Saturday, November 20, 2010

Jellyfish Low Keeps Its Tentacles of Rain Away; Now Go Make a Difference Today

Saturday, November 20, 2010 (Mike Prangley's Blog-11 am)

What a morning show! Did I really hold a pine snake? There are more charity events this weekend going on than I have seen in several weeks. There are so many ways you can make a difference today while having fun. Where do I begin? It all starts with the weather forecast that I take very seriously. It is my Super Bowl and I become even more fired up when there are so many great events. The good news is I agree with the expected rainfall map above which is not always the case. Instead of wrestling with a bull to get energy out this morning I held a pine snake and I have to admit I was a little worried but what does not kill you makes you stronger and yes I AM A MUCH STRONGER MAN now and ready to give you my best to get your big weekend forecast right!

Where do I begin? Let me just keep it simple. We have an inverted trof between Amelia Island and the Gulf Stream and this tantalizing trof will keep its tentacles of rain showers mainly offshore. These areas of low pressure are caused by the still very warm Gulf Stream that still has water temperatures near 80 while our inland locations are in many cases 30-40 degrees cooler especially in the early morning hours this time of year. This forms a trof which is another fancy term for extended lower pressure. So basically you can say an inverted trof is a Gulf Stream warm front. Looking at the pressures and surface winds this morning it does not look all that strong or impressive with most of the shower activity very light and confined to Cumberland Island. There have been a few sprinkles at Fernandina Beach but that is about it. There have been many weekends were these tantalizing trofs have ruined many plans. But not this weekend. You can see the expected rainfall map above which verifies what I am thinking.

 I have re-named our weather-maker the jellyfish low because most of its rain will fall over the jellyfish and if you are boating I still think you will be able to fish in mainly dry open seas so do not cancel those plans either.

Temperature-wise there will be a huge range. Some areas near the beaches that will be cloudier with a brief sprinkle possible will have highs in the lower 70s while inland areas that will be sunnier could climb well into the 70s to near 80. It is one of those days were you pick a number between 70 and 80 and you will be right depending on who you are talking about in our viewing area. The good news is all of our plans look great. There is the Right Whale 5K at the Sea Walk Pavilion at Jacksonville Beach. There is the American Lung Association Run/Walk at Nocatee. At 3:00 p.m. I am gearing up for the Run for McKenzie which ends at the 50 yard line at Everbank Field. I got new shoes for this event and I am ready to run! The best part is all of these events are for great causes. Do not forget the Town Center Holiday celebration tonight and the Nights of Lights in historic St. Augustine. Speaking of which there is no crisp, chilly holiday air on the weather map so if you want to get in the holiday spirit you will be able to do so in a hurry in nice comfortable 60s tonight under a mostly full moon. Any shower activity will likely hold off until later tonight and not be heavy or last very long. Check out the great forecast below! Now I am getting in the holiday spirit!

Tonight we will talk about our full moon on the way and your big Thanksgiving forecast. It looks like it is not just getting hot in the kitchen that is for sure. There will be a front that will try to bring us rain with our mashed potatoes and gravy. I will let you know what to expect. Have a great day and yes you can make a difference. It all starts with the power of one. You can do it! God bless you!

1 comment:

Prangley said...

Thanks for reading the blog and your kind words. You are correct the term trof is actually spelled trough. But the meteorological acronym for trough is trof...most meteorologists just use the acronym trof and I got in the habit of just using the acronym since I have read thousands of weather discussions from the National Weather Service offices across the country that just use the acronym TROF. So yes you can use both.