Saturday, December 15, 2007

Storm Takes A Turn, But Beware of Round Two

4:00 p.m.

The last time I spoke to you was from a conference call where all the maps were still lining up perfectly for many of us to see over a foot of snow. Less than 3 hours later, nature is showing us who is in charge with its own conference call. The storm is not only slowing down but taking a turn well to the north of its original track. Here is what this means for us.

We have a lull in the storm with even freezing rain and sleet mixing in at this time. The storm track has shifted so far to the northwest that we are now seeing a lot of warm air being drawn up into our region. Things can change quickly with a developing storm and a jet stream that is screaming into the Midwest at 150 mph. The jet is so strong it is literally pushing this low toward the Indiana-Illinois border. It is also pulling in a lot of dry air. This dry slot was not forecasted by any of our weather models over our area yesterday and this morning. Dry slots have been known to cut snow totals almost in half. This dry slot will keep us from receiving the forecasted 3 to 5 inches by 11 p.m. It looks like most of our accumulating snow will come in after midnight.

But do not let your guard down because this low pressure will still generate a major snowstorm for Lafayette. Round one may have been a dud but round two could bring a knock-out blow to parts of our area. In most of our area tonight, I have 4 to 6 inches of snow likely mainly after midnight and another 2 to 4 inches of snow Sunday morning. That puts us in a 6 to 10 inch band. Keep in mind areas to our north and east including Miami, Cass, Pulaski, Fulton, and even White Counties will still likely see a 10 to 14 inch band of snow. The Weather Office in North Webster has not ruled out issuing a blizzard warning for some of our viewing area tomorrow morning and here in Lafayette we could actually have blizzard conditions especially between 6 a.m. and 10 .m. with snow, blowing and drifting snow, along with wind gusts near 40 mph.

I will have an update on your WLFI snow model coming up shortly and the latest data is still showing possible thunder snow late tonight. Our weather team is here and will keep you updated. We will continue to work around the clock for you with updates. This storm has a mind of its own and things could once again change.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Just goes to show you Mother Nature does exactly what she wants to in spite of all the forecasting tools!

Thanks for the updates, Mike!
there is a very fine snow falling with winds from the NE at 11 mph at this time.

Mary Anne in Remington

Jeff said...

I have not seen this kind of storm all day on the radar i just don't understand where these predictions are coming from???The prediction that is NOT gonna be that bad I have seen on the radar all day????The ntl weather service web site has not predicted these 15-20' amounts..The ntl forecast calls for 4-5 tonight with 2-3 tomorrow???

Anonymous said...

Another big show and no payoff. Sure would be nice if you would simply wait until you really know what will happen (apparently about an hour or two in advance) before geting everyone reved up two-three days out.

Anonymous said...

I would much rather know the possibilty of whats coming then him waiting till the 6:00 news saying oh by the way were expecting a big snow storm. Wonder how much better all you haters could do.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for all your hard work Mike. I for one really appreciate your efforts!

Anonymous said...

Actually earlier...the weather channel said one to three, 6 to 10 tonight...one to three tomarrow. Tracks do change. Maybe round two won't let you down. Thanks Mike for spending your weekend trying to keep us up todate.

Heather said...

Really People, Things change. no need to put the meteorologists down. They don't control the weather, they just do their best to predict it. All the weather centers are/were predicting a big snow of between 8-12 inches. I only saw a few who weren't and it was still 6-8 inches. They tell you so early because they want to give you a chance to prepare for the worst case scenario, not to rev you up. And who knows this storm could change again and we could still get hit with a huge snow, there is no way to know for sure, they just tell you what is probable based on what the models are showing them.

Anonymous said...

Another swing and miss from Prangley and the "weather team." Time and time again Prangley gets the forecast wrong, but for some reason still has a job. If anyone else was as wrong as he is at the rate he is at their own jobs they would be at the unemployment office. Another panic-driven forecast that forced schools to cancel athletic events and others to cancel their own plans.

Way to go Mike. You must be proud.

Anonymous said...

In terms of inconvenience, danger and mess there isn't much difference between 10 inches and 16inches. I appreciate the blog Mike, please keep it up.

NonLinear said...

Jeff: That RADAR image you have been looking at all day shows active precipitation. It does nothing to show you the massive amount of water vapor that is in the atmophere over the Midwest. When conditions are right, this vapor will condense, form snow, and fill your driveway. Perhaps you can dig through all of the forecast models, infared, radar, visible imagery and then present your forecast on the local ABC affiliate. (heh)

Mike: Thank you. I would rather have a sane but imperfect (due to Mother Nature's whim) forecast that keeps me home than have the kids stuck at the sitter for three days. It is rough having that Hong Kong butterfly playing havoc with predictions.

deadshow said...

I think Mike does one heck of a job. How can one be expected to give 100% accurate forcasts, well in advance, and not be wrong occasionally?

I agree, I would much rather be prepared for nothing, than not prepared for a big storm, and have no food, no medicine and no clue.

Well done Mike. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

This storm is not over yet anonymous. There is alot of lift with this storm. Bar. still dropping.

Russ said...

Here's what i like. All these people bashing Mike and the weather team, and then the leave out their names. Weather is constantly changing so give Mike a break. And If you are going to bash at least your name

Anonymous said...

Around my area, we refer to them as weather comedians, not meteorologists

Anonymous said...

Some of these posters sound like spoiled children throwing a temper tantum after being told there's no dessert! Anyone who's panicking over a SNOW forecast needs to get some perspective!

I suppose the last anonymous predicts the weather with his arthritic pains and finger in the air, getting it right every single time!

Some of you naysayers would have traded Ted Williams because he "failed" 60% of the time!

Let's remember that Mike called the Blizzard of Feb '07 DEAD ON! Mike will be as right about this storm as anyone can be, given the circumstances of changing weather. If you guys want perfection in meteorology, move to Hawaii! Will the hi be 82 or 83?

Bottom line? It'll be a little tough to travel in the morning. The bitter anger over the EXACT amounts is comical people! Get a grip!

Anonymous said...

Hey! You naysayers are picking on "our" Mike and the WLFI weather team. Cut it out. Don't like what you see on TV-18, change the channel! Watch WTHR or something...they missed the forecast, also!

TV 18 does one heck of a job! The weather team has never let me down. The entire team does their darndest to keep us, the public, apprised of changing weather conditions. I can only imagine how all of them across the country have torn their hair out by the roots over this system!

Hang in there, Mike and team, most of us really, really, appreciate your expertise!

Mary Anne in Remington!