live in the Sunshine State for the sun, fun, and hot weather. Bring it on! We are heading to the pool once again today but I can tell you what you need to know.
1)The heat wave will break next week.
2) The tropics will become more active as summer officially begins. Watch the Caribbean.
3) It looks great for tomorrow morning's early space launch.
Notice why I think our 90 degree streak ends by the middle of next week. The orange bubble of warm air aloft which translates to hot weather at the surface shifts west and this will allow a trough to move to the East Coast which will impact us here in Florida. Cooler air aloft means better chances of more typical afternoon thunderstorms set off by our sea-breeze fronts. It also gives us a better chance of having cold fronts move our way. We sometimes have to watch for tropical development along these fronts that stall over us here in the south. It could get interesting in a hurry! Highs will still be warm but get ready for 80s instead of those persistent 90s. So if it is too hot for you relief is on the way! You just have to be patient. I will have your exclusive 10 day forecast showing this later today and tonight. But for now it is family first as summer vacation is getting into full swing! I need to make sure all of my girls have their sunscreen on!
Late Today and This Evening Forecast Update: Best chance of thunderstorms of the week for us as some energy from a stalled front to our north moves over our area and collides with our hot and humid weather. Since it will be near the coastline, the storms could actually straddle the beaches before filling in and moving south. The bottom line is I think 60% or more of us seeing rain today and not the more of the same forecast you are seeing on the weather channel.
Monday, June 15, 2009
My middle child Abbey gets an A+ getting through the storms this weekend. She was at the Avenues Mall when the storms hit of course. Sound familiar? The joke in Lafayette is when all my girls were shopping at the mall and storms were in the forecast, watch out! But this time around we talked on the cell phone and I kept her calm. She has come a long way. The lightning capital of the world lives up to its name and for now it looks like her case of keraunophobia is not as bad as it was in Indiana. Keraunophobia is a morbid fear of thunder and lightning. She still has that fear but it is not as intense. I think all those tornado sirens going off in Indiana while Dad had to be at work really took a toll on her. Now Dad is able to be at home much more often with family and most importantly during severe weather! She loves my new schedule and actually so do I! My family and friends are the true cumulonimbi of my life. :)
Saturday, June 13, 2009
It looks hot, hot, hot! The call of more than 10 days in a row we made here on the blog before the 90s hit looks on track. The one change in the long-range is the area of high pressure to our west stays stronger longer and the tropical moisture from the Carribean I expected to cool us down and break the 90 degree spell next weekend may not come to fruition as wind shear remains very high and storms disorganized. So we will continue to sizzle. Have a great rest of your weekend. I will check back with you if nature throws any curve balls our way!
The Weather Service would rather be safe than sorry so a warning was issued. You have to realize that since the airport is located about about 90 minutes away from where this possible funnel cloud was reported the beam gathering data on this possible tornado is shooting into the top part of the cumulonimbus cloud and out into space. So the public is its eyes and ears at this point. A big clue on what really is going on is the latest radar view is not showing the storm bowing out like it was earlier when it produced some 60 mph wind gusts in the Mandarin and St. Johns areas. Tornado warnings are in effect for two of our counties but right now as of 3:54 p.m. the worst part of the storm is in the Palm Coast and Flagler Beach areas. If you are in these areas seek shelter or get to your safe spot immediately. You could still see an isolated wind gust near 60 mph.
The good news is there have been no confirmations of tornadoes and based on the latest radial velocity data the storms moving south are only showing slight rotation if any at this time. Most of the damage we have seen with this storm has already taken place between Mandarin and St. Augustine with some 60 mph wind gusts reported. So if you are in Flagler County this is the area to take cover in betwen now and 4:30 p.m. If you are in Clay and Putnam Counties there is another strong storm moving through with the main threat being penny size hail and an isolated wind gust near 45 mph. Another complex of storms could set off a thunderstorm warning or two for areas of Columbia, Baker, Union, and Alachua Counties over the next hour. Main threats will be isolated wind gusts near 60 mph and small hail. Here are your updated storm reports.
PUBLIC ESTIMATED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST NEAR 60 MPH. WIND ALMOST TOPPLED PECAN TREE. PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED. MANDARIN
THUNDERSTORM WINDS TOPPLED A LARGE TREE NEAR THE 4000 BLOCK OF LORETTO ROAD. MANDARIN
A PINE TREE LANDED ON AN OCCUPIED CAR ON LORETTO ROAD AND PINE ACRES ROAD. THE DRIVER WAS TAKEN TO THE HOSPITAL WITH MINOR INJURIES. MANDARIN
60 MPH WIND GUSTS OBSERVED BY METEOROLOGIST IN DURBIN CROSSING
WIND REPORT FROM SPOTTER OF 50 MPH GUSTS TO 67 MPH. PALM COAST
There could be SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS with the main threat being damaging winds. There could also be some locally heavy rainfall amounts of over one inch and much of that could fall in 30 minutes or less so be careful of flooding. In a nutshell, do not cancel your plans to the beach and pool today but stay alert to changing conditions. Any storms that do form will likely last less than an hour. Right now I put our rain chances at 70%. Stay safe.
