Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Convertible Tops Down Weather, But Storm Chances Up!

Diana Marion shares a picture with us that best describes the weather pattern we are having. It is hard to believe we are waking up with temperatures 15 degrees warmer than our average high and after feeling like April yesterday we will feel like May today. This really is gator weather and soon we will have migrating alligators crawling into the Midwest if we keep this up. Yes! Spring fever has hit the Lafayette area and my car's top will be going down this afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to near 70. The record for the date today is 69 set back in 1932 and I do think we will challenge that 77 year old record without a doubt. Our rain should hold off until after midnight and the combination of sunshine and a strong south to southwest wind at all levels of the atmosphere will do the trick. The good news is the windy weather will help evaporate our soggy soil. Now for our reality check. No migrating alligators for us because snow will be back in the forecast by Thursday. We may have dodged most of the rain last night with less than .20" in most areas but late tonight and Wednesday will be a different story as our Spring weather collides with winter. You can see why below.

Something had to give for nature to seek some sort of balance and here is our big storm on way late tonight and Wednesday. You can see the tightly cranked isobars. What I am carefully watching is the storm track. Based on this we could actually see a dry slot move our way during Wednesday after waking up with thunderstorms. This could cut our rainfall totals by at least a half-inch. The other good tidbit is that there is no stationary front that will stall out over the area like we saw during last winter's historic flooding. I do not expect a repeat. Here is the latest Precisioncast 18 numbers on forecast rainfall between now and Wednesday night.

If we can keep our rainfall totals under the critical two inches in the Wabash watershed I think we are in good shape and will dodge the worst. Right now I do think we stay under two inches based on the map above and hopefully closer to the 1.4 inches it indicates! This would likely bring minor flooding to the area. But we do need to remember while we have gotten rid of our snow there is still plenty of ice floating down our area rivers and creeks. Take a look at the North Fork of the Wildcat Creek in Carroll County this past weekend where they had ice jam problems. Joe Hufford took this eye-opening picture for us. Luckily this ice jam did not last long or there would have been some flooding problems as the water would have been diverted from this creek to areas where people live.
These possible ice jams are certainly something we need to take into account and even if we miss out on the heaviest rainfall we will have to be on guard for flooding. My motto is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. With this said, I still do have bigger concerns for flooding from Indianapolis southward where there will certainly be a higher risk of seeing two or more inches of rainfall and they also melted down about twice as much snow as we did over the past few days. This could still change and our weather team will make sure you know of any changes to the storm track which could impact our forecast rainfall and river flooding in a big way. Another wild card to this whole equation will be thunderstorms which could dump heavy amounts of rain in short periods of time.


Thunderstorms will be feeding off our warm and tropical air mass that will be colliding with winter weather. We are in a severe weather risk area late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Your Live Doppler 18 is ready to go and you can see the shaded areas where I think strong storms could hit late tonight and Wednesday. Our viewing area is under the yellow shading which means our highest risk will be damaging wind gusts, but you never rule out isolated tornadoes as we found out last February. The orange shaded areas which runs roughly from Interstate 70 southward have a higher risk of strong storms and even isolated tornadoes. It could get very interesting on Wednesday. This is another reminder to have your family safety plan ready to go by late tonight and Wednesday.

Enjoy the great weather today and I will look forward to posting our May temperatures here on the blog later today. I will also have the latest on our forecast rainfall, strong thunderstorms, and river levels. Thanks for all the great pictures and remember our first day of Spring officially begins on March 20th, but meteorological Spring is only 19 days away and begins on March 1st! So if you like warmer weather do not let the forecast of snow back in the forecast get you down. The warm spell we are enjoying will be coming our way more frequently as we quickly move toward Spring!



59 comments:

Anonymous said...

We dodged one weather maker! Hope that the next system decides to take a turn north and have a big dry slot.

Anonymous said...

