Thursday, December 18, 2008

Delay in Freezing Rain May Be Good News

4:25 p.m. Thursday: Ice Storm Update

Expected ice amounts look similar....the only change will be to delay the onset of the freezing rain until mainly after 10 p.m. As a result freezing rain will not switch over to rain until closer to 4 a.m. in Tippecanoe County and 6 a.m. farther north. Areas north of Remington, Monticello, and Logansport are in line for .25" to .50" of ice with locally higher amounts in farther northern Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, and Fulton Counties in the .50" to 1" range if they do in fact get thunder freezing rain. A difference of a couple degrees can make a huge difference in amounts. Stay tuned and I will post the latest maps on here ASAP.



10:59 a.m. Thursday: Ice Storm Update


Yes, I did get some rest last night and I have been awaiting anxiously for the 12 zulu NAM model to come in. I did have a good time blogging and talking to everybody last night. Thanks! Everything does look on track and I do not see any surprises on ice amounts. Early this morning I did raise the possibility that the ice would be delayed. This has been verified this morning. In this case I think it is good news because it will give our tempeatures a few extra hours to rise before the ice arrives and once we get into the heavier rain I expect our 5,000 foot tempearatures to be in the middle 40s. This should mix down to the surface and help warm us above freezing without a problem after midnight thanks to that strong surge of warm air aloft coinciding with the heavier precipitation which will help drag it down to the surface. Here are the latest numbers:

Freezing Rain begins between 7:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m.
A change-over to rain between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m.
Thunderstorms possible between 3 a.m. and 7 a.m.

Crawfordsville ice .10"
Frankfort ice .15"
West Lebanon ice .15"
Lafayette ice: .20/rainfall close to one inch
Kokomo ice: .20"
Fowler ice: .25"
Monticello ice: .25"
Logansport ice: .25"
Remington ice: .30"
Monon ice: .30"
Peru ice: .30"
Medaryville ice: .40"
Winamac ice: .40"
Rochester ice: .40"


The good news is that we should all stay under the critical .50" of ice. Once you get up to that .50" threshold much bigger problems crop up quickly. There will still be some sporadic power outages, small tree limbs down, and travel will not be recommended by later this evening so get all those errands done today. In fact, I am going to go take care of some right now. Be safe. I still like 6 to 10 inches of snow for Chicago. Oh yes! My family in southern Wisconsin could see 12" to 16" of snow!! I will check back with you late this afternoon before the news with more!

75 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thank you so much for the update Mike! It is so helpful.

ML

Anonymous said...

Thanks. This helps ease concerns from nervous poeple like myself.

Anonymous said...

Issued by The National Weather Service
Indianapolis, IN
11:32 am EST, Thu., Dec. 18, 2008

... ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY...

AN ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL MOVE IN AFTER 7 PM THURSDAY... WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AFTER 9 PM. GRADUALLY... WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS... ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA.

AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER.

More Information
... WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST. AS IT DOES... A STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A SITUATION WHERE COLD AIR AT THE GROUND ALLOWS RAIN FALLING TO FREEZE ON SURFACES.

Anonymous said...

Mike, WE NEED SNOW!!!!

Anonymous said...

And I just want to let you all know I may be offline tonight not due to power outage but due to puter problems. It is something I have no control over at this time and hopefully the problem will be resolved when I need to be checking out conditions ONLINE from bloggers and MIKE.

Take care, be safe and PRAY.

Mary Anne in Remington

Anonymous said...

Hope you get all your problems worked out Mary Anne! I would go NUTS if my PC was having problems! :-)

Justin in lafayette

Anonymous said...

... Ice Storm Warning remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to
9 am EST Friday...


Freezing rain will develop mainly after 9 PM EST tonight.
Gradually... warmer air from the south will move northward and
cause temperatures to slowly rise above freezing late tonight into
early Friday morning. Before this happens... ice accumulations
around a quarter of an inch are possible across North Central
Indiana.

An Ice Storm Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Significant amounts of ice accumulations
will make travel dangerous.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
LSC school cancelled all after school activties for this evening. They did so very early this am. GOOD CALL!!

When I was out at 11:00 this morning there was what i think was freezing fog. Iwonder how much ice we will get like all of you are wondering.

December 18, 2008 3:46 PM

Anonymous said...

Oh dear Mary Anne.....dang.

me

Anonymous said...

The Weather Channel has put us in the 0.20 to 0.40 inches of ice range. [Lafayette] I wonder if they are right...I hope not.

Anonymous said...

looks like things could have changed since the am update???

Anonymous said...

The Weather Channel (at weather.com) keeps Tippecanoe County in freezing rain all the way through Friday morning. The rise in temperatures do not occur until tomorrow sometime, from their temperature plots. Just because temps. go to 33 degrees or so does not mean immediate change-over. Am I missing something here? But I pray Mike's optimism comes true. I hate ice. Good luck in the elements, and good luck in the forecasting.

Anonymous said...

