Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Freak February Storm Pounds Lafayette


In just one storm we will likely see an entire month worth of precipitation. February is climatologically our driest month averaging 1.57" of precipitation. Latest model runs have our storm tracking a little farther north and west which means most of us could push two inches of rain. You see the latest track which would mean a higher risk of more significant flooding across the area. As long as we keep amounts closer to the two inch range this will still keep the major flooding away. But if we start pushing three inches all b
ets are off. I still do not see this happening but we will need to monitor this very carefully, especially with the wobble a little farther north and west.


We are still in a slight risk for severe weather today and the big question is where will the big squall line of thunderstorms initiate. I think the drenching rain over the Lafayette area this morning will actually help stabilize things enough that the worst of the thunderstorms stay well south of our area. If you are traveling south to Indianapolis and Cincinnati make sure you have a plan B. The farther south you travel the better your chance of running into severe weather. But do not let your guard down. We are not even close to being out of the woods from this storm here at home. This storm nicknamed "the Freak" will act more like an inland hurricane for us today as wind gusts outside of thunderstorms easily be up near 60 mph. At just 5,000 feet above the ground wind gusts will be hurricane force at an amazing 75 mph to 85 mph. This will be mixed down to the surface as "the Freak" charges our way. It has already caused plenty of damage from tornadoes in Oklahoma and will be tracking close to our area by early afternoon. Once it moves by the area by late afternoon make sure you secure all loose objects as they will become like flying missiles, especially between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. While I do think we will dodge the tornadoes we will not miss out on damaging wind gusts.

Morning wind gusts should hold in the 30 mph range with those scattered thunderstorms, but notice they increase up to over 50 mph in the afternoon with the worst of the wind between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. with gusts of 60 to 65 mph. This extended period of time with high wind gusts is bad news for us. Usually when storms move through they are here and gone in less than 30 minutes, but damaging wind gusts will be possible for a good 6 to 8 hours today and early this evening. It will be like a never-ending thunderstorm with straight-line winds that just will not go away and this set-up could cause some significant damage around the area to not only trees but powerlines, rooftops, and shingles. A high wind warning will continue until 1 a.m. on Thursday and things likely will not get better until late tonight. We are used to storms here in Indiana but not wind storms like we are about to experience.

Stay with our weather team for all the latest on the heavy rain, flooding, thunderstorms, and wind. Bloggers this is your chance to step up again with pictures, weather conditions, road conditions, rainfall amounts, wind gusts, and any damage reports. The more eyes and ears out there the safer we will all be. I will be in touch with the National Weather Service and Emergency Management and together we can all make a difference helping to keep as many people safe as we can. This is what it is all about. Be safe and batten down the hatches! This storm will be one to remember. It is great hearing from folks all over the country. We are interested in your stories because we are all connected. I will make sure to share more national stories here on the blog and of course relate it to Indiana which is easy to do since we are the Crossroads of America. Some think we got that name from all the major interstates that run through here, but in my book it is from all the weather that runs through this state. Every day is like the Super Bowl when you are a meteorologist in Indiana. Let the game begin. Our team is ready!


64 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mike this really is a wild system and the freak is a good name for it!

I seen another tornado report for OK, just a few ago and two people are Fatal. This was a bad tornado. Here is the report.

LONE GROVE CARTER OK 3419 9727 *** 2 FATAL, 25 INJ *** LARGE TORNADO TRACKED FROM WESTERN LOVE COUNTY ACROSS CENTRAL CARTER COUNTY CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE... PARTICULARY IN THE LONE GROVE AND ARDMOR (OUN)

I have been looking to keep the tornadoes here in our area around that 2% mark with best chances for High winds and some possible small hail in places. Lightning I never like and always have my safety plans.....

It will be a long night.....And we should start to see rain here before long closer to 1:am. It is getting close on radar! All have the rain gauges out and ready!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Mike! I hope we manage to dodge the worst of the storms.. and hopefully we will also stay below the 2 inch mark for rain so we won't have to worry about flooding as well!
I am worried about those winds tomorrow though.

-InClintonCo-

Anonymous said...

