Dry Air Will Keep Lafayette Snow Amounts on the Lighter Side

I know you may be surprised you have not heard from me all weekend and most of today, but this is because I have been very skeptical of this approaching snow-maker. You just have to look at the dewpoint here in the middle afternoon and that should put up some warning flags for all snow-lovers. Right now the dewpoint is 5 below zero. The air is desert dry! You couple this with a weak system moving our way and you can go from some areas of Indiana having 5 inches of snow to just an inch in quite a hurry. There will likely be a sharp cut-off in snow amounts. If you live in Crawfordsville, FRANKFORT..yes you Randy and Chris, and Kokomo you have the better chance of seeing more significant snow out of this system.

I just drew in some snow contours across our area and I will need to wait to take a look at the WLFI and new Precision model we have at TV-18 before making my final call. I will check back with you shortly.

Could there be school delays tomorrow? Yes. How about closings? Probably not. Here are a couple more stats for you while you wait...

Chance of light snow for Lafayette at 3 a.m 66%
Chance of moderate to heavy snow in Lafayette at 3 a.m. 0.8%

Chance of light snow for Lafayette at 6 a.m. 82%
Chance of moderate to heavy snow in Lafayette at 6 a.m. 29%

Highest Snow Amount Possible In Lafayette: 5.8"
Lowest Snow Amount Possible in Lafayette : 1.2"
Average Forecast Amount of Snow for Lafayette in Models Looked at So Far: 3.6"
General Trend in Models: Steady
Confidence in Models: Fair

Developing...

Good Car Washing Weather & Spring Only 6 Weeks Away!

We have had such lousy weather I had to find a bright picture for you. Here are the redbuds in bloom at Happy Hollow Park last Spring. It was even a nice sunny day! When is the last time we had sunshine? Let's not go there. The cloud season here in Lafayette is just about over. It settles in from the middle of November through the middle of February and combine this with the shorter days and it can make it tough on many of us. But enough of those negative thoughts. In Florida, they actually have pollen counts already and folks are having to wash all that pollen off their cars. Speaking of car washes, I do owe our anchor Gina Quattrocchi a car wash since we did not have any significant sunshine yesterday. I tried to be an optimist and even though I knew it would be a tough bet, I went ahead and took it. In this pattern, I certainly lost that battle. She won our bet thanks to all our low-level moisture trapped beneath a temperature inversion. I will definitely get some pictures for you.

Today here at home you can also get out and wash your car and even though it will not be Florida warm nor sunny, we can take solace in the fact that Spring arrives on March 20th. Our solar winter officially ended on February 3rd which is known as the darkest time of year. Meteorological Spring begins in just over 3 weeks on March 1st. See now those clouds outside do not looks so bad!

But wait! We all know what happens after you wash your car in Indiana. Maybe we shouldn't do it but in this case do not blame yourselves but La Nina! Those chilly ocean temperatures in the Pacific are actually even cooler based on the latest numbers which means the wild ride for us has just begun. It is causing a 140 mph jet stream to slice right through the Midwest. Nature's main highway is as busy as ever and our traffic jam of storms and weird weather continues. This gridlock in the atmosphere may not start changing until March. If it does not we are in for one awful severe weather season. But in this pattern, take it one day at a time. We have an arctic outbreak Saturday night and Sunday and some maps are even hinting at a possible snow event early next week. I will post more on this and have more on the news tonight. Have a great day and remember the redbuds!

Nature Goes for the Cycle! Now Brace for an Arctic Outbreak

Hey Mike and crew, this is storm chaser Eric Graham. Thought I send you guys in a pic of the Pedestrian Bridge and the Wabash River. Its been a while since I've seen the Wabash and the Wildcat Creek this high. Its pretty amazing stuff. I'll send in some more pics whenI get a chance.
Stay warm guys! It's a cold one out there!

Sincerely,

Eric Graham

I took this picture this morning just north of Greencastle on US 231 this morning. Straight line winds riped the roof off of this barn. The debris was blown over about a 1/4 mile to the east.