I hope that we have some good lightning and thunder....I can do without hail and strong winds....and certainly tornadoes.... JUST A TASTE OF SPRING....THEN BACK TO WINTER!!!!!!

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

Wabash is up and if we hit a dry slot in this next pattern it would be teriffic. Hate to see any flooding. I will take the rain then the snow. If it was a snow maker we would have significant amount snow.
I am enjoying the warm weather, to bad it wont. Really looking towards Spring.

Richard

Anonymous said...

to bad it wont stay

Anonymous said...

Mike,
Hope you got all of your Spring cleaning done. What a job ughh!! Atleast you ought to feel good and its theraputic.

Anonymous said...

We do have a job cut out for us later on tonight! It will be a long night for me and all Bloggers. I had better head off to bed have a good one and I will see all here in the morning!

Night. Mike looks like our radars will be working hard and overtime tonight. Everybody remember your Lightning safety tips and be safe!

Main things this time are Lightning and High Gusty winds.

Justin.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-101645-
/O.NEW.KIND.HW.A.0001.090211T1500Z-090212T1200Z/
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...
SEYMOUR
342 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2009
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW...VERY
STRONG WIND WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO OVER 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS A COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WIND WILL STAY IN
THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES WIND WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

WIND OF THIS STRENGTH CAN CAUSE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. WITH A
SATURATED GROUND FROM RECENT SNOW MELT AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED TREES COULD EASILY BE TOPPLED IN THE STRONG WIND. IN
ADDITION TO TREE DAMAGE...POWER OUTAGES COULD ALSO OCCUR AS LOOSE
TREE BRANCHES AND TREES COULD FALL INTO POWER LINES.

ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS WILL BE AFFECTED BY HIGH WINDS.
TRAVELERS SHOULD REMAIN CAUTIOUS WHEN MAKING TRAVEL PLANS ON
WEDNESDAY.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

Anonymous said...

I dont like that post!

Brow said...

What an awesome looking moon this morning! I tried to keep my eyes on the road coming to work this morning but found myself staring at it and drooling like some kind of early morning zombie. uhhhhhhhhhhhh. moon big. uhhhhhhhhhhh. :)

Yeah it looks like the worst of that front is going to be down south and we may end up sleeping through most of it. Gotta drag out the ol weather radio though.

Anonymous said...

I hope it is not like around Christmas, have a warm day then have a tornado warning. My work place was so hot yesterday! The whole place is still set on winter mode. No need to change it yet though.

I am so excited, because, yes well will see ups and downs like this. But, more warmer weather will start to play a larger role in our weather. I just hope we have a normal spring, I remember leaving for florida with snow flurries! below normal. Honestly, I think if you can get through January, its all good, the rest is all down hill.

I am going outside to clean the car.

Anonymous said...

I love storms and have to be so I can see it, the dogs are scared to death of thunder. My little dog is so scared that he will hide under blankets and shake. He has to go to the vet today and has to have teeth pulled tomorrow. He will shake the cage door open. I'm going to take a sheet so he can hide under it. I hate to drive in high winds tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

GREAT moon shot, Brow!! er--I mean that is a neat pic of the moon, lol!

Yep, it is apt to be a late night for us storm trackers, members of the Prang Gang. Although the latest info I have read is the storms will be coming in close to dawn. I like that better than 2-3:00 a.m.

Oh..I had .16 inch rain, how about the rest of you? Time to dust off those rain gauges!

Enjoy the warm day!

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

Brow,
How do you post pictures on here?

Anonymous said...

I agree with you I dont like that post in large caps. I dont mind the information but anyways. I hear that system may not get here until after midnight. Anyone hear any difference?


Richard

Anonymous said...

Brow,
Nice shot!

Anonymous said...

Mary Anne I ended up with .08" inches last night.....

Richard here is the latest I just finished.

