Thursday, November 1, 2007

A Sugar-Coated Start to November May Turn Bittersweet Next Week

I am still working off sugar at this late hour. The Prangley daughters you see above had a happy Halloween. Megan, the Miss America you see above loves working with numbers like her Dad. So she counted all the candy the sisters gathered last night and it came out to a whopping 230 pieces. The good news is Dad counted the raindrops last night or should I say sprinkles or spits of rain. There were only 3 rain drops which quickly evaporated upon contact. So it was a great evening for everybody in our family. I enjoyed being able to walk with my wife who actually carried our 7 pound dog ( a Cotton) around the block. The funny part is that somebody thought our dog was a costume. So I played along and told them our baby was dressed up as a dog. I saw lots of great costumes, but was worried about a penguin I saw. Even though penguins are not able to fly we had some howling winds that almost blew this penguin away that you see below.

The good news is this penguin did not need to be rescued despite a 31 mph wind gust measured last night in Lafayette! Today as high pressure build in it will be a glorious start to November with seasonable temperatures in the middle to upper 50s and much lighter breezes. Folks were amazed when I told them the reason we were so windy was a big snowstorm that was really winding up in Ontario and Manitoba causing a tight pressure gradient in our area. This snowpack being put down to our north will have a big impact on our weather next week along with a huge arctic air mass building to our north. Take a look at temperatures early this morning.

Temperatures near zero to our north could spell doom for those that do not like cold weather. This heavy, arctic air mass will likely have no place to go but south with a series of cold fronts helping to drag it our way. The strongest cold front of the season should arrive by Tuesday of next week with maybe our first flurries of the season on Wednesday. Talk about our treat of a weather pattern turning into nature's trick, there you have it! I of course am excited about this, especially after looking at some of the latest winter maps. We may have a tough time seeing much in the way of snow or real cold weather, but I need to emphasize that it is still early and these long-range forecasts can change.

On Tuesday, the National Weather Service in Indianapolis held their Winter Weather Awareness Workshop and they were in agreement with the latest Climate Prediction Center maps for winter. Here they are below.

Now this does confirm my warmer and stormier winter than normal I am expecting. Now it is all about timing. I am working on a winter weather outlook that will run on November 13th and 14th on our newscasts and what is interesting is that we will have a decent shot at some snow for the holidays, but unusually warm weather during the usually coldest time of the year for us. Spring will then roll around and winter will make a comeback. I am still putting the finishing touches on this forecast and will have little tidbits leading up to the winter outlook stories I am working on.

Here is winter tidbit number one: If you are dreaming of a White Christmas, your wish may very well come true. But do not oversleep or you may miss out on a winter wonderland.

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