Here is a satellite picture showing the "ridge rider" (shown in white) disturbance running around our hot high pressure that will help flare up storms this afternoon. Sunday should be much quieter with just a lone shower or storm as high pressure once again builds east and gains more strength keeping the atmosphere warmer at all levels and not allowing any more ridge-riders to play havoc with our plans. No big changes to your 10 day forecast, but I will make sure to post an update for you before you can get it anywhere else. It is the competitive spirit I developed at WLFI TV-18.
Friday, June 12, 2009
We are all aware that El Nino does have an impact on our weather patterns all across the world and by the end of the summer it should really start to kick in as the equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to heat up to above average levels. This is only one of several factors meteorologists use to forecast long-range weather. So we will not totally forget about El Nino. But a bigger player for us this summer will in fact be CALMA PONTO! This is a name I have given the unusually cool Atlantic Ocean temperatures that are taking place. It is a Spanish phrase for "cool waters". The Climate Prediction Center came out with big news yesterday by showing Atlantic Ocean temperatures running almost a half-degree Celsius below normal. This cool reading is significant because this favors below average numbers of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin. Only one year produced greater than 13 named storms with Atlantic waters running this cool. You can really see CALMA PONTO with two huge areas of cooler than average water above depicted by the blue and deeper bluer colors. El Nino is showing up in the equatorial Pacific with the green and yellow colors starting to take over. So remember the big factor this summer will be CALMA PONTO in the tropics and what this means is not only fewer numbers but hurricanes that will form closer to land areas with all of that cool water located off of Africa. The Carribean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico will be the hot beds of activity this year and will have to be watched closely. Here in Florida we will have to watch these areas more carefully and a tropical system will try to move our way by next weekend, but it is still very early. But for our season as a whole the news is good.
Happy Friday! Another reason to celebrate is the Saharan Dust is being found well out over the Atlantic Ocean. This is related to higher pressure in place related to the Calma Ponto. Less convective activity or thundersotrms in this region allows the dust to really build up and this is yet tidbit of good news we can use to help forecast our hurricane season. Over the years, the higher amounts of Saharan Dust over the Atlantic it correlates to a fewer the number of tropical sytems you can expect to develop. So we will have a plan and remain ready this tropical season because as we know it only takes one storm and being in the wrong place at the wrong time to make it a bad hurricane season. We will plan for the worst and hope for the best but at least for now the atmosphere has the "best" winning out and hopefully that will continue.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Now if you are heading to the beach for some relief from the heat you will have to actually get in the water and swim or surf like my daughters to stay cool. Water temperatures are still in the comfortable middle 70s. One thing you do not want to do is to suntan in this weather. Once you develop a sunburn your body quickly loses its ability to cool itself down. Then you add in the scorching sunshine and high humidity and it is a very bad combination. We have a burn time of only 10 minutes today. Make sure to apply and reapply that sunscreen and do it before you get to the pool or beach or it will already be too late!
Now if you are a fan of cooler weather and need a forecast to help cool you down even if the 90s will not break until later next week. I will let you know why I think we will have less 90 degree days than average this year and the latest on the El Nino and tropics. Here are your updated forecast numbers and you ten day forecast which is a full three hours sooner than you can get anywhere else. Most folks are on the go this time of year and do not have time to sit in front of the TV. Well you finally have a place you can always come to for your local forecast with always more than a lemon twist. Just wait wait until we start the video forecasts. :) I will check in with you this evening to help cool you down. Happy SUMMER!!! Thanks for reading.
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
I do expect tropical trouble or at least plenty of moisture from the Caribbean to move our way but probably not until later next week and especially next weekend. But that is a long way out and we will continue to monitor it day to day. You see the area of most concern right now is in the far southwestern Carribean but there is just too much shear taking place or high upper-level winds keeping the thunderstorms from organizing or showing any consistent presence. The yellow lines above represent the amount of shear tearing the thunderstorms apart and notice in the Caribbean there is a good 20 to just over 50 knots of shear taking place. I expect the shear to start relaxing but again that will not be likely until later next week.
Since nothing is imminent and with no organized fronts or tropical systems in the near future, the heat is on. June usually produces 17 days of 90 degrees or above and we have only seen one day of 90 degrees or above which is only 20% of normal. Now nature will be playing catch-up and while we will not set any records, you certainly will have to take notice of the heat. You see the five day forecast above. I will take it a step further and take it out 10 days for you below. You stay cool and I will have an El Nino update coming your way by tomorrow here on your First Coast Weather Blog.
