Sunday, June 19, 2011

A Sizzling Frizzlin' Father's Day! More smoke than rain today

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Happy Father's Day! I want to take time to thank my three daughters for being my true inspiration and every day is Father's Day for me, because they are gifts from God and I know just how lucky I am. I also wanted to thank my Dad for always being there for me. I would not be doing weather without him. After all I remember him teaching me about clouds while flying our kite when I was just three years old. Talk about a huge day! Today is my Mom's birthday as well and I look forward to celebrating with Mom and Dad over a nice big dinner. Thank you Mom for taking me to the library every week when I was growing up just so I could read another weather book. It is the little things in life that really do add up in a big way and I am very thankful!

Now is nature going to show us some love today? Well the weather word of the day is frizzle. That is the sound you hear when bacon is sizzling on a skillet. We are going to be in nature's frying pan and unfortunately it will get a bit smoky again especially from areas of northern Duval County, Nassau County and south Georgia. There will also be smoke along the beaches although not as thick. Inland areas of Putnam County including the Keystone Heights area will also see an increase in the smoke. Notice on the map above that drier air moves in as depicted by the orange "frizzle" bubble. Any storms that do form today will be isolated and confined to areas from Putnam and Marion County southward. Here is the latest Air Quality forecast for today.

Unfortunately smoke will continue to be a problem this week with over 150 wildfires still burning. It will likely get worse before it gets better with the unhealthy area spreading southward by late Monday and especially Tuesday with more of a west northwest flow around an area of high pressure building in. Sea breezes will be weak and not move in until late day.

It will also be dry. You can also expect heat advisories that are in effect today for portions of Georgia and South Carolina to possibly be issued on the First Coast this week as heat indices reach 105-112 here at home with actual highs near 100 through Wednesday. Here are some notes to get you ready for summer!

The summer solstice officially begins Tuesday at 1:16 p.m. and it will feel like it! This picture gives you a hint that today will be a great day to take Dad out on a cool boat ride. Seas will only be at 2-3 feet with a south wind this afternoon at 10-15 kts. Surf looks flat to a foot with a light inland chop. The boat, pool, and ocean will be the places to beat the heat over the next several days. It will be our hottest start to summer since 1990! The drought and wildfires will also be our big stories as we head into summer and here is the latest assessment from the Climate Prediction Center!

This map shows us painted in green which mean improving conditions. This matches my forecast very well. Nature is showing some love!! Unfortunately for Texas it is not looking very good as the center of high pressure sits over the Lone Star State. Here in Florida we will be dominated by a more moist flow out of the south and southeast with Bermuda High pressure in control. This is something we did not see last summer when the drought really took hold. Speaking of the drought. Just how much rain will it take to finally get rid of it?

It will take a lot! Right now we need a good 10 to 15 inches of rain as you can see above. Poor Miami needs almost two feet of rain. Now I did check some historical records. In 1998 we did flip to a pattern that had rain on 21 of 31 days in July and a tropical system brought nice rains in September. This year I am expecting a similar flip and I feel that it has already begun. So we need to stay patient. Not only is positive thinking on our side but SCIENCE. The one concern I do have is even though we would all love a tropical system to bring us rain I am worried about South Florida. Their hurricane chances go through the roof after having dry Spring weather. The 16% chance of a hurricane South Florida has every year goes up to about 50% in this type of situation. So while nature may turn on the rain spigots I will keep my fingers crossed that we can get some of that needed rain from the tropics without a devastating storm. Make sure to check back here on the blog tomorrow and we will be tracking tropical moisture that will once again increase our rain chances in a big way by late week with highs finally back down where they belong. But for now it is all about Dad and patience. Have a wonderful Father's Day!

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