My wife has already checked on me to make sure I am okay. This is a sure sign of a forecast bust. It is like when you go to the bench after fouling out and the coach gives you that look of why in the world did you get yourself out of position. Yes, she knows how wound up I get about these storms and how important nailing the forecast is to me. I gave 100%, but it simply was not my day. Keeping with our baskeball sectional analogies...you cannot win them all, but it is very painful when you lose. I am a scrapper and only know one speed. I am the one that always dives for those loose rebounds and looks at not just a few models, but all 20 of them to get an edge. I even look at past history, like I did on the blog yesterday, but instead of going in the safer 2 to 4 inch category, I went with the higher 4 to 6 inch amounts based on all of the data. I may have tried too hard. Well, history caught up with me. You can get 99 forecasts right, but it is the one you miss that folks remember. It comes with the territory of being a meteorologist. You have to be tough. No wonder I got into running marathons. You just have to tough it out and keep moving. Today is tough and is like pushing through miles 18 to 21. What went wrong?
I could have played it safe yesterday, but safety and preparing people is the most important part of my job and when maps showed a good swath of 8 inch snows likely across northern Indiana, I really liked our chances of seeing at least 4 inches and most likely 6 inches to the south of the heavier band. But like in basketball, it is a game of inches and the heavier snow band missed Lafayette 40 miles to our northeast. I am not one for excuses, but if you told me yesterday that our temperatures would still be in the middle 30s at noon today I certainly would have gone with the lower snow totals. But none of the maps had the warm air hanging on that long. In fact upper 20s were forecast by early this morning on all of our model runs. We likely will not see those upper 20s now until early evening. So chalk this win up to the warm air and not the snow. The good news is that we will be able to get out and enjoy some sectional basketball games tonight. Look for some great Hoosier basketball! Sportsmanship, win or lose is important. So I will keep my head up ready for another battle with Indiana weather. It certainly builds character. Thanks for all your support, win or lose, and I know there are a lot of you out there that were happy nature spared us the worst this time around.
I am going to go heat up some more spaghetti for Lauren and I at lunch. Yes! My three year old still has me laughing and smiling and keeps everything in perspective. I will post all the snow totals on here later today including a whopping 12" of snow for a location in Indiana. There were several spots in our northern counties and viewing area that did end up in the 6 inch range, so the forecast was not a total lost cause. Now bundle up and be careful of falling temperatures tonight and a few slick spots. Any additional snow accumulations will be less than an inch and wind chills will fall to near zero by morning.