I still am looking for The ice to change over to all rain by 3:am or 4:am Friday Morning! With rainfall amounts between Three quarters of an inch to one inch possible!

Ice still in the Tenth to a Quartern inch possible!

We will all keep watching this through out the night!

Justin in lafayette

Anonymous said...

I'm B-a-a-ac-c-c-k!!! YES! Justin I WAS going nuts to think I would not have access to my puter! I go from website to website looking, tracking, reading....but thankfully hubby got me back in working order and I am smiling again :-) :-))

i am off to a meeting and will check in when I get back. The ice board is out (would rather measure snow, believe me!)) have drinking water in jugs, candles and flashlights at the ready....see you all soon!

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

and one more thing...where do i find the updated video of MIke's wx on here???

thanks :-)

Anonymous said...

good luck with that one, the last video I have seen for the last few weeks are of stefainie

Anonymous said...

okay so we get alot of freezing rain the changing to all rain between what hours? If we do get the feesing rain wont it take time for it to melt on the roads and our power lines till the sun shines?

Dont get it, all schools should call a delay or cancel

Just one day school corps!!!! So what if it has to be made up! SAFTY!

Anonymous said...

This is a weather system to be watched, and was stated bu Mike that the roads will be horriable,

I would feel better of knowing that the schools will be smart and make the call early! Better than parents worring About kids at the bus stops. and on foot. Some kids have no option but to walk.

There has not been one delay this year for LSC when there should have been, give the parents a peace of mind of their childrens safty!
I know its finals. so what then then Istep....

Anonymous said...

I got my measuring board out as well Mary anne!

Glad to see you are back up and running! I don't think I will get much sleep tonight! I will have to put on some of my fav music and have a good time tracking!!

Tracking weather is fun and very SERIOUS!

Justin in Lafayette

Anonymous said...

I've been hoping this ice would turn to snow! I NEED snow! I was able to cross country ski up at Potato Creek SP before Thanksgiving, and I can't bear the thought of waiting 'til after Christmas for my next XC ski trip. Mike, please tell me snow is on the way soon!

Aaron from www.XCskiIndiana.com

Anonymous said...

Hey mike
i know your probly busy and all tonight but where in the heck are those maps you promised hours ago... lol.
Thanks for all you do ! I wish indy had a good meteorologist and bloggers like you all, it helps keep messy weather fun.
thanks
Brandon
S.Indy.

Anonymous said...

Hi Justin, yep Mary Anne computer is up and running again, Thanks goodness for her!

Weather tracking is fun, but I have not had much sleep in the last couple of nights, for I wake to check the blog and radars LOL!

Another one of those nights tonight I am afraid:(

Tero

Anonymous said...

Darn it, spelling errors ect:)
Lack of sleep....LOL

TERI

Anonymous said...

The ice is coming late enough that we can all go to bed and when we wake up it will be gone. Sleep tight and dream of a white Christmas.

Anonymous said...

Mike...what happened to HEAVY SNOW on Tuesday...what changed...once this clears up a bit, an update on that would be much appreciated.

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Dont think so about the ice being gone by morining! Checked the radar lately?? Gettin close.

Nope will be bad in the moring rush

Rodney said...

Hey Mike,

If the rain starts at 4:00am, how long will it take for the rain to melt the ice if the temperature is 34 degrees.

Anonymous said...

8:57 the Doppler shows moisture in southern Fountain County...

Anonymous said...

Looks to me sleet and snow before the transistion.

Anonymous said...

Moving in to Tipp co. at this time. Temp is still at 26

Anonymous said...

Mike,
Why dont they put the doppler radar on the home page in case of severe weather. This new site is not as quick to access than the old one. I like the old site with the weather banner going across the top of the home page for quicker access.

Richard

Richard

Anonymous said...

Our scanner just went off with areas for shelter during the storm for Fountain and Warren Counties. This storm may be worse then expected.

Anonymous said...

kokomo-weather.com blog saying things maybe worse than expected! heads up. we could use another update pls!!!

Anonymous said...

I just looked this up at NOAA Indianapolis Weather for Tippecanoe County

Tonight: Freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet before midnight, then freezing rain between midnight and 3am, then rain or freezing rain after 3am. Patchy fog after midnight. Temperature rising to around 31 by 5am. East southeast wind between 8 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.3 of an inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday: Rain or freezing rain likely before 10am, then rain likely between 10am and 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. North northwest wind between 10 and 13 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Anonymous said...

Well, I am searching for a radar on this site. The last update was 21:02 which is 9:02 am I correct or am I off? And the radar loop is not working. Sheesh, LOL....settle down, MA! Any help or suggestion is appreciated. Justin, Teri, what radar site(s) are you watching?

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

Mary go to storm tracks it shows doppler there also

Anonymous said...

Hey Aaron! Nice site! AS if I need another blog to hang out on, LOL..Teri, Justin check it out1

MA IN Rem

Anonymous said...

NWS is off on timing, from all wx sites for Laf, Tipp Co

Anonymous said...

I did check it out Mary anne! Cool site!

