Weather Footnote: My official forecast was for us to have close to 10 days of 90 degrees or above this summer which is below Lafayette's average of 16. I still think we add to our total, but maybe not until October! More to come on this here on the blog this week!
Speaking of seasons that run through November 30th, hurricane season is now in high gear with four storms we are now tracking! We have the remnants of Gustav (which will bring needed rain to us!!), Hanna (heading to South Carolina as a hurricane with over 100 mph winds by Friday), Ike (heading to Florida and maybe the Gulf once again next week), and Josephine (hopefully a fish storm that will recurve). This brings our named storms to 10 which is average for the season. So I am almost 99% sure we will have at least one more named storm between now and the end of November which will wrap up another above average hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. Take a look at the tropical wave parade. Usually the peak of the season is the second week of September, not the very beginning of September and this is giving me more confidence about calling for an early winter.
The mice of Lafayette may agree. Take a look at a note from a weather watcher.
We have been hearing that the mice are SUPER early about coming into the houses this year, etc.
We are noticing that out here in the country as well as the spiders and other things that usually don't get this bad until October!
I wonder if that means anything for winter or an early cold snap?
SEND ON THE RAIN
The one thing that really matters to us here at home is will the remnants of Gustav bring us our needed rain! Here is a hint.....that is right I quickly turned off the Prangley sprinkler and have made a huge announcement to my neighbors this afternoon. I yelled it at the top of my lungs and ran a lap around the house! I have not done this since Nick Novak of the Redskins beat the Dallas Cowboys with a last second kick. Could it be our first significant rain in a long time on the way! The Redskins do not play until Thursday night. Tune in tonight to find out the real story. In the meantime, stay cool, and be smart! I will help keep you cool tonight with winter particulars!
Weather Footnote: Specific Winter Snowfall and Temperatures for Lafayette:
November (Winter arrives a month early)
Temperatures: 36.8 degrees (4 degrees below average)
Snowfall: 4" (3 inches above average) Total Precip: slightly above average
December (Can we hang on for a White Christmas before the early thaw....it will be a close call) Temperatures: 29.6 degrees (1 degree above average) Snowfall: 6" (average) Total Precip: slightly below average
January (A bad dream for all snow lovers as we warm up and dry out) Temperatures: 26.9 degrees (4 degrees above average) Snowfall: 4" (3.5 inches below average) Total Precip: below average
February (A good month to work on your golf game or celebrate the 2 year blizzard anniversary with an outdoor cookout)Temperatures:30.7 degrees (3 degrees above average) Snowfall: 2" of slush Total Precip. Slightly below average
March (winter tries to make a brief return with ice a concern) Temperatures: 39 degrees (near normal) Snowfall: 3" icefall: 1" Total Precip: Below Average
April (April Fools....not with snow but with record-breaking high temperatures near 80!!)
This is the preliminary winter outlook and I will give another update around mid-October when more data comes in. There are still several reasons why our winter could go from snowless to snowy and cold. I will footnote winter updates over the coming weeks so you can see all the different things that go into making a long-range forecast. Right now, I am sticking with an early winter and early Spring scenario. We will have about 20" less snow than last winter ( AM I REALLY TYPING THIS) with drier and warmer conditions and we should save on the heating bills which will be nice.
Total Snowfall forecast for 2008-09 winter: 19"
Lafayette snowfall average: 22.4"
Blizzard chances: 4%
Winter Temperatures: 2 degrees above average