Tuesday, February 17, 2009

California Crusher Heads to Hoosierland


We have the weather pick of the week today in Lafayette but beware of the "California Crusher". It was easily the strongest storm system of the year to impact California. Los Angeles may end up with close to 2 inches of rain before all is said and done which is like us receiving 10 or more inches of snow. It does not happen all that often. Winds have gusted to 55 mph and the mountains in southern California may end up with close to 3 feet of snow above the 8,000 foot level. Water spouts have also been reported just of
f the coastline. This storm is our next weather maker here at home and the the storm tracks have been anything but consistent. Take a look at what the models were showing yesterday for possible storm tracks. I had to run an extra 2 miles at the gym and even did stairs. What a way to start the week. The blue arrows above show the southern boundary of all the storm tracks (this would have brought our area more of a wintry mix, ice, and snow accumulations) while the yellow and orange arrows above (would have brought a better chance of damaging thunderstorms and heavy, flooding rain to our area) show the northern boundary of the more than 40 storm tracks.

Luckily, early this morning the models have a better handle of what exactly is moving our way and it is a much better scenario for us. I think the red arrows show the closest storm track which would keep it mainly a rain event, while at the same time dodging the worst o
f the heavy rain and thunderstorms. Here is how much rain you can expect and if you notice the yellow areas representing the one to two inch rain bands stay well south of our area. I think we will end up close to the half-inch mark.


Nature has upped the ante on how much rain we receive and what it means to flooding. Last week we needed to stay below 3 inches to avoid most of the major flooding. This week we can ill afford much more than an inch of rain or we are in deep trouble on area rivers and creeks. The good news is that I think we are on track to keep the second crest on area rivers in the minor flooding category which is welcome news.


You can see so far in the month of February we have almost had two months worth of precipitation, not counting all the runoff from the melted ice and snow and we still have a good part of the month to go. The average precipitation for the entire month is only 1.57". The ground is saturated and cannot handle too much more rain. If our storm track shifts farther north like we saw last week then these forecast amounts go higher. Our weather team will take it hour by hour that is for sure and it is a good thing we have our own Live Doppler 18. I am optimistic about the California Crusher not getting its act together until it moves south and east of our area.


This is where I am expecting the phasing of the two jet streams or the polar and subtropical branches you see above. This tends to give storms a lot of extra punch and I am glad this is not taking place over us. The upper-levels always hold valuable clues to exactly what goes on here at ground level and this storm is no exception. Now the polar jet stream will eventually catch up with us and turn our rain over to a period of snow. We could easily pick up an inch or two of snow on Wednesday night and early Thursday with higher amounts possible to our north. Temperatures will start out in the 40s with our change-over to snow coming in late Wednesday afternoon and evening as temperatures fall to the 30s. Slick roads return as we wake up on Thursday.

A much bigger snow event is possible this weekend. Now it is a clipper which is not traditionally our biggest snow-maker but clippers this time of year have more of an attitude to them and I will be back to explain more about that on tonight's newscasts and here on the blog. I will also have forecast snow totals on the way!
Have a great day and just so you do not get too mad about all this snow talk in the forecast I thought I would balance out the blog today with a late February to late March forecast. If you like Spring you may love these maps! Yes, all those red colors mean Spring will likely come early this year!


We talked about how the La Nina is still alive and that traditionally brings us an early Spring here in Lafayette. In March of 2000 we set record highs near 80 degrees on two consecutive days. Temperatures ran about 7 degrees above average for the month. This pattern may repeat itself as a high pressure ridge off the southeast coast builds in early and chases winter away early this year. If you are in Wisconsin or Minnesota do not get too excited. It looks like you will have a snowy March with even a blizzard possible. Now we always worry about severe weather if we warm up too quickly here in Indiana and I will take a look at this with you tomorrow here on the blog with forecast precipitation amounts on the way. So much to talk about and so little time. I better go run an extra few miles all over again. You have to be in tip-top shape to forecast in Indiana and of course have the best bloggers and weather watchers on earth to stand a chance. Here are a few inspirational runner's quotes to fire you up for your next workout.

"At the end of the day, you will never say 'I wish I never worked out today.”


"Run your own race."


"It's very hard in the beginning to understand that the whole idea is not to beat the other runners. Eventually you learn that the competition is against the little voice inside you that wants you to quit." George Sheehan

"Racing teaches us to challenge ourselves. It teaches us to push beyond where we thought we could go. It helps us to find out what we are made of. This is what we do. This is what it's all about."
-PattiSue Plumer, U.S. Olympian

"Ask yourself: 'Can I give more?'. The answer is usually: 'Yes'."-Paul Tergat, Kenyan professional marathoner

"The miracle isn't that I finished. The miracle is that I had the courage to start."