The rain is starting to move into south Tippecanoe county. We should start to see the rain in the next 30 minutes or so.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

I have a light rain here in Lafayette.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Mike it is 3:14AM and the rain is going rather good! I have a current total amount of .14" inches and still coming down herd!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

OK it is really late and it is raining rather good outside. The rain started right on time.

the winds are still the main threat at this time! We are still in a slight risk for severe weather today and we are in that High Wind Warning. However I still like the severe and stronger storms staying to our south. Here is the Storms Outlook for today below.
___________________________
Hail is looking around 15%

Tornadoes slight chance around 2%
___________________________
This is the same as it has been the past few hours so this tells you I still like our forecast.

we will be seeing rain and thunderstorm through out the day! And the high winds will stick around with us as well. So please remember the safety tips and be ready and safe!!

And after we get through this storm we will be back to winter by Saturday! With another small snow storm system. This is not a big system but we can look for snowfall between 2" and 4" inches possible. We will talk more about that as it gets closer but for now
lets just get through this system.

I'M really sleepy! lol..... And currently up to .30" inches of rain at 3:49AM and counting rather fast!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

4:32Am And I'M up to .46" inches just under a half inch!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Just to let you all know that it is real foggy here in carroll county. I would say about 1 mile of visibilty.

Anonymous said...

Hey all...Justin...wow...you are going to need some rest when this is all done. Moved all the outside furniture that had out back in. Have to go get trash containers when they pick up. Am picking Daughter up at 3 from school then busting butt home. Otherwise she wouldn't get home til 20 til five or close to that. Gravel roads stink and it has been raining pretty well for the past hour. Husband called on way to work and hit a severe heavy patch of rain on 24 heading west. I don't like bad weather and should of not griped about snow. Heard there was more deaths in lastest tornado hit in OK. My thoughts and prayers go out to those families and the ones that also lost homes. Remember the tornado in 74, was way young, but old enough to rememeber all if it. Ugh. Are we to have lightening with this storm? Everyone be safe today. I know I am going to get back home and stay in. Be safe.
Jamie

Anonymous said...

I'M now up to 1.08" inches here in lafayette. with still a light to mod rain coming down.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Looking at the latest maps I don't think that the severe thunderstorms is what we will need to worry about as much as the high gusty winds. I'M starting to think that we are going to be to stable to storm hard today. There will be a line try to push through a little later on but I think the worst will stay south and we will deal with mostly rain and winds! However we will still watcht it closely.....

Justin.

William said...

Justin,

.5" here in remington.

Anonymous said...

Thanks William!

I think our rainfall amounts are going to be closer to that 2 inch mark it will be close! I say this because I'M now up to 1.18" inches.

I would still look for the winds between 2:pm and 10:pm today with that being the main thing to watch for.....I do think we will miss out on the big thunderstorms today!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

OK here is the latest on what we are expected to see today! I have been up all night and am running on only 45 minutes of sleep so hang in there with me lol.....

I really think by looking at the latest that we will miss out on the heavy thunderstorms with this system! I think there will be a line try to pass through later on and the worst is going to stay south of us. We have seen a lot of rain here in Lafayette tonight and still counting! I think we will be closer to that 2" inch mark. maybe a little higher!!

I'M only seeing a little bit of lightning on lightning tracker at this time but that could start to firer up again later on. We will watch this whole system very closely just to be safe and we are not out of the woods by any means with storms just yet as there is still that slight chance for a stray one to move our way but I do think we will try to stable out. With High Gusty winds being the main things to watch gusting to 55mph..........

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Don't like the high winds predicted for us! Get really nervous when I see the winds pick up.

Anonymous said...

I also think the chance for tornadoes is slight and even though the risk is slight the SPC will still keep the WLFI Viewing area in the 2% range with the slightly high chance for tornadoes in the south east parts of IN, around Seymour, and Greensburg, And the slightly higher chance of 5% in parts of OH, around Dayton, and Cincinnati,and anything south.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Hey everybody just think if this inch and a half of rain lafayette has would have been snow we would be digging out of 15 or more inches!

I have a BIG amount of standing water in my backyard right now! And STILL raining!

It is going to be a wet day!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

The only small thunderstorms I see in Indiana is just south of Terre Haute, and north of Vincennes, Right around Sullivan, and Carlisle, And they are light thunder. Nothing bad!

