We could still have some lowland flooding problems, but based on the latest maps in early Saturday afternoon significant flooding is looking less likely around the area. The storm has taken a big turn to the left just like we have seen all winter long. Two of our three models are trending closer to .75" of rather than close to an inch of rain. This is the break we have been all hoping and praying for. This would keep the Wabash from rising to the levels we saw the previous two flood. Now since these La Nina storms are known to be very erratic we will still have to watch things closely and I still plan on coming into work on Sunday just in case. Why has forecasting storms this winter been anything but easy? Well, I tried to explain it for you and Chris in this e-mail.
Mike-How can I explain to the children (who in the 5th grade I teach how to read a couple of them) why the models have been so off with a couple of storms this year? They are asking...and I honestly don't know how to explain it so that they can understand. I know that the models are not perfect....and that atmospheric conditions can change....Also--what is your gut telling you for this weekend?? Thanks! Chris
Good question Chris, a La Nina is known to produce a highly energetic jet stream that roarsin off the Pacific with a parade of storms. These storms come crashing into the West and Midwest at over 100 to 150 mph. In response to this stormy pattern, a much stronger Bermuda high sets up off the EastCoast...almost like you would see in May. Remember nature seeks balance so low pressure out West brings a corresponding High pressure to the East. This strong high pressure tends to steer developing storms much farther west as a result due to the clockwise circulation around the Bermuda high. It basically detours storms around its huge influence playing havoc with all meteorologists! Also our models have trouble handling things flying at us at over 100 mph and when you add in huge differences in temperatures every few days it can cause even more error.The math the computer is doing is correct, it just cannot keep up fast enough. It goes to show you that nature is in control!
Also, to all our Florida friends that check this blog everday to check on loved ones back here at home, this special Saturday update was just for you! Finally I have some good news to share with you! Mom and Dad thanks for my Valentine's package from Jacksonville and good luck to all the marathon runners at Jacksonville Beach this weekend. It looks a bit warm with race temperatures in the 60s to start and ending well into the 70s with sunshine. This means to go to plan B with more water breaks and it will not be a race to try to set a personal record. This is a reminder my marathon in Washington, D.C. is only a few weeks away. Nature has kept me in good shape that is for sure!