4:25 p.m. Thursday: Ice Storm Update
Expected ice amounts look similar....the only change will be to delay the onset of the freezing rain until mainly after 10 p.m. As a result freezing rain will not switch over to rain until closer to 4 a.m. in Tippecanoe County and 6 a.m. farther north. Areas north of Remington, Monticello, and Logansport are in line for .25" to .50" of ice with locally higher amounts in farther northern Newton, Jasper, Pulaski, and Fulton Counties in the .50" to 1" range if they do in fact get thunder freezing rain. A difference of a couple degrees can make a huge difference in amounts. Stay tuned and I will post the latest maps on here ASAP.
10:59 a.m. Thursday: Ice Storm Update
Yes, I did get some rest last night and I have been awaiting anxiously for the 12 zulu NAM model to come in. I did have a good time blogging and talking to everybody last night. Thanks! Everything does look on track and I do not see any surprises on ice amounts. Early this morning I did raise the possibility that the ice would be delayed. This has been verified this morning. In this case I think it is good news because it will give our tempeatures a few extra hours to rise before the ice arrives and once we get into the heavier rain I expect our 5,000 foot tempearatures to be in the middle 40s. This should mix down to the surface and help warm us above freezing without a problem after midnight thanks to that strong surge of warm air aloft coinciding with the heavier precipitation which will help drag it down to the surface. Here are the latest numbers:
Freezing Rain begins between 7:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m.
A change-over to rain between 1 a.m. and 3 a.m.
Thunderstorms possible between 3 a.m. and 7 a.m.
Crawfordsville ice .10"
Frankfort ice .15"
West Lebanon ice .15"
Lafayette ice: .20/rainfall close to one inch
Kokomo ice: .20"
Fowler ice: .25"
Monticello ice: .25"
Logansport ice: .25"
Remington ice: .30"
Monon ice: .30"
Peru ice: .30"
Medaryville ice: .40"
Winamac ice: .40"
Rochester ice: .40"
The good news is that we should all stay under the critical .50" of ice. Once you get up to that .50" threshold much bigger problems crop up quickly. There will still be some sporadic power outages, small tree limbs down, and travel will not be recommended by later this evening so get all those errands done today. In fact, I am going to go take care of some right now. Be safe. I still like 6 to 10 inches of snow for Chicago. Oh yes! My family in southern Wisconsin could see 12" to 16" of snow!! I will check back with you late this afternoon before the news with more!