Chris Huang

Hi Mike,

When people complain about cold weather here, talk about -20 wind-chill and the like, my friends up in Alaska just laugh. One of them sent me this little AP story and I thought I would share.

- Monty -

FAIRBANKS - Even for Alaska's Interior, this is cold. The National Weather Service reports the coldest spot in the state Wednesday morning was minus 67 at O'Brien Creek, a spot on the Taylor Highway nearly 200 miles east of Fairbanks.There was also an unofficial reading of minus 70 in Tok, but residents were treating it as just another winter day."We're generally close to this temperature at this time of the year," said Sgt. Freddie Wells of the Alaska State Troopers post in Tok.But troopers are placing a priority on responding to calls from stranded motorists, and there is heightened concern for the community's older residents.Otherwise, Wells says, it seems people are staying inside more.Readings of minus 50 to minus 60 were common throughout the Interior overnight, including minus 65 at Chicken, a tiny community on the Taylor Highway east of Fairbanks.Chicken also holds the distinction of having the last official temperature in the state of minus 70 or colder - 72 below on Jan. 1, 2000.The state's second-largest city also wasn't immune from the cold. The noontime high Wednesday in Fairbanks was minus 45.There doesn't appear to be any warming in immediate sight; the Weather Service says the extreme cold should stick around until early next week.---Information from Fairbanks Daily News-Miner,
www.newsminer.com

Thanks for all the great pictures and articles. The straight-line damage you see above had wind speeds estimated at 85 mph last night. There was also a confirmed EF-1 tornado with 100 mph winds confirmed in Greene County on Tuesday night. Today I checked in on my relatives in Wisconsin where on the cold side of the storm Oconomowoc had 16 inches of snow and blizzard conditions. What a historic week it has been and we are not done yet so keep those pictures and weather stories coming! Remember I am just the messenger and I know everybody's been on edge with this rotten weather. Even I am ready for just some good old-fashioned sunshine for a couple weeks.

We woke up to icy roads this morning. So let me get this straight....so far this week in our viewing area we have had thundersnow, thundersleet, freezing rain, hail, thunderstorm warnings, wind gusts near 50 mph, record flooding, a record high of 61, near record flooding once again on the Tippecanoe, major flooding on the Wabash, and the WORST FOG some folks have ever seen in our area. Some areas had 8 inches of snow that vanished within 5 days! We need some good news! I found some in the form of sunshine today. Do you remember that bright object in the sky? :)

But that weird weather pattern in place since the start of the new year will likely re-emerge by this weekend. That is why I shared Monty's good find for you. A chunk of that Arctic Air is coming our way. So nature is going for the cycle. I am using this in baseball terms when a player gets a single, double, triple, and home run. What nature has done this week is like hitting for two cycles in one game with an extra home run thrown in there. The only thing we will not see this week will be hot weather, otherwise we have had all the seasons in one week. I will have more on how low it will go this weekend and why it will be good weather if you are a polar bear. See you soon and get those layers ready. We will talk more about when this pattern could break for good here on the blog tomorrow.

Torrential Rain & A Tornado Rips Indiana

Germantown, Tennesee Tornado

on Tuesday

The Tippecanoe River is running about 5 feet lower than January 8th. This will not be a repeat or 100 year flood like we saw a few weeks ago, but significant flooding is taking place. Here are some of your latest weather notes. They seem like they are out of a movie instead of real life. Our weather has been out of control for quite some time. You can see the heavy rain as it moved in last night with plenty of thunder. We had a quick one to two inches of rain in about a four hour time frame. If it had been snow we would have had more than the Blizzard of 2007 or close to two feet! This follows us melting down a snowpack with about a half-inch to one inch of liquid. It is a really bad combination.

White County Emergency Management: No new evacuations at this time but monitoring the situation. Their advice is to watch the water and if you feel unsafe be ready to move to higher ground. The Norway and Oakdale Dams could both rise above the critical levels of 22,000 cubic feet per second and will peak out today and start to improve by tonight.

