Friday, June 12, 2009

Forget El Nino! It's Calma Ponto Time this Summer!


We are all aware that El Nino does have an impact on our weather patterns all across the world and by the end of the summer it should really start to kick in as the equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to heat up to above average levels. This is only one of several factors meteorologists use to forecast long-range weather. So we will not totally forget about El Nino. But a bigger player for us this summer will in fact be CALMA PONTO! This is a name I have given the unusually cool Atlantic Ocean temperatures that are taking place. It is a Spanish phrase for "cool waters". The Climate Prediction Center came out with big news yesterday by showing Atlantic Ocean temperatures running almost a half-degree Celsius below normal. This cool reading is significant because this favors below average numbers of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin. Only one year produced greater than 13 named storms with Atlantic waters running this cool. You can really see CALMA PONTO with two huge areas of cooler than average water above depicted by the blue and deeper bluer colors. El Nino is showing up in the equatorial Pacific with the green and yellow colors starting to take over. So remember the big factor this summer will be CALMA PONTO in the tropics and what this means is not only fewer numbers but hurricanes that will form closer to land areas with all of that cool water located off of Africa. The Carribean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico will be the hot beds of activity this year and will have to be watched closely. Here in Florida we will have to watch these areas more carefully and a tropical system will try to move our way by next weekend, but it is still very early. But for our season as a whole the news is good.





Happy Friday! Another reason to celebrate is the Saharan Dust is being found well out over the Atlantic Ocean. This is related to higher pressure in place related to the Calma Ponto. Less convective activity or thundersotrms in this region allows the dust to really build up and this is yet tidbit of good news we can use to help forecast our hurricane season. Over the years, the higher amounts of Saharan Dust over the Atlantic it correlates to a fewer the number of tropical sytems you can expect to develop. So we will have a plan and remain ready this tropical season because as we know it only takes one storm and being in the wrong place at the wrong time to make it a bad hurricane season. We will plan for the worst and hope for the best but at least for now the atmosphere has the "best" winning out and hopefully that will continue.


Another reason to be excited this Friday is the Space Shuttle Endeavour forecast is looking wonderful! The Prangley family is looking forward to seeing the Space Shuttle Endeavour lift off for the first time in person. I heard it is a sight to behold and the ground will shake like the earthquake I went through in Lafayette back in April of 2008! I am ready for another adrenaline rush! I look forward to having a blast, literally! The forecast above does look great, thanks to an early morning launch and yes the winds look light. Any wind speeds over 20 mph pose a threat to launch. I will check back with you this evening which will include all the hot numbers and when our plants will get some needed rain in the 10 day forecast. It is also rip current awareness week in Florida so I will have a graph that will amaze you.




In the meantime go to this link since most of us will be heading to the beach this weekend. It could save your life. Have a great day weatherwise and otherwise! I think it will be another good day to get some ice cream!

4 comments:

Justin said...

WOW Mike I would love to see that one day!

Have a

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Justin In Lafayette, IN.

Anonymous said...

Very cool blog!

Anonymous said...

I have witnessed the space shuttle from afar, West Palm. was beautiful! Enjoy!

Teri in Indiana

Anonymous said...

Can't wait to hear the details of the launch by the Prngley family! My aunt saw it from the Leesburg, FL area several years ago.

MA in REM