Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Warm Air Wins the Battle & We are Left With Slush & Chills

My wife has already checked on me to make sure I am okay. This is a sure sign of a forecast bust. It is like when you go to the bench after fouling out and the coach gives you that look of why in the world did you get yourself out of position. Yes, she knows how wound up I get about these storms and how important nailing the forecast is to me. I gave 100%, but it simply was not my day. Keeping with our baskeball sectional analogies...you cannot win them all, but it is very painful when you lose. I am a scrapper and only know one speed. I am the one that always dives for those loose rebounds and looks at not just a few models, but all 20 of them to get an edge. I even look at past history, like I did on the blog yesterday, but instead of going in the safer 2 to 4 inch category, I went with the higher 4 to 6 inch amounts based on all of the data. I may have tried too hard. Well, history caught up with me. You can get 99 forecasts right, but it is the one you miss that folks remember. It comes with the territory of being a meteorologist. You have to be tough. No wonder I got into running marathons. You just have to tough it out and keep moving. Today is tough and is like pushing through miles 18 to 21. What went wrong?

I could have played it safe yesterday, but safety and preparing people is the most important part of my job and when maps showed a good swath of 8 inch snows likely across northern Indiana, I really liked our chances of seeing at least 4 inches and most likely 6 inches to the south of the heavier band. But like in basketball, it is a game of inches and the heavier snow band missed Lafayette 40 miles to our northeast. I am not one for excuses, but if you told me yesterday that our temperatures would still be in the middle 30s at noon today I certainly would have gone with the lower snow totals. But none of the maps had the warm air hanging on that long. In fact upper 20s were forecast by early this morning on all of our model runs. We likely will not see those upper 20s now until early evening. So chalk this win up to the warm air and not the snow. The good news is that we will be able to get out and enjoy some sectional basketball games tonight. Look for some great Hoosier basketball! Sportsmanship, win or lose is important. So I will keep my head up ready for another battle with Indiana weather. It certainly builds character. Thanks for all your support, win or lose, and I know there are a lot of you out there that were happy nature spared us the worst this time around.

I am going to go heat up some more spaghetti for Lauren and I at lunch. Yes! My three year old still has me laughing and smiling and keeps everything in perspective. I will post all the snow totals on here later today including a whopping 12" of snow for a location in Indiana. There were several spots in our northern counties and viewing area that did end up in the 6 inch range, so the forecast was not a total lost cause. Now bundle up and be careful of falling temperatures tonight and a few slick spots. Any additional snow accumulations will be less than an inch and wind chills will fall to near zero by morning.

28 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hooray for slush!

Ben said...

Don't despair Mike! I feel for you, and let's just hope the people that make those darn computer models are using all of the data gathered this winter to make even more accurate models for our future.

On the other hand, I tend to appreciate the fact that life is not so predictable...even when it comes to the weather. I guess that means I like it that you're wrong sometimes, Mike. Sorry!

Anonymous said...

You think you're right 99%??????

Anonymous said...

You did your best Mike, you were not the only one that had us in the higher snowfall amounts, the weather channel, Accu weather radio stations were all forcasting the same, The national weather service are the ones who issued a winter storm watch, not you! then down graded to a adviorsy later in the day. If any one is at fault it is not you, Like I have said on this blog before, only Mother Nature knows for certian where she is going.Keep your chin up!
You have my full resecpt!

Anonymous said...

Keep you head up. You'll get 'em next time. And ignore the naysayers. It's not your fault they are such small people that the way they choose to spend their time is by kicking others when they are down.

Anonymous said...

I believe those who kick others when they are down is only because of lack of self-esteem on their part...to the naysayers, I say it is all about respect. I am sorry for you if this is how you to chose to live your life with the glass always half-empty and getting joy out of bashing others.

Anonymous said...