Tippecanoe County Emergency Management: Flooding reported on county roads and make sure to avoid low-lying areas and do not cross roadways covered by water. Worst of the flooding on the Wabash River at Lafayette will be late Thursday with our highest forecast crest since January 2005…it will crest at 22.4 feet or 11.4 feet above flood stage. This number could still change based on how much rain we received last night.

Rainfall Amounts as of 1 a.m. Wednesday

Tipton 3.70”

WLFI 2.66"

Monticello 2.47"

Monon 2.35"

Williamsport 2.35"

Earl Park 2.16"

Remington 2.05

Kokomo 1.94”

Kentland 1.92”

At least 18 killed in tornadoes Tuesday afternoon and night.….7 in Arkansas, 8 in Tennessee, 3 in Kentucky….more are missing. You can see one of at least 6 tornadoes that tore across Tennessee last night above. Tornadoes are more common along the Gulf Coast this time of year, but not as far north as Tennessee and Indiana! There were 53 reports of tornadoes, and over 200 reports of hail and wind damage.

Here in Indiana: A possible tornado hit 10 miles south of Montgomery County last night in Bainbridge. We picked the rotation up on Live Doppler 18 and luckily it weakened as it moved into Clinton County. There were reports of trees down and damage to barns and mobile homes. There was also an 82 mile per hour wind gusts near Terre Haute brought down numerous trees and powerlines.

More extreme weather is on the way and this time in the form of brutally cold weather. More details on the way here on the blog and tonight at 5,6, and 11. See you soon!

Storm Track is Changing, Flooding is Looking Worse Rather Than Better

Latest model runs are not changing for the better. The storm track like we have seen all winter long is looking much farther north and west so instead of most of our rain ending toward midnight we could have an extending batch of heavy rain for much of the night. We will also have a chance of some strong storms with damaging gusty winds. Please tune in for the latest.

We have done several cut-ins and as of 9:55 p.m. many areas have had between 2 and 3 inches of rain. We may have one more inch of rain on the way before things settle down. Flooding will be significant on the Tippecanoe and Wabash Rivers. The Wabash River will likely have one of its highest crests on record. The Tippecanoe River will have to be monitored carefully and even if it does not reach the levels of 3 weeks ago, residents need to be ready to move if needed in the overnight hours.

Flooding on the Wabash & Evacuations on Evacuations on the Tippecanoe River

Evacuations are taking place right now on the Tippecanoe River. Evacuations in White County are taking place at Diamond Point, Buffalo, Bluewater, and Monon. I spoke to residents in Monticello and Carroll County and it is not rising as fast and furious as it did just over 3 weeks ago. But the water is high enough that south of the Oakdale Dam in Carroll County, evacuations are taking place between 1200/1225 West and south of County Road 725.

I just got off the phone with Gordy Cochran of Emergency Management and the good news is that the levels downstream of the Oakdale and Norway Dam will not be close to the 100 year flood we saw on January 8th. The bad news is there will still be some significant flooding on the Tippecanoe River. Both dams peaked out between 32,000 and 36,000 cfs on January 8th and based on our WLFI weather forecast we are expecting the levels to peak closer to the 22,000 to 25,000 cfs level. This is all based on how much rain we have tonight. The break in the rain for most of today is critical and it will allow the dam levels to steady off and stay just below the warning criteria of 22,000 cfs.

Tonight based on our special local in-house model there will be another .50 to about 1" of rain in Monticello. This could still change so we will have to watch it. We have a very volatile weather situation. Temperatures have fallen to 36.9 degrees at noon in Monticello and this means the main front or focus of heavier rainfall will likely stay farther south. You can see that in the graphic above with area from Terre Haute to Muncie in the 1 to 3" range. I would not be surprised of 5 or 6 inch rain amounts coming in just south of Indianapolis. If we can keep our local rainfall in the lighter range it looks like most residents along the Tippecanoe River will dodge the worst this time around. Stay tuned and we will keep you posted as this will be an ever-changing situation. It is a good thing we have Live Doppler 18. Remember flood forecasts can change in a hurry and we need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.


