Saturday, November 5, 2011

Gales of November today, showers move in tonight!

Saturday, November 5, 2011

I had lots of feedback from soccer moms this morning on Good Morning Jacksonville and it can be summed up in three words...COLD, COLD, COLD....Suzanne was kind enough to send me in this picture between games. It also gave her a chance to thaw out her so-called frozen ears. She has some afternoon games to go to and unfortunately it will not feel much better. What a great Mom! The kids will appreciate this eventually even if you have to wait a few What made those mid-50s feel so much colder was that north breeze! Cover up those ears for the afternoon games because it will only get worse with gusts at times from 30 to 35 mph.

It is that time of year when we get nor'easters that fire up off in the Atlantic caused by cold north winds meeting our tropical Gulf Stream that is still close to 80 degrees. This temperature gradient helps form a natural area of low pressure in the atmosphere and as we know the wind takes its cues from pressure differences between our ocean low and higher pressure to the north causes the wind to blow with gusto! The northeast wind is force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale which means we will have gale force wind gusts near 40 mph. To put it in perspective you only need 39 mph sustained winds around a warm core low pressure to have a named tropical storm. While not a tropical storm, we will can call this storm the Force 8 Nor'easter and it will be a force to be reckoned with throughout the weekend into next week!

The good news is we will not have a raw rain to go with the wind and ominous clouds today. Here is our futurecast pinpoint when and where we can expect the rain. Shower activity should hold off at the beaches until this evening and will not spread inland until late tonight. This means it looks good downtown for the fair tonight as well. The big story again today will be the chilly wind. Take the ear plugs and jackets if you are heading out to the Naval Air Show. Highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s with wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

A gale warning (wind gusts of 39 mph or higher) will continue offshore with 10-15 foot seas and wind gusts to 40 mph. A high surf advisory is also in effect for minor beach erosion due to 8 foot breakers today.

Rip currents will remain dangerous even for surfers. This nor'easter will linger through at least Monday with showers becoming more likely Sunday into Monday. But rain coverage should only be 30% tops and it will not be an all day rain! Check out the European accumulated rainfall map above. It shows most of the rain should stay east of highway 301 and many of us will not see one drop of rain this weekend especially in Georgia and interior Florida. So I would not cancel plans but just have your umbrellas handy. Temperatures will remain below normal with the cloud cover and a northeast wind continuing on Sunday. While warmer highs will only be near 70 once again which is a good six degrees below our 30 year average.

Our long-range forecast includes temperatures bouncing back near 80 by Wednesday and Thursday of next week ahead of our new weather system that could bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of the deep South and Midwest. By time it gets here it should be in a weakened state with a few showers returning late Thursday. Have a wonderful weekend! Enjoy your extra hour of sleep and turn those clocks back one hour before going to sleep tonight. It is also a good time to change your smoke detector batteries. Take care. My wife has some scrumptious chilly waiting for me. I will see you tonight at 6, 7, and 11! Thanks for reading and watching!

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