Late Conference Call Confirms Storm Number 15 (Oscar) A Dud!

I think we need to start naming these La Nina storms from here on out so we can keep track of them. We have had 15 storms since January first. Using the 15th letter of the alphabet it should start with an O.......LET ME THINK ABOUT THIS....OKAY HOW ABOUT OSCAR. Oscar is the O word used in communications and since we just had the Academy Awards that gave out Oscars this works. Oscar of course in this case is not a hurricane or tropical storm but a mid-latitude cyclone. The Next storm will have to start with P and it will have a female name....send in your requests now. I am sure you can come up with something I can use! Maybe Patty, since we are getting closer to St. Patty's Day. But let's get back to Oscar and why he will break many snow-lover's hearts in Lafayette and be cherished by those ready for Spring. This will be a small victory for Spring. Jeff Smith did send us in a picture of witch hazel that was blooming here in Lafayette week. He still owes me that car wash but this picture will suffice. It is one of the few signs of Spring we have seen in our never-ending winter. Maybe this will break nature's wintry spell on us, but don't count on it.

Oscar is doing something the first 14 did not do! Its storm track is shifting farther south and east. The blocking high pressure off the Florida coast and southeast that helped bring a historic drought has finally been flattened like a pancake. Folks I met tonight that just got back from the Bahamas tell me they needed their jackets for a couple days. With no Bermuda high to steer this storm farther north and west, the dominant area of high pressure is over Minnesota tonight. Temperatures in Duluth will be below zero again. This cold air will keep Oscar from thinking twice about coming our way. Oscar does not like cold weather and will look for warmer pastures and lean closer to the warmer Gulf stream waters of the Atlantic Ocean. This will pull the dominant low track right up toward New Jersey.Our wintry weather this weekend should be mainly in the form of cold air with January temperatures in March. We will be running about 20 degrees below normal. So as we turn the clocks forward an hour this weekend it will be kind of surreal. At least it will look like March and that extra daylight in the evening tells us Spring continues to close in albeit slowly. Talk about a complex set-up, there will be two low pressures tracking to the north and the dominant low pressure looks to be going right up the East Coast and Jersey Shore. Oscar will take over and sweep all our moisture away before our snow can really add up.

On the conference call it was brought up that at least two of our models just show flurries for Lafayette and even Indianapolis may not see too much in the way of snow. Oscar has wobbled 60 miles farther east which makes a huge difference. Now could Oscar be a trickster? You never say never, but these models are usually pretty good within 24 hours of the main event. I do not see a TROWAL developing this time around, especially with the cold, dry air moving in from Canada. So here is the very latest map for you of expected snowfall.

I think most of us staying below an inch of snow and some of us may not see any snowflakes. Montgomery, Clinton, Howard, and Miami Counties have the best chance of seeing an inch or more, but that may be pushing it. South to Indianapolis, I lowered their totals to to 3 to 5 inches and that may be too high. I do not look for Winter Storm Warnings for Indy.

It looks like most of the snow that does make it into Indiana will still fall Friday night into Saturday morning with the heaviest band remaining in extreme southeastern Indiana.

Oscar may have been kind to us, but we may have a few bad apples moving our way come Spring time. By time we get to Zach we may be talking tornadoes. I hope not but here is the answer to yesterday's blog question. We average four tornadoes per year in the Lafayette viewing area and those numbers go higher in a La Nina pattern. Here is the Odell tornado that hit in the summer of 2006. Luckily, nobody was injured and I will never forget chasing this tornado and sending back reports. By time I caught up with it the tornado lifted, but it left plenty of flattened corn and barn door and rooftop damage.

So remember La Nina is not only trouble for us for big storms in the winter, but the Spring. Remember we set a record for thunderstorms in February with five and have already had one this month and it probably is a sign of things to come. The powerful La Nina jet stream adds spin to our thunderstorms which could give way to big hail, wind, and tornado events. One of the years that matches up to this year is 1974 which of course will always be remembered as our big tornado year here in Indiana with the Super Outbreak. Just ask folks in Monticello. So be careful what you wish for. I would rather take a snowstorm anyday over a tornado.

Have a great weekend and your blog question of the day today is:

Are tornado sirens supposed to be your family's number one defense against severe weather?

Remember to turn those clocks forward this weekend and enjoy the extra daylight. It will at least look like Spring in the evenings!