Friday, December 17, 2010

Ski coats to pj's & record lows to record highs!!

Friday, December 17, 2010 (4 p.m.)

It was a motivational Friday after all! This morning I said we should all treat every day like Friday and it would bring a new enthusiasm to our life. I may have pepped nature up as well. Can you believe Palatka has just checked in with a high of 82 degrees which would be new record high. Just 2 mornings ago they had record lows in Palatka in the lower 20s. We have seen temperature rises in Florida but I cannot remember any as dramatic as this. It was warm enough for the kids at the bus stop this morning to trade in their ski coats for pajamas. I know...pajamas? Well it was their last day of school for this year anyway and the kids celebrated by having pajama day. Saturday will be another strange day with temperatures in Georgia stuck in the 50s while areas near Palatka still near 70. You can see why!

We will have a cold front drifting south through the area. Most folks will take these huge temperature swings as long as they can get some rain for their parched lawns. We are in an extreme drought and today there were several hours of smoke reports at Jacksonville International Airport. Our Live Doppler has picked up more smoke plumes than rain this month. Enough is enough. The position of this front tomorrow will be crucial for our rain chances. Right now the latest model data is working in our favor. Today most of the rain in Georgia was post-frontal which means just to its north. On Saturday with the front sitting south of most of us and with an area of low pressure forming along it I do think it will be a day where we can finally say we will get some beneficial rainfall. It has been a long time when all of us have had a widespread rain that has lasted more than a few minutes. Saturday expect occasional rain showers becoming more numerous in the afternoon. I do not want to jinx this forecast but I am feeling good about this being our most significant rain since November 4th. Here is why. I picked the driest model run of the bunch and it still shows a good .25" to .50" of rain over Jacksonville with more elsewhere. Yes, I do think we can believe this. The .50 to 1" range may be a better idea of what to expect.

Do not focus on the amounts as much as where the blue areas or heavier rains are setting up. Notice the first blue stripe is in Georgia. That is from today's rainfall. Saturday it shows the next blue stripe setting right up through the center of our viewing area. This is very good news. We should have enough lift and moisture to pull it off. The third thing we have in our favor was right above our heads today. Check out the picture.

Yes we had building cumulus clouds this afternoon in St.Johns County where temperatures flirted with 80 degrees. This is a sign of instability and tomorrow our lifted index will drop to -1 which is not too shabby. I do not want to get greedy here, but we cannot rule out thunder! I have already picked up lightning strikes in the Gulf of Mexico today. Since it has been six weeks since our last good rain and it seems like 100 years, I will not rest easy until it actually happens. I know I do not control the weather but every forecast is like my Super Bowl. I have my fingers and toes crossed. Make sure to tune in for Live Doppler updates this weekend. We also have the big Jaguar game in Indianapolis and I will let you know the cold Indiana weather is good news for our Jags. Some jag fans are already dressed up for the game and it is still a couple days away. Check out the blog tomorrow for pictures from some of their biggest fans. Check back for another meteorological phenomenon we normally do not see that may keep most our temperatures above freezing until after Christmas. So much to talk about so little time. It is a good thing I have morning and evening shows this weekend and will take you all the way through Christmas weekend here on the blog and on-air. Thanks for watching and reading. We will have a lot of fun as always! Time to hit the gym. You have to stay in shape to keep up with nature or you will be left in the dust. I am going to go do my rain run is what I will call it! This time just maybe it will help!

No comments: