Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Hottest Weather in Months to the Wettest in Weeks

It actually felt hot in the sunshine today, so Lauren found a cool spot in the shade in a little play ground house. She made sure her bear stayed nice and cool as well. Temperatures on the southside of Lafayette reached 83 degrees and that of course was measured in the shade. The temperature today in the sunshine easily reached close to 100 degrees. Our dog's tongue was almost hanging to the ground, so we made sure he had plenty of water. This was the hottest weather in over 6 months! Take a look at these highs. It was fitting that these are the average temperatures for Flag Day here in Lafayette which of course is on June 14th. It was an election day to remember for record voter turnout and highs not far from our record high of 88 here in Lafayette set back in 1959.

Now do not get used to the summer breeze. It may make you feel fine but nature has other plans. A turn to a cooler and wetter pattern is on the way and once it sets in it may be here to stay through at least May 24th. Now we are not going into that infamous pattern we saw over the winter when we were lambasted with one storm after another, but we will have to watch out for possible flooding once again as some models have the Lafayette area in line for 1 to 3 inches of rain by late this week and at least a couple more inches of rain by late May. The blocking high pressure to our south that has brought a drier than average pattern since late March is now gone. This will allow plentiful moisture to move our way from the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time high latitude blocking will suppress the polar and subtropical jet streams into the Midwest. This will add more lift to the atmosphere and at the same time cool us down in a hurry. Check it out below.

The good news is our ground has dried out thanks to it being so dry over the past 5 weeks, so this should help our rivers. Our weather team will keep watching it closely for you. If there is flooding on the rivers it looks like we should be okay with just minor flooding this week. But things could become more serious next week and the following week depending on exactly where those frontal boundaries set up in this unsettled pattern. This time of year we can go from some areas having 6 inches of rain to less than a half-inch of rain in a hurry. Having Precision and Live Doppler 18 should help us immensely. If there is a silver lining in the clouds with this new pattern it is our tornado chances should remain lower than average for this time of year in this current set-up. But watch out as we start to heat up by late May and early June. I will check back with you here on the blog with more on your summer forecast. It has taken much longer than expected due to a dying La Nina. I will post more on this here tomorrow. In the meantime, I will catch you on the tube!


Brow said...

Tornado chances should remain lower than average for this time of year...I like the sound of that!

Anonymous said...

As always - when you start talking about flooding possibilities - I cringe and think not again. The Wabash is in between 3 and 4 feet -which is actually pretty low.

I am hoping that the rain is not as heavy as predicted, for this week or next week. I checked the hydrology graph - and so far they are not showing any flood warnings - I know that is subject to change, depending on where the wet weather tracks.

Thank you for the interesting blogs and weather reports. I hope that they dry conditions will make the ground a good sponge to soak up that rain.