Lafayette Winter Forecast Not Looking "Catastrophic"

Well, I worked on the winter forecast once again since I have been getting swamped with e-mails on why the two big almanacs that come out this time of year are calling for snowy and cold weather for much of the country. I can tell you that I do not see a historic winter setting up and nobody loves winter weather more than I do. The big thing I do see in the long-range maps is uncertainty on how strong the El Nino will be and if it develops. This will be huge in determining how much snow and cold air we receive. I do see water temperatures starting to rebound quickly out in the equatorial Pacific and this indicates my original forecast of a cold November and December with snowy weather giving way to an early Spring and warm new year still holds. I will explain more here in a bit and why this dry pattern we have having may be here to stay.