If you have been outside you can feel the difference. My kids are ready to set up their lemonade stand at the pool and they should do quite well based on your up to date forecast through the weekend you see above. This is why I have issued a lemonade advisory. The clouds and scattered showers and storms that have been cooling us down are nowhere to be found. The Jacksonville area has had rain on the radar 23 of the past 27 days. Now today we will have only isolated shower or thunderstorm activity which means more of us will stay dry and hot than not. The difference-maker is a ridge of high pressure building in. Check out the clear real estate below. You see the latest NAM model showing very little in the way of rainfall this afternoon. This is what I mean by isolated shower and thunderstorm activity! Get used to this picture over the next several days!
This is the reason today is just the beginning of nature's 90 degree onslaught. In the Midwest 3 or more days reaching 90 or above is considered a heat wave. Here in Florida it usually takes 10 or more days of 90 degrees or above for it to be considered a heat wave. We may reach that criteria. In fact, I could see us reaching up to 12 consecutive days of 90 degrees or above. The last time we had 12 or more days of 90 degrees or above was more than a year ago when we sizzled from May 31st through June 11th. The latest long-range models are showing this hot spell or heat wave extending for more than 10 days as long as the tropics do not flare up. Now remember it could have been a lot hotter if it wasn't for all of our record rains like we talked about on the blog yesterday, so no complaints. :)
I do expect tropical trouble or at least plenty of moisture from the Caribbean to move our way but probably not until later next week and especially next weekend. But that is a long way out and we will continue to monitor it day to day. You see the area of most concern right now is in the far southwestern Carribean but there is just too much shear taking place or high upper-level winds keeping the thunderstorms from organizing or showing any consistent presence. The yellow lines above represent the amount of shear tearing the thunderstorms apart and notice in the Caribbean there is a good 20 to just over 50 knots of shear taking place. I expect the shear to start relaxing but again that will not be likely until later next week.
Since nothing is imminent and with no organized fronts or tropical systems in the near future, the heat is on. June usually produces 17 days of 90 degrees or above and we have only seen one day of 90 degrees or above which is only 20% of normal. Now nature will be playing catch-up and while we will not set any records, you certainly will have to take notice of the heat. You see the five day forecast above. I will take it a step further and take it out 10 days for you below. You stay cool and I will have an El Nino update coming your way by tomorrow here on your First Coast Weather Blog.
Now it is time to hit the lemonade stand and then of course the pool and with temperatures like these. The ocean should also warm up to near 80 degrees over the next week. I will be adding your beach and boating forecast here as well on the weather blog so make sure to check back. We have only just begun! I also have some more great pictures from Richard Beedle and Teri Trent that include some unusual clouds called "turkey towers". You thought the 'whale's mouth clouds" were interesting. Wait until you see those turkeys!