Thursday, December 4, 2008

On Track for Our Coldest & Snowiest December in at Least 8 Years

The sky was on fire in Chalmers as Kandy Teel woke up on Wednesday morning. Great job Kandy! These high cirrostratus clouds were telling us another arctic front was on the way. Red sky in the morning take morning. It was also a sign that we are in a very busy weather pattern that is showing no signs of letting up anytime soon. Laura Hale also took heed of nature's warning with another inspirational shot of a memorable sunrise over Lafayette.

Why am I still up at this late, late hour? I do listen and watch for warning signs for nature and those pictures above are very telling of what lies ahead not just for this week but weeks ahead. Who can sleep at a time like this. I can tell you I love what I do but realize I am a bit crazy for being up this late. But I really do have a good reason. It is what lies ahead that has me burning the midnight oil or in my case singing 80s music while looking at the latest long-range models. I am cranking Abba and licking my chops over some of the most interesting data I have seen since WLFI was first to warn you about the blizzard of 2007. Yes! The stories I will have for my grand kids. You know it is good news for snow-lovers when I am singing. The key stat of the night is that we average 5.9 inches of snow in December. This year I expect us to triple that number. I like us in the 15 to 20 inch range for snowfall just for the month of December and we very well could have a season's worth of snow which is 22.4 inches if all works out like some of these models are telling me. If we were playing cards nature has a trump card or all the cards in place for not just a cold and snowy month, but a historic one. I have seen this coming since August and it is amazing that everything is in place. So far as we look at the almanac there really is nothing too impressive. Don't be fooled.

The first few days of December we have just under 2 inches of snow, but by next weekend we may already have more than a month's worth of snow. The Atlantic Oscillation remains negative, the North Atlantic Oscillation is negative, the Pacific North-American Teleconnection is positive and the MJO is heading into phase 7 which means a more amplified jet stream pattern that can incorporate more tropical moisture into the pattern as we head into the next couple of weeks. Thunderstorms are rumbling in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific and moving east. Watch out! So say goodbye to the nuisance snows we are having this week into this weekend. I am expecting at least 2 snowstorms of 4 to 6 inches or more and things will likely start getting more interesting for the "big one" next week and the rest of December. Here is the map I have been working on to show you just how much of an extreme turn this pattern could take. This is snowfall JUST for the next 11 days.

Do you realize even Louisiana could see snow in the next 2 weeks? This is not a pattern for the faint of heart. All areas shaded in white will have to be on the outlook for snow. I wanted to include Florida, but I could not do that to my dear Mom and Dad. The blue areas will likely have at least one big snowstorm and notice that does include Lafayette.

Now I am going to go have sweet dreams and we will go over more numbers. But for now I want you to digest these December numbers from 2000. This is one of the strong analog months or months from past years in which the weather pattern matches up very well with. I have been talking about this analog year here on the blog for at least the last couple of months. Those numbers don't lie! We need to get ready for real winter weather. We are no longer in the 1990s that is for sure.

1 35 30 33 0.11 1.0
2 32 24 28 0.00 0.0
3 34 18 26 0.00 0.0
4 36 21 29 0.00 0.0
5 36 14 25 0.00 0.0
6 26 15 21 trace 0.1
7 38 23 31 trace 0.2
8 35 13 24 0.00 0.0
9 34 11 23 0.00 0.0
10 44 30 37 trace 0.0
11 37 21 29 1.01 0.7
12 20 4 12 trace trace
13 24 4 14 0.08 5.0
14 25 9 17 0.00 0.0
15 34 6 20 0.01 trace
16 39 17 28 0.07 1.3
17 17 3 10 trace 0.4
18 22 0 11 0.06 2.0
19 19 4 12 trace 0.3
20 20 -3 9 trace 1.5
21 23 2 13 trace 2.0
22 7 -5 1 trace 0.4
23 23 -6 9 trace trace
24 24 -5 10 trace trace
25 12 -12 0 trace trace
26 19 -2 9 trace trace
27 20 10 15 trace 0.2
28 16 -2 7 0.05 2.1
30 27 9 18 0.01 0.2
31 27 18 23 trace 0.1


Officially here at the station we had close to 2 feet of snow. This data was from the Lafayette airport where most of us do not live. This is another example of how historic data cannot always be trusted at first glance. I will have much more coming up later today. Take care and be safe on some of those icy patches out there this morning.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the December forecase Mike! I'm getting so excited now! I can't wait for our first REAL snowfall of the season! No more of the 1-2 inches stuff!

Carrie in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

Sounds GREAT Mike!! We got new snow shovels and have not really got to use them yet! Hope soon!

I keep checking all the models and things can change Fast here in Indiana! I think that is what makes forecasting here fun yet tricky! :-)

Have a great one!

Justin in Lafayette

Anonymous said...

good luck with that forecast
i will go with 10-12 inches

Mary in WL said...

It may be exciting for you to forecast snow but for us who travel for various reasons or commute to work it is just another down day. Try not to salivate so much, ok? We want to be safe this winter season.

Anonymous said...

Wow...thanks Mike, I am excited.
Snow is great...lookin forward to it.

Anonymous said...

Bring it on!!!!!! The more the better.

Anonymous said...

Snow is pretty, a white christmas would be nice, but not so great when many have to be on the roads.

My car doors were frozen shut this morning, I was late for work eventhoug I allowed and extra half hour to go 2 miles.....

Not fun to drive in. Let it snow as long as we all do not have to go out in it, that is drive in it, too many people that think the snow coverd roads are race track which puts many in danger

Anonymous said...

And all I can think of are all the events upcoming. We have a Cantata at church the 14th both morning and evening plus a live performance at one of the nursing homes in Laf next Sunday. PLUS all the appts I have made. I just take one day at a time and hope the snow either holds off or is gone by the morning I have to travel. Darn, see what happens when you get OLD?? :-) :-)

Just pray for safety on the roads. I have read where the state and cities will only have half the salt they had last year.


Anonymous said...

half moon, stars, and snow in remington. Looks really cool. with the snow in the sky casing a christmas spell in the air.

william in remington