Friday, September 12, 2008

The Perfect Storm Closes in on Lafayette As I Remember the Perfect Grandfather



Well that mackerel sky gave the forecast away yesterday and told us what we could expect. Mackerel sky, mackerel sky soon the rain will fly! We have been very lucky on our weekend weather throughout 2008! So remember no complaints and I am only the messenger. :) In the 36 weekends leading up to this one we have only had about 5 inches of precipitation. This is running well below average. Unfortunately, the laws of averages are catching up to us. Some areas have the potential to double our yearly weekend rainfall this weekend alone. You see most models have us in the 2.5 inch to 4 inch range but we cannot rule out isolated higher amounts especially those areas that have thunderstorms. I guess nature is making up for lost time. This perfect storm scenario should really be called a nightmare storm for this coming up weekend, but let's keep this positive. There will be occasional breaks in the rain possibly this evening and for a portion of our Saturday and Sunday. I will fine tune this tonight on the newscast.

Even though flooding will become a possibility I DO NOT SEE ANOTHER 100 YEAR FLOOD COMING OUR WAY LIKE WE SAW IN JANUARY. We will not have a blizzard in the northern watershed of the Wabash and melt down 15 to 20 inches of snow in four days on a frozen ground and will not have 10 inches of rain on top of it! No way no how Ike! There is no snow in sight and not even Ike could top bring us that much rain here at home. But with that said flooding will still be a big concern by later Sunday into next week and flood watches may have to be posted. All flooding has to be taken seriously and it is Indiana's number one weather killer during severe weather. Our weather team will keep you updated and watch those rivers and streams like a hawk. You can see below why I am concerned about us here at home. We have an unusual set-up of moisture coming in from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean and then you add in the remnants of a hurricane. Amazing! This just does not happen this often in this part of the country. The last time we saw something like this may have been during Carla in 1961. That hurricane also hit the Texas coast.


Blog Question of the Day: How much rain did the remnants of Hurricane Carla bring parts of the Midwest back in 1961?

The latest on Ike is that it may not make landfall as more than a category two hurricane. Its pressure slowly rose overnight last night.The problem will be its extremely large size. When you have something the size of Texas trying to hit the coastline of Texas there will be devastation and I am very concerned about a storm surge taking out a good chunk of real estate and coastline. Look at this behemeth below.


So again the good news is that its size probably will keep it getting much stronger and it is so big it actually wrapped in a little dry air. Secondly it is also passing over the Gulf waters that Gustav went over, so there is less of an oceanic heat content it could tap. But as it closes in on land I think it will make an attempt to strengthen once again closer to a hurricane with 115 mph winds. I do expect Houston will see some hurricane force winds with gusts to near 90 mph. So this is still a very serious storm whether it be called a category 2 or a major category 3 storm. It will be a doozy and the worst hurricane to hit the Galveston/Houston area since Alicia in 1983. What this monster means for us is that its track could still stay a couple hundred miles south of us and we still get walloped with a ton of rain. The latest track as of early Friday morning looks like this.


Instead of taking a northern Kentucky track like I showed during Thursday evening's newscasts this thing could actually wind up closer to Terre Haute. The low pressure above shows where its position will be by time we head into late Sunday .It will still be a tropical depression at this point and we could have a few wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Stay tuned on this. I will also be watching out for maybe a few strong thunderstorms. So right now it is a waiting game and we all know how finicky these tropical systems are when it comes to their storm track. If the track you see above really happens then we have got problems. I will have updates here on the blog as necessary this weekend and we can all blog away to help keep everybody safe and sound no matter what Ike tries to throw our way.

Last but not least, I wanted to also once again thank Glen Acres for a wonderful day yesterday when we all paid tribute to our heroes on 9/11. One of my heroes is certainly my Grandfather Hayes who moved on to bigger and better things four years ago today. It does not seem like it has already been four years and that is probably because he has had such a profound effect on my life in countless positive ways. He will always be close to me in my heart thanks to the many great memories we shared. I am ready for another pontoon boat ride that is for sure. I know how lucky I was to have spent lots of time with him growing up and one of the things we liked doing before our long famous walks was eating fresh Maryland crabs. I can still see him pouring that Old Bay Seasoning on them while cooking them up in the crab pot. He would also pour his secret recipe on them while cooking. This I will never give away. Of course I will never forget him chasing a crab that got loose on the kitchen floor."Deedad" would have loved this forecast. He always seemed to like a nice soaking rain and that is certainly our weather theme today. So this one if for you Deedad! I will check back soon. Have a great day! Remember to keep that sunny outlook! For every rainy day in Indiana there are two sunny days.

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the early morning update Mike!! I hope you will add more details if the forecast and storm path change later today though!

ML

Anonymous said...

Here in Laf. we had a down pour around 3:00 am. Woke me up! Its sooo humid and feels like they heavens could break loose again soon!

Anonymous said...

It's not raining at this point and time but I do have .55" in the rain gauge. Boy oh boy do we have more rain to come!!!!! Mike I was looking at some of my map's and rainfall amount's and they are saying the same as your's around 2 to 4 inches and then there is a chance we could hit 5" in heavy band's. Also wind gusts! Today only wind gusts of 10 to 15 Mph but tomorrow (Saturday) is when we could see wind gusts of 25 to 30 Mph. So a lot of stuff to be going on for the next few day's but some good new's is we are not in a severe weather risk however flood is severe enough!

