Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Fay Likely to Strike Georgia-Florida Border Late Week Delaying our Rain

Here is a note I just sent to my parents down in Jacksonville, Florida. Of course my thoughts and prayers are with everybody down in Florida and Georgia. Notice the NHC track as of Tuesday at 5 p.m. has a category one hurricane going through the heart of Jacksonville on Thursday. Luckily we are still two days out and I expect this track to change once again to much less populated areas to the north and of course away from my friends and family.

THE MODEL OF CHOICE:GFDL MODEL (WILL POST NHC TRACK HERE BY 5 P.M.)


PROBLEM: FAY IS NOW BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER LAND WHICH I HAVE NEVER SEEN HAPPEN BEFORE...UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING OVER IT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW NOW SHOWING UP ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FAY TO BECOME MUCH STRONGER ONCE IT RE-EMERGES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SINCE FAY IS MOVING OVER SWAMPLAND OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IT SHOULD STILL HOLD TOGETHER QUITE WELL....YOU CAN NOW EVEN SEE AN EYE FOR THE FIRST TIME WITH WIND GUSTS OF 78 MPH BEING REPORTED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FAY IS TRYING TO MAKE A MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA'S BIGGEST LAKE AND WITH PRESSURES FALLING AND I DO NOT EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH MUCH AT ALL.


STRENGTH & TRACK FORECAST: ONCE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AN EXPLOSION TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE IS LIKELY....( WIND SPEEDS WILL GO UP TO NEAR 100 MPH SUSTAINED WITH A LANDFALL BETWEEN MAYPORT, FLORIDA AND BRUNSWICK, GEORGIA...WIND SPEEDS IN MANDARIN, FLORIDA FARTHER INLAND WILL BE FROM 40 TO 50 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 75.....GUSTS AT THE BEACHES (PONTE VEDRA, JACKSONVILLE BEACH, ATLANTIC BEACH COULD REACH NEAR 90 MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH....FARTHER UP THE COAST CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER WILL BE THE BULLSEYE...WIND SPEEDS SUSTAINED OF 80 to 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110 MPH....BIGGEST STORM SINCE DORA TO IMPACT NORTHEAST FLORIDA....1964....ALTHOUGH THAT STORM MADE LANDFALL NEAR ST.AUGUSTINE WITH FLOODING AS THE MAIN PROBLEM. FAY WILL BRING NOT ONLY SOME FLOODING CONCERNS BUT PACK A PUNCH WITH PLENTY OF WIND.

What this means for us here in Indiana.....this big tropical system that is getting stronger will mean more sinking air around its periphery causing our high pressure here at home to be much stronger than what we are used to this time of year. I will check the record books for record lows as I cannot rule out some upper 40s in this type of set-up. Remember everything in the weather world is related and it takes something big for this to happen and Fay certainly fits that bill. Not only will we have a monster high pressure that is stronger, but it will be slower to move out. This will delay our rain chances likely until late Saturday or Sunday.

Next week here in Indiana we could see another strange week with another hurricane approaching the southeast coast. This hurricane may be even stronger and all interests from Florida to the Carolinas need to take note.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thank you for the updates Mike. You make it easy to understand the hurricane situation in Florida. I have relatives there also.

Here in Lafayette my lawn is all dried up, but the weeds continue to grow!

ML

Anonymous said...

Can you tell me if atlanta GA will be ok on sat or will there be bad storms that could delay planes?

Brow said...

That is so crazy on how its hooking back around like that. I hope everyone stays safe in FL!