Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Setting records but being spared severe weather!

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

This picture sent in to First Coast News captures the weather pattern nicely. The pelicans are fat and happy at the Vilano Beach Pier and it looks and feels more like summer out there! Today the magic number for interior inland locations was 85 degrees. That was the record set back in 2005 officially at Jacksonville International. I have reports of 86 at Orange Park, 87 St. Augustine Shores and a whole slew of 85 degree readings from Middleburg to Keystone Heights, and Cecil Field. Macclenny has had a high of 84 but if you factor in the dewpoint reading of 73 it feels more like 90 degrees in the shade!! Last check at the airport it was 83 so it is still possible we did hit 85...but regardless who lives at the airport? This in my book is a record-setting afternoon and it is the same record we talked about here on the blog way back over the weekend! My daughters are ready to go to the pool again, for the second time in a week!! LOL...This is the same week that brought our first frost and freeze! It is a transitional time of year. Now with that said these wild swings can sometimes bring severe weather to Florida. The highest risk area this time of year is the Panhandle but some strong storms can sometimes sneak into our area.

Remember the severe lightning in 2006 that caused a propane tank explosion. In November 2002, 2003, 2004 we had several tornado touchdowns from Escambia to Walton and Appling Counties. Strong     storms jolted the Jacksonville area. So far today Alabama and North Georgia have been hit with EFO tornadoes that will be confirmed near Opelika and Auburn and 60 mph gusts. Here at home some national media outlets paint us in a severe weather outlook. But I think we will be okay here at home. This is the value of getting a forecast from your local weather team. The storms that have caused severe weather today were not just cooler, drier air meeting our warm, tropical air mass. There was an upper-level disturbance than added some extra lift. This upper-level disturbance will continue to quickly race out ahead of our cold front that will not move through our area until early Thursday morning. As a result I am thinking just scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. The thunderstorms will be more like rumbles for Jacksonville metro. Check out the latest CAPES (convective available potential energy for tomorrow morning).

What you want to look for are yellow and deep green areas that usually fuel severe storms this time of year. These CAPE values are non-existent by time the main front moves our way tomorrow morning. Instead we are left with paltry lighter green shades. We may see a few gusts near 35 mph out near I-75 in the Live Oak, Jasper, and Valdosta area first thing on Thursday but this line will not hold together and by time it arrives east of highway 301 it should lose most of its lightning. Meteorologist Steve Smith has you covered with your Two Minute Advantage and at Noon I will have a few leftover showers to track with the boaters. The cooler, drier air will be the big story. We also have a big meteor shower coming Thursday night!

I will have more on this but first I leave you with a picture from Laura in Battle Ground, Indiana. They had 60 mph gusts and quarter size hail along with a green sky. Here at home this same front will move through but it will be remembered for the record heat it helped to bring us! Have a great night and I will see you soon!

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