"What distinguishes those of us at the starting line from those of us on the couch is that we learn through running to take what the day gives us, what our body will allow us, and what our will can tolerate."
- John Bingham, running writer and speaker

"Running is a big question mark that's there each and every day. It asks you, 'Are you going to be a wimp or are you going to be strong today?'"
- Peter Maher, Canadian marathon runner

"You have a choice. You can throw in the towel, or you can use it to wipe the sweat off of your face." -Gatorade Ad


"The will to win means nothing without the will to prepare."
-Juma Ikangaa, 1989 NYC Marathon winner



I am now ready to sign up for my next marathon and I think it may have something to do with pigs or flying pigs!! There is so much for all of us to look forward to as we head into the Spring which of course includes T-Shirts and our picnic. I am still working out details on this, but it is happening. Now I am off and running!!! YES!!




41 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mike,
Thank You for the early Spring outlook. Didnt care for the snowy part about March though...lol Better than severe weather

Anonymous said...

Hang in there WI and MN!!!

Joey said...

The storm in California has been making the Tour of California a very miserable bike race- 4.5 hours in pouring cold rain the last 2 stages.

But, the idea of an early spring should help with getting through this weekend of coldness....

Anonymous said...

I have watched some of the Tour of CA, there is no doubt it has been miserable for them.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the update. This storm will be interesting to watch as it develops.

F/C

katkandy said...

Mike, I loved the running quotes. They can be used in anything to do with life. John Bingham's: "The miracle isn't that I finished. The miracle is that I had the courage to start". If we can learn to "take what the day gives us, what our body will allow us and what our will can tolerate", we have done our best. Thanks for the encouragement.

Anonymous said...

You can tell spring wants to arrive! Its in the air, the sun feels so good! Though we may get snow, it will certainly not stay long at this point of time. I am hoping for a warmer, early spring. I will be in Florida in March, so having it nice and toasty will be great!

Anonymous said...

Mike I love all the running quotes! Makes you think about stuff and makes you feel GOOD! Thanks for starting my day out on the right foot.

I can't tell you how much I look forward to that coming picnic! It will be a lot of fun for All!

Well I had better go get some stuff done so I can be here for the next storm tonight!

Have a good one all! Mike don't work to hard! Or should I say Forecast to hard! ;-)

Justin.

Cherry said...

Mike please tell me that it will be WARM next week! Its my birthday on the 27'th and I absolutely HATE HATE HATE SNOW!! I am dying for some warmth here!!

Richard said...

Hey all!! Looks like after this rain event, its gonna be a cold one with the wind chills and chances for snow. I guess the correct word will be Blustery. Ughh

Anonymous said...

So I just checked Accuweather and it's showing 5.7 inches of snow for Monticello occurring on feb 18 and 20 other places saying maybe an inch, what's the TRUE story?

Anonymous said...

i saw 4 inches for our area on accu earlier today. Think 4.7 to be exact. Think snow is overrated, LOL

Anonymous said...

Accu is showing 6.0 for Tipton. I think closer to 6 than 1....but prob somewhere in between....

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

No way anyone can tell this far out.

Anonymous said...

You can tell how much avail moisture there is....and the potential storm track. Yes....there is a lot that you can tell this far out....

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

Hey, Prang Gang! Did anyone see the article in the J&C today about keeping records for CoCoRaHS? it can be read easily online at "www.jconline.com". I so wish Benton Countians would step up to the plate and record precipitation.

Hope you are all "bracing" for the next storms to move in.

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

Hi all, just got home from work and was catching up on the blog, yes MA we will have to brace for the next wx system. I ran into a few snow flakes on the way home, I couldnt believe it! cloudy and some wind at this time.

Teri

Anonymous said...

Hey Mike so far it looks like my high today is 41* degrees. Currently temperature is at 41* degrees as well.

Everybody got your rain gauges ready?

Justin.

Frozen Toes said...

Mike, you have made my day! An early spring! I am from southern California and have lived in Indiana for 15 years and everyone kept telling me I would get used to the cold....still waiting for that to happen! I look forward to warmer weather more and more each day! I will be smiling for the rest of the day! Thank you!

Anonymous said...

Spring must be around the corner because I saw first dead skunk of the year on the road today.

Anonymous said...

I am looking forward to seeing what is going to happen with our weather this week. My kids want outside so bad.
Renee in Lafayette

Anonymous said...

Snow occurring on Feb 18 | Feb 20. Total amount 5.7 Inches. That is the accu for my area! Ugh...I at least it isn't all at once!