Everyone try to stay DRY in this WET weather and have a great day.....

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

Kanas is already getting flooding. Hurricane Ike is deadly!

Anonymous said...

watching texas flood right now and ike is still like 200 miles away from texas it is scary so much worse then katrina was

Anonymous said...

Yep and getting worse, in about an hour all emergency help for those in need to get out of the path of Ike will come to a stop. The winds are already near hurricane force in many locations.

Anyone in need to fill up the gas tank better doing so asap. The gas prices are already going up! Monster Ike is going to cause a lot of problems for all of us!

I saw footage from Hati of a woman caught in razor wire fencing, trying to get food, many without for at least 4 days. Made me sick to my stomach!

Say a prayer!

Anonymous said...

Hurricane Ike is around 211 miles away from Galveston TX, the pressure is 954mb Which has drooped from 956mb as well as it was going 13 mph and is now going 12 mph. Still a CAT 2 some have it going to a CAT 3 and other's are keeping it at a CAT 2. The water's are very very warm near the TX, coast.

It sure is something!! I'll check back in soon.

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

They are saying whether a Cat 1,2,3 this storm is so huge, 800 miles wide and is packing so much power! He is now 198 miles from Texas. 20 foot storm surge is expected.Even people living in 2 story homes are in extreme danger. I am sorry for those who chose not to leave and ride out the storm. 12 hours of 90mph plus nightmare of winds they will be facing. And the huge amount of flooding that is already accuring!

Anonymous said...

They are saying whether a Cat 1,2,3 this storm is so huge, 800 miles wide and is packing so much power! He is now 198 miles from Texas. 20 foot storm surge is expected.Even people living in 2 story homes are in extreme danger. I am sorry for those who chose not to leave and ride out the storm. 12 hours of 90mph plus nightmare of winds they will be facing. And the huge amount of flooding that is already accuring!

Anonymous said...

They just cut off evacutation help.When winds reach 30mph no emergency crew will be out! Ike is now 900 miles across. Fl is getting pounded too! Talk about t-storms here at night, we cant see the sky, Ike is going to make land fall when its dark. Those poor people

Anonymous said...

There is only 6mph wind difference in a strong cat 2 or cat 3 hurrician

Anonymous said...

Justin and others, where are you getting your Ike updates from?
ML

Anonymous said...

Hurricane Tracker.com and CNN on line,

Anonymous said...

Here ML try this.

thttp://www.noaawatch.gov/2008/ike.phphis.

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

Sorry ML that one don't work try this one lol.....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

I did go on NOAA also. If you go to Yahoo News, there are videos of the storm surge in Texas already, with waves flowing through homes on the coast, it is so disturbing. And the hurricane is not even there yet.

ML

Anonymous said...

Here is the Yahoo link, you go to Yahoo.com, search Gavelston under "Video" section. I hope this works.


http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=9705859&ch=4226713&src=news

ML

Anonymous said...

also cnn and fox on like gives live videos, and there is always TV in events as huge as this!

Anonymous said...

Thank's ML.

Looking at the wind gusts for tomorrow afternoon we could see wind gusts between 25 and 30 Mph some could get as high as 35 Mph. There will be limb's in the yard tomorrow lol.....

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

The pressure has gone up a bit from 954mb to 957mb. Still moveing at 12mph and is now 168 mile's away from Galveston TX,

Update for Lafayette IN, Just been a light rain through out most of the day.

Justin in Lafayette

Anonymous said...

Hi Bloggers,

I just got home from a busy day, turned on the TV, Amazing hurricane Ike! I am watching the US Coast Gaurd rescuing folks that are stranded in vehicles from the quick flooding. I feel so bad for all!

The beautiful Gulf is raging!

Teri in Laf.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, I don't watch tv, unless it is for Mike's updates during severe weather!

Anonymous said...

If you have friends or family in the path of Ike you should be in contact with them now, for phone towers ect are expected to be blown down. Wide spread!

Anonymous said...

history live right before our eyes! Something to watch!

Anonymous said...

did some areas such as Chicago receive 5 1/2 to 7 inches of rain from hurricane Carla?

Anonymous said...

ML if you watch videos on the computer why not watch whats is occuring live on TV. There is wonderful info regarding the severe weather from IKE! Yes and I do understand if you do not have cable alot of folks dont.

Anonymous said...

Hey Mike I was looking up some major Hurricane's and came over hurricane Tico,it said it made landfall over western Mexico, before it made it's way up to us This was in 1983, They said it was one of the wetest tropical cyclone's to impact our state with a total of 8" inches of rain. I know that is not TX, like carla but still that sounded bad!

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

A flood watch has just been put out for Pulaski, Cass, White, and Fulton, countie.

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

Yes Justin, sounds like a lot of rain! Lets keep our fingers crossed for those in the flood plains and they stay safe. I have been reading the blog sounds as though you have been tracking Ike, scary isnt it?

Teri in Laf.

Anonymous said...

Yes teri it is and to make matters worse Benton, Newton, and Jasper, countie has just been put into the flood watch as well.

I seen on tv a man driveing in his car in at least a foot and a half deep what was he thinking?

Justin in Lafayette.