Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Toughest Forecast of the Year Should Yield Some Rain this Week

Happy Birthday to Megan our oldest daughter who is 11 years old today. She has come a long way from Myrtle Beach and every year just keeps getting better!!

The question is not if but how much rain and when over the next 7 days. If you have been wondering where I have been....well we had Lauren's first day of pre-school on Monday and a parent-teacher orientation on Monday night between shows. When I have not been tending to the kids I have been calling Florida to check in with friends and relatives. The good news for Florida is that Fay will spare the peninsula the worst of the winds. The biggest concern will be flooding with some areas easily surpassing 10 inches of rain. I cannot rule out localized about of 20 inches which would be about 8 months worth of rain here in Indiana. Also, isolated tornadoes would be the next main threat. It is not out of the question that Fay could go back out over the Atlantic and make a second landfall in Georgia. It may have stronger winds with the second landfall as a result. Stay tuned! Here are a few reasons why. Take a look at how drastically the model tracks have changed since Friday above. It looked like an Atlantic hurricane, then a Gulf Hurricane, then both, then a Gulf hurricane and it may end up as a mix of a Gulf and Atlantic hurricane. If you think daily forecasting is tough enough here in the Midwest just try adding tropical forecasting to the mix. These track changes are unbelieveable and the big thing is that what happens with Fay will certainly impact us with either a lot of rain or very little rain. Right now I am in the middle and should have more answers during the day today so check back. Today we could see at least an isolated shower or storm from Monticello northward due to a weak backdoor front coming through. This will only reach about 20% of us. The best chance of rain for us will be late week as what is left with Fay moves our way. Notice the cone of concern below. Notice it is expected to slowly drift northward by late week bringing us better chances of rain. Have a great day!


Anonymous said...

thank goodness for power lol..our power was out here in Lafayette for almost and hour and it was pitch black in here...anyways I really hope that on sat atlanta will be ok..what do u think like for the airports and for here??
Renee in Lafayette

Anonymous said...

Yes Mike this hurricane has been wild!

It's like at one point you can tell were it wants to go or at least think you have an idea and then like a day later you look at the models and BOOM they have changed. I was looking at some models last night and they look just like what you have up there!
CRAZY!!!!! Well at least this gives us all something to do.

Happy 11th birthday to Megan.

All have a great day. :)

Justin in Lafayette.