Now it is time to hit the lemonade stand and then of course the pool and with temperatures like these. The ocean should also warm up to near 80 degrees over the next week. I will be adding your beach and boating forecast here as well on the weather blog so make sure to check back. We have only just begun! I also have some more great pictures from Richard Beedle and Teri Trent that include some unusual clouds called "turkey towers". You thought the 'whale's mouth clouds" were interesting. Wait until you see those turkeys!
Monday, June 8, 2009
It has been quite a struggle to get much sunshine in the Sunshine State these days. You see the St. Augustine lighthouse on Saturday which almost had to be illuminated during the day since it got as dark as night at times in all of those storms that pounded the area. But finally it is not the only beacon of light in your new and improved forecast. The good news is there are brighter days ahead for the country's 10th tallest lighthouse and all Floridians courtesy of high pressure moving our way from the Gulf of Mexico. We in fact should say sizzling sunshine returns this week with plenty of 90s in the forecast beginning tomorrow. We are ready for a break in the weather. This weather pattern has taken its toll. Notice the damage at a convenience store near Brunswick, Georgia last week. While a tornado was not verified the damage does look like it was caused by downburst or straightline winds which can be just as bad as a tornado. This picture proves it!
I did have a great time this weekend and wanted to send a special shout out to WLFI TV-18's reporter and producer Julie Krizen who was in town for a wedding. It was great to see her and her boyfriend who is on the Purdue cheer team. We did Boiler Up! We hit all the shops in St. Augustine including the historic castle. Since Julie is a native Floridian from Sarasota she taught me a thing or two about coquina shells while we went for a walk on the beach. She did hold me accountable for us getting caught in the rain but that is okay. It was warm and humid outside so the rain actually felt good. Here is a picture above of Julie and I. Keep up the great work in Indiana Julie! I would not be surprised to see you on television back home here in Florida someday.
Now one good thing about all the rain we have had is that it has been keeping our temperatures in check. Even when we start drying out all the rain we have had will play a big role in our weather forecast. Normally with 5,000 foot temperatures up near 20 Celsius on the latest model runs that would be enough for me to call Mom and Dad in Mandarin and warn them about highs of 100 degrees. That forecast would have worked over the past couple of years, but not this year. It has been so soggy that a good portion of the sun's energy will go into evaporating all of that ground water that has built up across the area. Remember the earth is heated from the ground up and not the other way around. Since last Friday much of the First Coast has had between two and three inches of rain. Of course this is following the wettest May on record for most of our area. Since the middle of May we have had an astounding 15 to 20 inches across much of the First Coast. Think about it! Some areas have already had a summer's worth of rain since the middle of May. Now it will still get hot in this forecast, but it could have been a lot worse. Another thing saving us from the worst of the searing heat will be the strength of the ridge moving our way. We do not have the protoypical strong monster high pressure we see this time of year that normally builds in the Gulf of Mexico. Notice the bullseye for this heat-maker or center of the high pressure ridge stays back in Mexico.
If anything the high presure ridge will weaken as we head into the weekend as stormy weather to the North continues to suppress it well to the south. This tells me here at home not only will we have highs only in the lower to middle 90s but we will have to keep at least a few scattered thunderstorms in the forecast this week. But the good news is these will be the more typical splash and dash Florida showers and thunderstorms you are used to. They will not ruin your plans and should not last more than an hour. This will be a big change. This pattern shift is long overdue! You can see one of many rainbows spotted along CR-210 in St. Johns County this week. We will finally find our pot of golden sunshine back in the forecast this week.
Now the question is will it last? We have not seen a deluge like this in Florida since the last El Nino and we will talk more about this during the week here on the blog. El Nino conditions are still likely as we head into the July and August. This will have a big impact on our rainfall and numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes over the next several months. Based on the latest long-range maps, the polar jet stream will continue to stay well south of its normal position and more blocking is likely across Canada. This tends to keep things stormier than normal here in Florida as we have seen over the past few weeks. Here are the long-range outlooks for precipitation in this El Nino pattern across the country.
Even though it may be tough to see. I can decipher this map for you. Let me zoom in for you to just include the summer of 2009.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Kids usually have the shorts out and swing away. Yesterday they were searching for sleds in their hats and gloves as two to four inches of snow blanketed the area.
The picture above tells it all. The sun pops out for a few minutes but do not let it fool you. It should really be called "liquid sunshine". With plenty of moisture, lift, and heating of the atmosphere this fires up more rain showers and thunderstorms. It's like nature turns up the heat on a stove and our atmosphere is that pot of boiling water. It certainly boiled over yesterday. You can see how the sunshine quickly gave way to a sky that was almost as dark as night. Here is how it looked before I got on Interstate 95 yesterday.