Justin.

William said...

Justin,

Up to .8 in remington.

Brow said...

So according to the radar, all is pretty much past us now?

Or are we supposed to get slapped again with more rain?

The Freak is rather confusing on the maps as I do some development in the west...but it looks like the cold stuff.

Anonymous said...

I do think we still have that chance for some thunderstorms but I don't think we will see anything to bad. I think that will be more south and east of us.

The rainfall and winds are the big pictures to watch. We should try to stable out and miss the bad storms.

Thanks William for your amount I'M currently up to 1.54" Inches. Still a light rain. But it looks like we will get a little break in the rain for a little while! Well you are already seeing a break!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Winds are picking up pretty good here where I'M at in Lafayette.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Should I be concerned about driving from Kokomo to Carmel around 2 and returning somewhere between 4 and 5? I'll be in a minivan with my 2 young kids.

Anonymous said...

Winds are expected to really start to pick up around that time range so I would take your time and be safe.

This kind of wind can make driving hard so allow yourself extra time.(But I would be careful!)

Justin.

Anonymous said...

I am up to 1.6 inches of rain in Tipton. I have been watching radar for the past 3-4 hours..... Clusters of rain, and deep moisture convergence are stalling from the Indianapolis, westward. If the deep moisture remains in a stationary pattern for a few more hours - this can help regenerate moderate to heavy rain.

I think that rainfall estimates need to be revised!! Areas may see another 1-1.5 inches of rain....

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

the Indianapolis AREA....sorry.....

Chris in Tipton

Cheryl in Brookfield Heights said...

The wind is now downright noisy here in Brookfield Heights. Wish I had a wind gauge, but just looking at how the treetops are tossing I'd say that if this is only the beginning, it's going to get really interesting later in the day.

Anonymous said...

OK looking at the latest we in Lafayette is now on the line of the severe weather risk and the northern counties are out of the slight risk.

This has been going as planed so far other then rainfall amounts. I still say the severe will miss us this time around and we will only be seeing Strong winds and Rain..... Gusts to 55mph this can still do damage so be careful!

We look to be ok with storms this time and I'M thankful!

So for today Much like it is already just some higher winds a little later on. Rainfall needs to be watched closely!

Justin

Anonymous said...

Thanks William, for comfirming my rain amount, I have .81 at my wx station and the creek has just started out of its banks. THat would be in my lowest area of property. Farther upstream, still at my location it is bank full but has not spilled over. I am so thankful for this dry slot to allow water to drain as it can.

Temp is at 55*. I have my south window open (wind is not yet a factor, is still of out the SW) and Charlie the cat is loving it!

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

Rain stopped here around a little after 8, wind is rockin. Temp is showing 56. My daughter cleaned out the rain guage and didn't say anything, so it showed no rain for me, which is not true and we got it bad. Over flow on pond is looking a little like Niagra and the creek is up...but not too bad at this point. Starting to rain again, am thankful for the break.
Jamie

Brow said...

Tornado Watches popping up now for southern Indiana now.

Hope it does get as bad as OK was yesterday down there.

Brow said...

I meant...I hope it DOESN'T get as bad as OK was...

You guys are probably thinking...Man, that Brow is a really negative person! lol

Anonymous said...

lol...everyone is entitled to a typo

Anonymous said...

Yep Brow and there is some Severe Thunderstorm Warnings out for areas around Evansville IN,

This is where I say the severe weather will be south and east of us. Like I said in one of my other post ares most likely for severe weather is areas around Seymour, Madison, Greensburg, Richmond, IN, And OH, area like Dayton, and Cincinati,

I to hope it is not like OK, was yesterday. That was really something but this will be something to watch!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

State Rd. 28 is starting to flood in Frankfort across from the high school. The Burger King's parking lot in that area is under water, and the street next to burger king is completely flooded (Hot Dog Street). I saw an SUV stuck in the water there.. the water was up to it's hood. Also, the schools here are dismissing early because of the flooding.

Anonymous said...

The police are at the flooded scene here in Frankfort. Just thought I would add that.

Anonymous said...

There is a lot of puddles in my yard and still raining good.

Current rainfall amount is 1.74" inches. And counting!