Paul Hadfield south of Decatur, IL last night

The update on the Wabash River is not very good. I spoke to the state climatologist Al Shipe and we have the potential for our highest crest since January of 2005. At one point our WLFI lightning tracker picked up 7,000 cloud to ground lightning strikes per hour between western Illinois and Indiana. Paul went out and captured some more rare mid-winter thunderstorms. The thunderstorms last night were just too much for our saturated ground to handle. Now tonight, we could have a few more pockets of heavy rain and possible thunder. Hopefully we can keep most of those storms south of us because the Wabash River flooding all depends on how much rain we receive tonight. The Weather Service plugged us in for one more inch of rain tonight. This would give us a crest close to 22.4 feet on Thursday afternoon. This would be high enough to once again shut down state road 43. If we get less rain tonight the total would be adjusted downward, but unfortunately I think the front will be close enough to us for at least an inch to maybe 1.5" of rain tonight. You can see we are sitting in a bad area or right along the big temperature contrast from Tippecanoe to Marion County. Our Precisoncast temperatures tell the gloomy story.



Our thoughts and prayers go out to the six folks that lost their lives across central and northern Indiana yesterday in some of the worst fog Lafayette has ever seen. Folks got lost in grocery store parking lots it was so bad. The wolves were even tough to find out at Wolf Park.


Monty Sloan's View from Wolf Park

Visibilities actually reached zero in some areas due to all the melting snow, heavy rain, and a tremendous surge warm air that overtook the area. We actually hit 61 degrees late last night before the storms came in. The wild swing in temperatures and stormy weather finally caught up to us. Our weather has been nature's melting pot to say the least. Please stay safe and slow down when traveling tonight and tomorrow. We will have more patchy fog and remember it is hard to see flooded out roadways in the dark. Slippery roads could return on Wedesday with flurries and temperatures falling below freezing. We need to stay patient, please be careful. This historic pattern for wild weather is not showing any signs of letting up any time soon. God bless.

Thunder Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain, & Dense Fog A Sign of Things to Come

Nature Throws Lafayette in the Soup

Just when you thought you have seen it all, nature comes up with even more tricks up its sleeve. This morning's school delays were caused by near 0 visibility in much of the area. This came on the heels of thunder and lightning reported with heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain late last night across portions of White and Jasper Counties. We had a vigorous upper-level disturbance and a ton of mild air collide with our much colder lower-levels. This huge temperature contrast brought steep lapse rates and rapidly rising air bringing thunder to the area. Some sleet and snow accumulations were close to an inch to the north of Tippecanoe County before the change-over to all rain. This is a sign of things to come across the area this week. Make sure to tune in tonight for the latest on why strong thunderstorms are back in the forecast and who could be up near 60 degrees on Tuesday before colder air and chances of snow move back in. We will have to keep an eye on flooding once again with rain amounts likely exceeding one inch.

Speaking of big flips....on a more positive note, this weekend was absolutely terrific. I went on the road with my family to Greenwood to cheer on the Lafayette Area Gymnastics Club and they did a terrific job as usual. There were also some other very impressive teams from around the state including the Kokomo Flipsters. If you have never been to a gymnastics meet you are really missing a lot.

WLFI Bowling for Junior Achievement

It was also a big bowling weekend. Our WLFI team was one of several teams that helped raise close to 20,000 dollars for Junior Achievement. Jan Koehler did a great job organizing this event. Now for the scores...Michelle and her husband David Kidder led the way. David had a 276 and Michelle with a 209. Sue Scott had a strong finish with a 174, while Kelly Crull of Sports Team 18 had a nice 194! I had some issues but the good news is I got some much needed help from Megan, Kirsten, and Abbey you see pictured below. They really need to form a bowling team at Mayflower Mill.

It was also a Groundhog Day to remember and the card my wife got me was absolutely perfect....it actually sings the tune, " I got you Babe" when you open it. As far as the restaurant goes for our big date....well the gymnastics meet ran over 5 hours! So we went to plan B and took the girls out to Denny's. We did not really get to eat anything until past midnight. At least we had great company and that is all that really matters. I told her I will take her to a nice place when things settle down...which at this rate may be years! :)

Have a great day and I will see you soon.