Thursday, June 11, 2009

Lemonade Days, Haze, & Great Pool Weather! Snow Days this Winter?

This is what most of us have been waiting for! We finally have that vintage hot Florida weather and it is just perfect for selling lemonade. It went fast in this hot weather! My daughters made a quick 5 dollars in less than an hour this morning by selling water, traditional lemonade, and raspberry lemonade for only 25 cents per cup! The outdoor workers really appreciated it. My girls are quite the entrepreneurs and they are off to a great start on their first full day of summer vacation. The neighborhood kids pitched in and made sure to bring plenty of ice to keep the refreshing beverages cold! Today's high will reach 96 with a heat index of 100 to 105 so remember to drink plenty of fluids and of course take advantage of this weather by hitting the pool!

Here are Abbey, Alyssa, Lauren, and Megan cooling down in the pool after selling all of that lemonade. Now today will be the 13th day with temperatures of 90 or above at Jacksonville. Pool temperatures around the area are now in the lower 80s and the ocean temperatures should hit 80 degrees for the first time this year over the weekend. Yesterday I told you that Jacksonville averaged 82 days of 90 degrees or above per year but this year we will likely see less than that. This does not mean we will not have plenty of great swimming, surfing, and boating weather this summer but it is a reflection of a forecast that includes having more clouds and rain than average due to an El Nino seting in. This is good news for our lawns and gardens and those that like the cooler 80 degree days. Some of the latest long-range maps are picking up on this. Check it out!

Notice much of the country falls into the cooler than average territory and more importantly you can see that if any heat ridges build this summer they will not last for more than a couple weeks and this includes Florida. As a result I look for us to have closer to 65 days of 90 degrees or above and locations in Remington, Attica, and Lafayette Indiana will be hard-pressed to more than 6 or 7 days above 90 degrees this year for the entire summer which is less than half of normal. Here in Florida, not quite as dramatic of a drop-off but still a good 17 days below the average. This means Julie and I better keep the Florida house tidy. The Hoosiers are coming, the Hoosiers are coming for real summer weather because it may be tough to find it in good ol' Indiana!

Now the big question is how strong will the El Nino become. This has a big bearing on our hurricane forecast and winter forecast. It is not a matter of if we will have an El Nino but when. Notice all the different model forecasts above. The thing to pay attention to is the 1 degree above average line. This is how far above average the Pacific Ocean temperatures are expected to be and notice there is a big variation in our computer model forecasts. If we get to the one degree line in actuality or much above it....that is considered a moderate to strong El Nino. I do not see this happening based on several indeces. I will put an easy to see graph on here by later tonight but here is what you need to know in Florida I think we are heading into a weak El Nino by July and it will continue for the rest of 2009.

What does this mean for huricanes? During a non-El Nino year there are about 7 hurricanes or more, a weak El Nino brings 5 hurricanes which is about average, and a moderate to strong El Nino usually 3 or less. This makes a huge difference on numbers! I still think my original forecast of 10 named storms and 5 hurricanes is on track but remember Jacksonville's 2 percent chance of a hurricane will be a little higher this year based on it being a non-traditional season. This graph also tells me that Indiana is in for a big winter this year. This past year was disappointing with snowfall as we had amounts of only 18 inches. Average snowfall per year in Lafayette is 22 inches. This year I like 30 inches or more of snow. The problem will not be the cold air, but maybe a lack of moisture. If you get enough moisture watch out Indiana! Here in Florida these below average temperatures are expected to continue into the winter with a suppressed El Nino jet stream, AND I WILL NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SNOW FOR FLORIDA THIS WINTER, and we are due here in Jacksonville. Every six years the First Coast has snow flurries. The last time this happened was way back in 1993 when I lived here and I absolutely had a blast! This could be the year we see snow again and I am not just talking about my beloved Indiana. I have your updated 10 day forecast on the way which shows when the heat will break! Tomorrow we will take a look at some interesting graphs and Saharan Dust over the Atlantic Ocean that could even keep our hurricane numbers even lower. Now your exclusive 10 day forecast!

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