3:35 p.m. Update
I just did a new web weather and based on the latest Live Doppler 18 scans it still looks like wind gusts to 40 mph and heavy downpours causing hydroplaning will be our main threats. Lightning tracker which will soon be available on the web by later this week (yes!) is not showing much lightning at all. You have to go north of Winamac to find any lightning at all and it is very sporadic. The line does not seem to be showing signs of bowing out which is also good news. So right now the big thing is to be careful on the roadways heading home and most of our gusty thunderstorms should end by 7 p.m. Then you can expect off and on rain showers until about midnight before our real autumn weather moves in! Right now it is only 51 in Chicago! Stay warm and stay safe!
10 a.m. Update
It should be an interesting afternoon and evening. I am just finishing up cutting my lawn before the bigger thunderstorms and heavier rain moves in this afternoon as expected, especially after 3 p.m. Here is the latest discussion out of the Storm Prediction Center this morning.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MORE ORGANIZED LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH OVER PARTS OF IL/MO/IND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION FOR EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP CONFIGURATIONS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF HAIL...AND STRONGLY VEERED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO THREAT.
What this means is that we could see a strong storm or two and I have noticed we have the sun popping out a little outside with plenty of humidity. This will tend to destabilize things even more. The Storm Prediction Center is already concerned about bow echoes and here in Indiana they many times do cause damaging winds and even brief, small tornadoes. Even though we have not been put in a risk area for severe thunderstorms by the folks in Norman, Oklahoma do not let your guard down. Here in Indiana we know to always keep our guard up. I am expecting a few thunderstorms with wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Isolated wind gusts could approach 60 mph which reaches severe criteria. I have noticed our 5,000 foot wind speeds increase to 35 mph by late this afternoon as the line of showers and thunderstorms arrive. This will certainly add some punch to the storms as they move through. So here is one of those days in Indiana where we usually get hit when everybody is downplaying things. Well, you weather team is ready and now you are too. Be safe this afternoon and evening and I will make sure to keep you updated here on the blog and on the tube.