Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Hottest Weather in 364 Days Scorches Lafayette! Slow it Down at Football Practice!

Here is how it looked from your Live Doppler 18 on Monday evening. You could almost cut the air with a knife! Officially the dog days ended August 4th, but it is Indiana.

Stop the presses! Real summer weather has arrived just in time for the official start of meteorological autumn that runs from September 1st through November 30th. After today we will be up to five days of 90 degrees or above at the Lafayette airport, although we have had 8 days of 90 or above on the southside of Lafayette where most people live. But today's high will be 93 with a heat index that could hit near 100 which is pretty impressive, but also dangerous. All those participating in after-school athletics need to be smart, slow it down, take plenty of breaks, and drink plenty of fluids and preferably sports drinks. We have a lot kids in great shape but the human body is no match for nature. It is dangerous to the human body once our heat index rises above 94, especially when we just have not had weather like this since last summer.

Weather Footnote: My official forecast was for us to have close to 10 days of 90 degrees or above this summer which is below Lafayette's average of 16. I still think we add to our total, but maybe not until October! More to come on this here on the blog this week!

Speaking of seasons that run through November 30th, hurricane season is now in high gear with four storms we are now tracking! We have the remnants of Gustav (which will bring needed rain to us!!), Hanna (heading to South Carolina as a hurricane with over 100 mph winds by Friday), Ike (heading to Florida and maybe the Gulf once again next week), and Josephine (hopefully a fish storm that will recurve). This brings our named storms to 10 which is average for the season. So I am almost 99% sure we will have at least one more named storm between now and the end of November which will wrap up another above average hurricane season in the Atlantic basin. Take a look at the tropical wave parade. Usually the peak of the season is the second week of September, not the very beginning of September and this is giving me more confidence about calling for an early winter.

The mice of Lafayette may agree. Take a look at a note from a weather watcher.

We have been hearing that the mice are SUPER early about coming into the houses this year, etc.
We are noticing that out here in the country as well as the spiders and other things that usually don't get this bad until October!
I wonder if that means anything for winter or an early cold snap?

The one thing that really matters to us here at home is will the remnants of Gustav bring us our needed rain! Here is a hint.....that is right I quickly turned off the Prangley sprinkler and have made a huge announcement to my neighbors this afternoon. I yelled it at the top of my lungs and ran a lap around the house! I have not done this since Nick Novak of the Redskins beat the Dallas Cowboys with a last second kick. Could it be our first significant rain in a long time on the way! The Redskins do not play until Thursday night. Tune in tonight to find out the real story. In the meantime, stay cool, and be smart! I will help keep you cool tonight with winter particulars!

Weather Footnote: Specific Winter Snowfall and Temperatures for Lafayette:

November (Winter arrives a month early)
Temperatures: 36.8 degrees (4 degrees below average)
Snowfall: 4" (3 inches above average) Total Precip: slightly above average

December (Can we hang on for a White Christmas before the early thaw....it will be a close call) Temperatures: 29.6 degrees (1 degree above average) Snowfall: 6" (average) Total Precip: slightly below average

January (A bad dream for all snow lovers as we warm up and dry out) Temperatures: 26.9 degrees (4 degrees above average) Snowfall: 4" (3.5 inches below average) Total Precip: below average

February (A good month to work on your golf game or celebrate the 2 year blizzard anniversary with an outdoor cookout)Temperatures:30.7 degrees (3 degrees above average) Snowfall: 2" of slush Total Precip. Slightly below average

March (winter tries to make a brief return with ice a concern) Temperatures: 39 degrees (near normal) Snowfall: 3" icefall: 1" Total Precip: Below Average

April (April Fools....not with snow but with record-breaking high temperatures near 80!!)

This is the preliminary winter outlook and I will give another update around mid-October when more data comes in. There are still several reasons why our winter could go from snowless to snowy and cold. I will footnote winter updates over the coming weeks so you can see all the different things that go into making a long-range forecast. Right now, I am sticking with an early winter and early Spring scenario. We will have about 20" less snow than last winter ( AM I REALLY TYPING THIS) with drier and warmer conditions and we should save on the heating bills which will be nice.

Total Snowfall forecast for 2008-09 winter: 19"

Lafayette snowfall average: 22.4"

Blizzard chances: 4%

Winter Temperatures: 2 degrees above average


Brow said...

It sure did feel pretty warm today...I think that we will be missing it by the time Feb and March roll in.

Yes, we do need a bit of rain...I thought that it was going to get wet around here earlier, but the clusters just vanished on the radar.

We will see what tomorrow bring though. I edged my sidewalk and curb over the long weekend and was hoping some kind of ran would do the cleaning for me. :)

Anonymous said...

Well, i do NOT like that winter forecast! Has anyone noticed that in past years with a mild winter we have more ice storms??? Oh, my....that scares me to pieces! And dont forget if you can golf in January it is warm enough for storms bringing flooding rains again. Nope, give me a normal winter with snow and cold temps---like it is supposed to be :-)

Sorry to be a doomsday forecaster, LOL...and now to report I had a high of 93* today at 4:04 p.m.

Brow the clouds came here, too but did not leave a drop.

Mary Anne in Remington