Anonymous said...

accu weather has tipp co in the 3.6 inch range

Anonymous said...

Tonight we are looking for the rain to start closer to midnight. The good news is by the looks of the latest track the low looks like it will stay to our north and the heaviest of the rain will stay around the TN, areas. However we could see a few thunderstorms in southern Indiana but Lafayette should be ok. Rainfall for the Lafayette and WLFI Viewing area should stay around that Half inch mark as of now. We will see a few gusty winds tonight into early morning. between 10 and 20 mph with a few gusts to 25 maybe 28 mph.

We will feel around 3* degrees really close to that 0* mark. So dress warm as you go out. Now one more thing We will be rather cool temperature wise for the next few days after tomorrow but never fear we will start to warm back up later on as we head into next week! This will give you something to look forward to and help to get you through our cold wind chills! ;)

Snow is going to be on the back side however we wont see a whole lot this time only look for around an inch this is for tomorrow looking like closer to sometime after 4:pm. With still a few snow flurries on Thursday. We will keep the better chance for snow on Saturday where we could see the 2" to 4" inch range. We will keep watching that as it get's closer. And then talk more about amounts.

But the good news is the rivers are currently at 13.74ft and by 7:am tomorrow we should be closer to 13.4ft which is still a good two feet above flood stage but with closer to a half inch of rain rather then one inch makes a big difference.

Have your rain gauges ready and remember to get your reports in to the CoCoRaHS. They need all the reports they can get!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

I'M sorry Typo!

The wind chills are for Wednesday Night and Thursday! That is when we could see the wind chills close to zero!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Justin, not ready fot the return of the bitter cold, thanks for your update

T

Anonymous said...

Just remember it's not for long!
:-)

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Mike mt air temperature has not droped much all day even now I'M still at 40.3* degrees.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

That is a shame,I hope Comcast changes that soon.
WLFI is a great channel to have around all the cast are great. I really enjoy their broadcasts.



Anne in Frankfort

Anonymous said...

I am at 38.5 degrees.

I doubt that Comcast will add 18....we have WISH as our CBS station...I wish we could have it, even as an add on/pay channel.

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

The rain is showing up on radar. Light but rain non the less.

Storms popping up to our south and west. Which that should stay to our south. Now South Indiana could see some thunder and such.

Snow lovers should get another shot at snow for Saturday currenty it could be the 3" to 5" range! This is before we will start to warm back up after this weekend!

I will have to see if any of our flowers are starting to pop up!

Have a good night Bloggers And Mike.

Mike Don't stay up to late! I will see you all here in the morning with my current rainfall amount.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

I was hoping for a blog update tonight....but it may have to wait until Wed.

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

Had rain thru the night, it is 40 here and the rain has taken a break enought to get daughter on the bus at 630. How is everyone doing this fine morning! Looked on a couple of sites. WOW a trace to five inches of snow. At least some more time in the snow for the kids. Spring flowers are covered since they decided to come up early. So, bring on the snow!
Richard...did you check out the site. Teri...passed on your dip recipe and they loved it. Titled it Teri's Famous Dip! You are star! LOL
Jamie

Anonymous said...

How sweet of you Jamie, glad they liked it.

It is pouring here, just on time,ugh, I am gettig to walk out the door for work, and I spent a hour on my hair and makeup LOL!

All have a super day!

Teri in Laf

Anonymous said...

WHAT???? 4.8 Inches of snow?????.For Tipp. Co.?????

Anonymous said...

Isn't that how it always happens Teri....rain is still just sprinkles here. Have a great day at work. Accu first said 4.7 then 5.7 and now 5.0 inches of snow from Feb 18-20. Looked at another one and it said. Trace to six. Now that is leaving it open. Can't be wrong there. Think I will stayed tuned to Mike and fellow bloggers for the correct info.
Jamie

Anonymous said...

I really injoy reading this blog. I dont post very often but do read it 2 or 3 times aday .... thank-you all for the interesting comments ect! Keep up the great work on the forcasting...it really does help exspically people like me that are handi cap prepair ahead of time for nasty weather! Kathy

Anonymous said...

HEy everybody just checking in with a quick Trace of rain nothing much for now! And a current temp of 46* degrees. However we will be falling through the day. To lows around 17* degrees. Tonight. So any standing water watch for ice!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Hope the snow comes on Saturday for the Polar Bear Plunge. Brrrr...

Anonymous said...

OK I'M currently up to 0.02" inches of rain.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Cold front about to head through....I am at 55 degrees....30s not that far away!!

Chris in Tipton