Well that mackerel sky gave the forecast away yesterday and told us what we could expect. Mackerel sky, mackerel sky soon the rain will fly! We have been very lucky on our weekend weather throughout 2008! So remember no complaints and I am only the messenger. :) In the 36 weekends leading up to this one we have only had about 5 inches of precipitation. This is running well below average. Unfortunately, the laws of averages are catching up to us. Some areas have the potential to double our yearly weekend rainfall this weekend alone. You see most models have us in the 2.5 inch to 4 inch range but we cannot rule out isolated higher amounts especially those areas that have thunderstorms. I guess nature is making up for lost time. This perfect storm scenario should really be called a nightmare storm for this coming up weekend, but let's keep this positive. There will be occasional breaks in the rain possibly this evening and for a portion of our Saturday and Sunday. I will fine tune this tonight on the newscast.
Even though flooding will become a possibility I DO NOT SEE ANOTHER 100 YEAR FLOOD COMING OUR WAY LIKE WE SAW IN JANUARY. We will not have a blizzard in the northern watershed of the Wabash and melt down 15 to 20 inches of snow in four days on a frozen ground and will not have 10 inches of rain on top of it! No way no how Ike! There is no snow in sight and not even Ike could top bring us that much rain here at home. But with that said flooding will still be a big concern by later Sunday into next week and flood watches may have to be posted. All flooding has to be taken seriously and it is Indiana's number one weather killer during severe weather. Our weather team will keep you updated and watch those rivers and streams like a hawk. You can see below why I am concerned about us here at home. We have an unusual set-up of moisture coming in from the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean and then you add in the remnants of a hurricane. Amazing! This just does not happen this often in this part of the country. The last time we saw something like this may have been during Carla in 1961. That hurricane also hit the Texas coast.
Blog Question of the Day: How much rain did the remnants of Hurricane Carla bring parts of the Midwest back in 1961?
The latest on Ike is that it may not make landfall as more than a category two hurricane. Its pressure slowly rose overnight last night.The problem will be its extremely large size. When you have something the size of Texas trying to hit the coastline of Texas there will be devastation and I am very concerned about a storm surge taking out a good chunk of real estate and coastline. Look at this behemeth below.
So again the good news is that its size probably will keep it getting much stronger and it is so big it actually wrapped in a little dry air. Secondly it is also passing over the Gulf waters that Gustav went over, so there is less of an oceanic heat content it could tap. But as it closes in on land I think it will make an attempt to strengthen once again closer to a hurricane with 115 mph winds. I do expect Houston will see some hurricane force winds with gusts to near 90 mph. So this is still a very serious storm whether it be called a category 2 or a major category 3 storm. It will be a doozy and the worst hurricane to hit the Galveston/Houston area since Alicia in 1983. What this monster means for us is that its track could still stay a couple hundred miles south of us and we still get walloped with a ton of rain. The latest track as of early Friday morning looks like this.
Instead of taking a northern Kentucky track like I showed during Thursday evening's newscasts this thing could actually wind up closer to Terre Haute. The low pressure above shows where its position will be by time we head into late Sunday .It will still be a tropical depression at this point and we could have a few wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Stay tuned on this. I will also be watching out for maybe a few strong thunderstorms. So right now it is a waiting game and we all know how finicky these tropical systems are when it comes to their storm track. If the track you see above really happens then we have got problems. I will have updates here on the blog as necessary this weekend and we can all blog away to help keep everybody safe and sound no matter what Ike tries to throw our way.
Last but not least, I wanted to also once again thank Glen Acres for a wonderful day yesterday when we all paid tribute to our heroes on 9/11. One of my heroes is certainly my Grandfather Hayes who moved on to bigger and better things four years ago today. It does not seem like it has already been four years and that is probably because he has had such a profound effect on my life in countless positive ways. He will always be close to me in my heart thanks to the many great memories we shared. I am ready for another pontoon boat ride that is for sure. I know how lucky I was to have spent lots of time with him growing up and one of the things we liked doing before our long famous walks was eating fresh Maryland crabs. I can still see him pouring that Old Bay Seasoning on them while cooking them up in the crab pot. He would also pour his secret recipe on them while cooking. This I will never give away. Of course I will never forget him chasing a crab that got loose on the kitchen floor."Deedad" would have loved this forecast. He always seemed to like a nice soaking rain and that is certainly our weather theme today. So this one if for you Deedad! I will check back soon. Have a great day! Remember to keep that sunny outlook! For every rainy day in Indiana there are two sunny days.