I would be willing to bet that all who are complaining about Mikes forcast, have made mistakes at their own jobs and in life its self. Mike is hard enough on himself, give it a rest. Remember the old saying, If you cant say somthing nice the dont say anything at all? I tought my children that saying, and they try hard to follow through. What a lot of you complainers dont realize is that children read this site as well, you are fine examples of what I do not want my children to grow up to be like.
I have been trying be positive about all the complaints I have read, but my heart goes out to Mike who works so hard.He does not need the cut downs! This site is is fun for most and should remain that way!Just remember that Mike had kept us safe with his updates during thunderstorms, tornados, ext. This was not Mikes mistake, most forcasters were saying one litte shift of this storm things could do a complete turn around.Mike has tought many children and adults storm safty, however their are a few that think all is a bunch of talk, for example, last summer during a lightning storm, Mike warned to stay inside, my neighbors did not, they sat on their porch, and watched the light show when lightning hit a telepone pole not 10 feet away from them, they listen now! Thank you Mike, you have a tough job!and are great at it!

Anonymous said...

Mike please go back to the old models you were using before all of the "cool" updates for graphics. They were always right on the money, but now we never know what is going to happen. We really need more accurate forecasting, just wishing for a big snow isn't good enough. I had out of town associates cancel a meeting today and head back to Indy last night based on your forecast and now we have been put behind in a project. Getting it right is important and you just can't say "oh well, you can't win them all" Ever since the change you haven't won one!

Anonymous said...

i am just kidding i want warm weather

Anonymous said...

My thought on the people that are bulling up on Mike, that could be suffering from (SAD)Seasonal Affective Disorder, look it up on line. When the sun starts shining and the days are bright and warm. longer periods of daylight, I bet most will have a different attitude! Its been a long rough winter, and Mike is not to blame. The winter blues are soon to be over!

Anonymous said...

Mike, why do you keep setting yourself up? Remember these 3 issues that I told you about before--warm air intrusion, the low always tracks further north, and we always have freezing rain/sleet issues that cut down our totals. I do not presume to know more than you, but it just seems like these 3 issues are always a factor in this La Nina pattern. Anyway, keep on trying and we will keep listening. Oh, please list Crawfordsville snow totals, you always leave us out down south here!

Anonymous said...

I hope we dont give up the thought of the T-shirts for the winter of 2007-2008, I have been doing research on how we can make it happen. Would love to raise money for our non-profit animal shelters!

Anonymous said...

Mike, this is the first time I've posted a comment. My family loves your enthusiasm! I think it's fun to follow the weather, and I don't know of another meteorologist anywhere who seems as passionate and enthusiastic as you. Part of the fun of weather is its unpredictability. Keep up the outstanding work and thanks for your blog -- we love reading it!

Anonymous said...

I love the t-shirt idea, great idea to raise $ for our 4-legged friends!

Anonymous said...

Mike, When you are at the point of creating and directing weather I'll expect you to be right 100% of the time. Until then just keep doing the best you can. With that said, if weather creation and direction is a goal of yours, could you please keep it from snowing on the streets and driveways ... and make all the snow go away in four weeks so I can get back on the golf course!

Anonymous said...

Yes, don't worry what everyone says. We do the best we can, better to be safe than sorry. I appreciate your efforts, keep up the good work! :)

JoMamma said...

Mike, As much as I love snow, I am glad you were wrong this time LOL. When we were driving out of Lafayette tonight and commenting about the sunshine and the dry roads, it was a bonus to our day. Then, on 800 N just west of SR 43 we hit a spot in the road that is drifting shut! I am not kidding--everywhere else it is dry and in this spot it is down to one lane. Who would have thought.
Well, I think I better take down my "Let It Snow Sign"
We enjoy your blog! Keep up the good work.

Anonymous said...

Now back to the deep freeze,sigh, Oh how I am ready the put away the winter coats, and get out the shorts, and go fishing! Hope you get rest this evening Mike. When is the next round?

Anonymous said...

Mike

You got it right up north.

