Just checking in before the late show. I have been able to digest more model data and one thing that stuck out was more of a backlash snow once this system moves by. We showed this during the early shows and I said do not give up hope if you are wishing for a White Christmas. Then I came to this blog and was glad Justin and Teri were keeping your spirts high with some great stories no matter what nature decides to do. I wish I had a crystal ball but the fact of the matter is that I do not and their are plenty of gray areas in the field of meteorology when it comes to forecasting.
One good trend I have seen tonight is that I do think our freezing rain duration will only be from 2 to 4 hours and we should all have electricity for Christmas. That is great news in itself....White Christmas or no White Christmas. This pattern that came in during December was supposed to lock in with a negative NAO, but those warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that brought an active hurricane season may have had the final say on keeping our pattern more progressive so far this month. This means while we have had very impressive cold shots there really has been nothing to lock that polar air in place and thus we have had warm air intrusions from the south and southwest aloft holding our snowfall totals down from what could have been record-setting numbers.
Farther north where the cold air has sat nicely in place with a thick snow pack there have been no worries. My aunt in Oshkosh, Wisconsin called in a snowcover close to 30 inches with more on thew way! Hopefully you are going snowmobiling for Christmas. It looks terrific up north! But just maybe we can still eek out a White Christmas here at home and I am hoping the model that showed a nice burst of snow to at least give us a light coating of snow on Christmas Eve is right! I will check back in with you before hitting the hay later tonight! Thanks for watching and blogging!