Mary Anne you can go to Intellicast.com and use there radars or Accu.com I use Storm Predator Some don't like it but I have had no problems!! I guess it just is all in what you like!

Justin in Lafayette

Anonymous said...

Mike,
Is Attica in the same path of ice accumulation as Warren and Tippecanoe County.

Richard

Anonymous said...

Everything is still looking on track! Ice is still expected to be between a Tenth and a Quarter inch! Also expected to start in Tippecanoe County closer to 11:pm and rain by 3:am or 4:am!

New rainfall between and Inch and an inch and a Quarter!

I do see the Freezing rain starting to move in or my radar! It is starting to enter Fountain County! Moving East north East!

Justin in Lafayette

Anonymous said...

Thanks, going there now. I only have maybe five other radars up, LOL. I wanted one right here in our area.

MA

Anonymous said...

Hi all, Teri here, I am having the same problem as MA the radars are not working and not updated, AccuWX is the only one that I have been on that is updated.

I will check out the others suggested....thanks all, I am listing to my wx radio.......nothing has changed, now off to check out new sites....

Teri

Anonymous said...

I have two children in TSC and am worried that they have not called a delay as of yet. It is very frustrating because we were told that if they have a delay they will not be released until 3:30 instead of 1:30 if there is a two hour deal. Makes it very hard for parents to plan daycare, etc. when they don't call them until 6:30-7:00am.

Anonymous said...

I wish there was another update. I am very worried about how the roads are going to be for my drive to work in the morning!

Anonymous said...

doing nothing here west of otterbein

Anonymous said...

Raining in Attica Now!!!!! 10:00 p.m

Anonymous said...

Raining in Attica Now!!!!! 10:00 p.m

Anonymous said...

Teri Mary Anne is Intellicast Radars working ok for you? That is what I always used before!

Justin

Anonymous said...

Sorry to double post

Anonymous said...

Its here! in Tipp Co. little drizzle now, hang on all. Please dont let us lost power, Was just watching wx channel, not looking good for any of our vewing area, signif ice for all

Anonymous said...

If I was a parent of small children I would make the call myself to keep them out of harm's way in the morning. Early morning is gong to be very scary unless forecasts change. Right now from all wx statements it it not going to be above freezing by time for school. What say you, Teri?

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

Hey Attica, how heavy is the rain? Radar shows heavy precip...just wondering.

Anonymous said...

New post from Mike

Anonymous said...

kids are going to have school tomorrow. deal with it!

Anonymous said...

Justin, is Storm Predator a software or on a site you use?

MA

Anonymous said...

pretty steady....nothing freezing yet!!! But it is still in the high 20`s

Anonymous said...

I was actually considering keeping them home-we live outside West Lafayette by Burnett Creek Elementary(where my children attend) and Harrison High school and the roads are horrible here after any snow or ice. My children ride the bus but I just don't feel comfortable putting their safety in the hands of a vehicle with no seat beats-at worst I will take them myself if they do not have a delay-at least then we are just going down the road and they will be safely in their car seats!

Anonymous said...

Not a down pour but it is staying steady here in Attica.

Anonymous said...

keep them home its their own ignorence if it is bad and they dont cancel.

Anonymous said...

I agree. The good news is Tippecanoe School Corporation has been very good the two years my children have been attending Burnett Creek about calling delays. There have been some instances that they have called them and then nothing happens-but at least they have been willing to be better safe then sorry! My nephews attend LSC and has been very frustrated with them this year.

Anonymous said...

I must admit, reading the blog is more exciting than watching the Colts tonight !!

Anonymous said...

I agree I am always on here but never leave anything!!! It's been very fun tonight..not that it's not on any other night I'm sure...This storm is making me wired!!

Anonymous said...

I know the Colts game is just depressing me. There have been so many mistakes and bad calls on the Colts part it makes me wonder how badly they want to go to the Playoffs!

Anonymous said...

Whats the score

Anonymous said...

I swear I see some light snow coming down in western Benton County, but I can still see lights toward Milford IL, maybe I just need to wash my windows.

Anonymous said...

right now the score is 24-24 with 6:25 to go in the 4th qtr. jacksonville has the ball.

Shawna
West Lafayette

Anonymous said...

just put a coat on and let us know

Anonymous said...

Maybe manning will pull it off...I sure hope so... I don`t think they are superbowl capable this yr

Anonymous said...

Correction-Radcliff just intercepted Gerrard and ran it back for a touchdown! Colts up 31-24 with 4:30 minutes to go!

Go Colts!

Shawna
West Lafayette

Anonymous said...

Yup, it is a real light snow. And the Colts take the lead with an interception run in for a TD






Cobby

Anonymous said...

GO COLTS!!!

Anonymous said...

Light drizzle here in Attica.... Nothing freezing too the vehicle yet.

pam said...

Nothing yet in Monticello...a little colder but no precip of any kind! YET :)

Anonymous said...

Colts sneak this one out, going to the playoffs, and I am going to the newer blog !