Kentland 6.5 inches
Rensselaer 8.0 inches.
Fowler 6.0 inches

You where off by 2 counties.

No Big Deal.

Hound

Anonymous said...

Mike, I just read my blog from this after noon. I hope you didnt take it the wrong way. What I meant to write is that perhaps all the bullies are the ones who may be dealing with (SAD) Seasonal Affective Disorder not you! People do not realize it is a real thing. They should look it up on line.

Anonymous said...

Good evening Mike, I just read on accu weather that 1-3 inches of snow is expected in Lafayette for Thursday Feb.28. What do think?

Anonymous said...

Mike, I check your blog every day. I appreciate you keeping us informed. We Newton County people got a nice snowfall but not to the extend that the Weather Channel called for. So...see....no one is perfect at "calling" the weather. I always compare your data and the Weather Channel. Your forecasts are usually very close in their predictions. Listen to those who appreciate you...there will always be those who are never satisfied unless they are complaining. Keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

Don't let the turkeys get you down, Mike. They aren't even right 99% of the time or 10%. We love you...keep your chin up.

Anonymous said...

Mike, Don't let the negative comments get you down. I would much rather you let us know what could be coming rather than not telling us and be caught off guard. Also, for all of those people who are hard on weatherforecasters, Do you ALWAYS do PERFECT job at your day job? As humans we all make mistakes. Computers are only as smart as the person who enters the information. So, that said, Mike is a human and works with computers to do the best at his job he can do.

Next time, a forecast is not what you want/or are expecting, why don't you talk to the ONE who is in charge and see if HE gives you a better answer than what the forecaster gives.

Mike, keep letting us know whats ahead and forget about those who are never happy!

Chris J said...

I'm not here to bash you Mike and this most recent flop of your weather forecast didn't affect my plans, but I do want to say, I have been trying to go visit my father who lives in Ohio for the past three weekends. My father is extremely ill and honestly, we don't know from one day to the next if he's going to be around. Based on your forecasts of snow during these weekends I have cancelled my plans to visit him. Turns out, we didn't get the amounts or severity of what was forecasted. I realize people love a good snowstorm, but please keep in mind when forecasting weather, it plays a decisive role in peoples lives/plans. If you don't know how much snow we're really going to get, why guess at a larger amount and get people all hyped up and, in my case, cancel very important plans? I know you're not God and can't control the weather, BUT, you are a weather forecaster who predicts the weather. I just don't understand how one can be so far off so many times.

Anonymous said...

I'd far rather you over-estimate the snow and it not come, than under-estimate it and get slammed when I'm completely unprepared. I have a teen driver, and I'd rather get him up and out a little earlier if it's possible the roads will be bad. I'd hate to not expect it only to have him flying out the door at the last minute(as usual) and finding the road conditions unexpectedly dangerous. I appreciate your efforts with this blog and I hope you keep it going.

Thanks!

Chris J said...

I have been trying for the past three weekends to visit my father in Ohio who is in extremely ill health. I have canceled these plans based on your forecasts of exaggerated snowstorms. Please keep in mind, not all of us reading/watching you are students hoping school will be called off. People listen/watch you for a prediction of weather - NOT an exaggeration of weather. I'm so thankful I have another weekend coming up while he's still alive (hopefully) where I'll have a chance to see him and that he DIDN'T die during these past weekends I've cancelled my plans because of your forecasts that were completely blown out of proportion.

Heather said...

Wow, Im amazed at what some people are writing on here. Chris, Im sorry that your father is ill but there is no reason for you to bring it up here. If it is as bad as you say wouldn't you deal with the weather and drive anyway. You can not blame not getting to see your dad on Mike, Weather channel called for the same, do you want to blame them to?

Mike,
Keep your head up, everyone gets an air ball sometimes, no big deal!
Oh and i used to be Lauren's teacher at the Y and she is a great little girl to keep your spirits up, thats for sure!

Cheer up and have a great rest of the week, hopefully we will start to warm up soon!