Saturday, May 12, 2012

Red Sky in the Morning Adorning our Mother's Day & The Players Weekend

What a great start to another big weekend forecast! Thanks so much for the SUPER MOON pictures you sent in last week. You are amazing! What a great start to our weekend with a red sky sunrise. Now normally the weather proverb says, red sky in the morning, sailor's take warning. Remember they are only "sayings" more so than truisms and are not full-proof. So in keeping with the forecast my amended weather words this weekend are as follows, "red sky in the morning, but no worries about any weather warning for Mom or the best golfer's from all over the world!"

Weather is huge this weekend, even more so than normal especially when we have one of the most challenging courses in what some call the fifth major out at TPC-Sawgrass. I have some extra adrenaline going putting the forecast together. This is what it is all about! There are no mulligans in my book anytime of the year, but you better be on your game when you are needed most.

The weather is cooperating so far with my weather forecast of keeping it mainly dry east of I-95 this weekend. SHHH...I do not want to jinx the forecast. I am not superstitious or anything. In fact not only are we staying dry but the normally toughest hole which is number 18 has been made much easier by our brisk east wind gusting near 20 mph at times. This wind is our friend! It is taking its cues from a strong area of high pressure to our east and is telling me the high pressure is holding nice and strong for now. The more high pressure you have, the lower your rain chances. Yes, we could have a brief shower near the Players first thing Sunday with some coastal convergence, but the big rain stays west!While I do think it will rain this weekend as high pressure eventually moves east, I do not think it will be long-lived nor ruin any plans. Let's pinpoint when and where!

Here is your breaking weather of noon Saturday the models are all in agreement our heaviest rain stays confined to the Florida Gulf Coast through Sunday evening. If you check the home barometer it is unusually high for this time of year at 30.26". Our average pressure reading is usually closer to 30.00" or about 10 millibars lower. This is a good sign and the second element in our favor is the warm front is staying well south of our area. This will be a focus for rain for us when it moves our way. But this will be later rather than sooner. Let's take a look.

Notice it lights up our Live Doppler Radar but not until late Sunday night. Now this model is only a guide and we will have to continue to watch things closely together this weekend. But right now the news is good and I just cannot let it rain on Mom! I love you Mom, thanks for not just being a great Mom but a great friend that is always an inspiration to be around. I wanted to also thank my wife for being a wonderful Mom to my three daughters. We couldn't do it without you. Yes, it is a Happy Mother's Day weekend, weatherwise and otherwise! God bless!

Sunday, May 6, 2012

Soggy Start to THE PLAYERS Week But What Matters is How You Finish

One of my favorite sports is not how you start but how you finish! This week is one of the biggest forecast weeks of the year with the Players Tournament! Dan Hicken says if you bring the rain bring it early!  Right now that is the case! We finally have good chances of rain and it will last for more than five minutes. Even better, not one but two fronts or rain-makers are on the way through Wednesday.

If you have plans to go to the Players it does look drier and cooler by the opening round on Thursday. Temperatures throughout the tournament may hold in the 70s which is a bonus for this time of year. It has either been too hot or too wet out at the TPC it seems since the tournament was moved to May, but this year nature may get it right!

We do have to keep a close eye on a soggy front that will try to move our way on Sunday. Right now I think the models are moving it too quickly our way so I am keeping low chances of rain for Sunday. Hopefully the timing stays on our side so we can officially have championship weather! In the meantime enjoy the rain!

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Jalapeno Hot Today to a Super Fiery Red Moon Tonight!

Happy Cinco de Mayo! I am ready for some good Mexican food to celebrate! It will be hot on and off the skewer today thanks to high pressure. It looks like any storms that do develop will impact less than 10% of us and be short-lived near the I-75 corridor. Tonight we do have two stormy weather-makers approaching. One from the north and another from the west. This will bring in a few high cirrus clouds and allow the haze to build. It will not hurt but actually help make for great sky viewing! Expect an extra colorful viewing of the Super Full Moon thanks to the moonbeams being refracted through the added moisture in the atmosphere. Send in those pictures to

It is called the super moon because it is not only full but is also at its closest point to earth in its orbit making it appear 16% larger and 30% brighter. It is only about 250 miles farther away than the extreme super moon of March, 2011. You will not be able to tell the difference.

Sunday we will stay hot with highs back in the lower 90s but with added lift in the atmosphere at least 50% of us will see scattered storms erupt in the afternoon. There is also unusually chilly air moving through in nature's attic which could trigger a couple strong storms with hail and damaging wind gusts. So make sure to keep your FCN weather apps handy and download your only live doppler radar available in Jacksonville at FCN WX for free if you haven't already.

The outlook for next week looks soggy through at least Wednesday as our stormy front stalls out over the area and another front moves in from the west. The Players all depends on this secondary front. If it can clear the area we may have a delightful weekend. But indications are this front may also get hung up which would keep rain chances in the forecast. Stay tuned as our weather team fine-tunes the forecast. Right now, Friday and Saturday look like the drier of the two days.