Here in Lafayette.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Some Tornado Warnings have been issued for a few counties in southern indiana. I hope everyone stays safe!

Anonymous said...

That is right for areas around Huntingburg, and Sulphur, IN, Or Just east of Jasper IN,

Justin.

Anonymous said...

With the storms in south indiana and also in KY, and TN, there have been no tornado reports which is great news however there has been reports of High wind Gusts. Between 58 and 64mph.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Take a look at this report.

HOMEMADE BASKETBALL GOAL WITH A SIX BOLT MOUNT RIPPED OFF POLE. (MEG)

Others reported trees down in 60 mph winds. This just shows how bad the winds can be!

Justin

Anonymous said...

We may hear some thunder in the next system to come here in the WLFI viewing area. As I'M picking up some lightning. Nothing severe at this time and no severe thunderstorm watches or warning as well. However we will just keep watching it!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 120 PM EST...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR ETHEL...OR ABOUT 32 MILES SOUTH OF BEDFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.


(That is in Southern Indiana)

Brow said...

Justin, are you speaking of the next part of Mr. Freak that is currently out by Decatur, IL?

I've been watching that for a bit now and wondering what its going to turn into.

Anonymous said...

Yes brow that is the one I was talking about that has had a few lightning strikes with it.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Guys and gals, I am up to .94 rain and the creek is flooding big time. I feel for you people who have had almost twice this amount of water. My winds are still pretty calm. Isn't the wind event for us to take place after the passage of the cold front?

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

On the East side of Tippe County I have 1.85 inches so far. Still the same ETA for the high winds, at around 4pm?

Anonymous said...

Here is a report from southern IN, just a few ago. Wind speed was not known.

A CAR WAS BLOWN OFF STATE ROAD 145 IN SOUTHEAST DUBOIS COUNTY. (LMK)

Justin.

Anonymous said...

There has been no reports or watches / Warnings with the thunderstorms to come. However I think the main thing in that next system will be lightning as lightning tracker is showing a lot.

Otherwise nothing severe at this time. Just wanted to let you know you may be hearing thunder here before long.....

My latest rainfall amount is 1.90" inches. Mary Anne hope the creek dont rise to much!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Corydon: SR-135 at I-64
356024

2/11/2009 2:13:43 PM
Air Temperature 58°
Humidity 86%
Dew Point 54°

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wind Speed 29 MPH
Wind Gust 39 MPH
Wind Direction W

Anonymous said...

Rensselaer: I-65 at SR-114
356002

2/11/2009 2:20:35 PM
Air Temperature 57°
Humidity 96%
Dew Point 56°

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wind Speed 10 MPH
Wind Gust 17 MPH
Wind Direction S

Anonymous said...

Cloverdale: I-70 at US-231
356008

2/11/2009 2:10:48 PM
Air Temperature 53°
Humidity 92%
Dew Point 50°

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wind Speed 17 MPH
Wind Gust 40 MPH
Wind Direction SW

Anonymous said...

We have just topped 2" of new rainfall.....a little hazy here....winds have not been an issue as of yet!

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

I am ready to get this over with and get to talking about Friday/Saturday SNOW!!!!!

Chris in Tipton

(Let me be the first to say that there could be up to 6" somewhere in the WLFI viewing area....or close)

Anonymous said...

Winds now are getting stronger.....more horizontal rain now!

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

Gosh Chris, I have focused so much on this severe wx event I have not paid much attention to the snow forecast!

I am at 56*, wind out of the S at 5 mph with 1.02 inches rain.

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

Its sunny here in West Lafayette. Is it going to rain/storm more?

Anonymous said...

Lafayette should start to see the next batch of rain in an hour and 5 minutes. Also a severe thunderstorm has been put out for Danville IL,

Justin.

Anonymous said...

The sun just popped out in Frankfort.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Justin

Anonymous said...

The main things with this next system coming is going to be gusty winds as there looks to be a bow!

And dangerous lightning as I said before.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

The sun just came out! The backlash, according to radar is soon to get us though.

MA

Anonymous said...

How long is the second batch rain will last as the storm drains are full and flooding my basement?

Anonymous said...

Sorry...let me ask that again How long is the second batch of rain expected to last?

Lanna in Frankfort