As you know high gusty winds are going to be a BIG problem. We will see winds between 15 and 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph pushing 50 some mph in storms. I still think the main Severe weather will stay to our south but still main things for our area will be High Gusty Winds, And Lighting.....Currently tornadoes are looking like 2% still we can never rule them out BY ANY MEANS when there is a chance for severe weather. We all seen what happened last December..... We can't rule out any hail just yet as well. I have my radar up and ready to go! The storms are still looking to be starting closer to 1:00am this morning.

I will give you all more %% on hail and tornadoes as we get a little closer when things become more clear.

Richard I hope this helps.

Justin.

William said...

Justin,

.15 here in remington

MA what did you get?

William said...

MA,

sorry I did not see your post before I posted mine.

Anonymous said...

Thanks William.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Justin,
I appreciate your excitement and hard work on trying to make us weather aware. I dont get to search alot of things since this is a shared computer at home...lol Never ask your spouse for the computer when he or she is busy :)
I try to look at maps when things come in and by watching the blog I am learning.

Richard

Richard

Anonymous said...

Hey Everybody! I have got a few things I have to get done so I will catch up with you all later on. I will for sure be here before the storms hit!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

just got in from hiking. It as awesome, although muddy. It was fun! Very very windy here. It is so beautiful out. Guys are out cutting these nasty thorn trees out of pasture. Must fix lunch for them. Hope everyone is enjoying the great outdoors...I sure am
Jamie

Anonymous said...

Wow, tornadoes down south of Indy and I-70!!! Hopefully that doesn't shift north and we have to deal with it!!! What are the chances of tornadoes tomorrow Mike??? Is this thing coming in tonight with all the severe stuff????

Anonymous said...

i wish the sun would come out so me and the kids can enjoy it...we are thinking about going for a walk at the park
oh and my tornado dreams are back..crazy lol
Renee in laf.

Anonymous said...

Hey all we are now in a High Wind Warning. From 10:am Wednesday to 1:am Thursday. The High wind watch is no longer in effect.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

For Wednesday We are looking for winds to be between 25 and 30 mph and gusts to 50 maybe even 55mph. This is just as bad as tornadoes sometimes and this kind of wind can do a lot of damage. If you can stay home and not be on the roads tomorrow through the afternoon and evening then that would be best.....

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Do you think that schools will take the warning? Busses on the roads with winds that strong can be a dangerous combination.

Anonymous said...

I do think the best chance for some strong severe storms would be between 1:am and 5:am. Then after that we will still be seeing thunderstorms and Gusty winds which will be through much of the day Wednesday.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

I hate severe weather. Scary! :-(

Anonymous said...

Oh no, the sun is coming out..I do not like that one bit ! and I bet the schools will be open with no worries.That is bad wind

Anonymous said...

RIGHT NOW - Live video of a tornado in Oklahoma, just NE of Oklahoma City... being shown on MSNBC. Looks like a big one.

Cheryl in Brookfield Height.

Anonymous said...

well I just went out and bought bottle of red wine:) calms me down if the weather gets bad, I do pace from window to window...almost panic! I am freaking now! I hope we dont have too many severe stroms, I will be broke from buying red wine

Anonymous said...

Wow some winds! Not looking forward to that. I don't like bad weather. Just checked my alarms to make sure ok. Will keep posted to the blog for further. Thanks all that are keeping up with it.
Jamie

Anonymous said...

WOW... that is the most ridiculous thing that I have ever heard.. closing school because of wind.. are you kidding me? You disgust me.

Just looking for the slightest thing to close school?!?

I understand that travel could be affected by the wind, but not that much.

Anonymous said...

I could actually see closing schools if wind is severe enough. It could threaten children (especially for the little ones) waiting for the bus, blow out windows when children in their classrooms, etc. Think about it.

Anonymous said...

Looks like someone else needs some wine to take the edge off...

The serious threat with this wind event will be the trees and roots that have been saturated with water. Not to mention everything else that can fly in 50-60 mph winds.

Jason

Anonymous said...

Wine drinker...woud you come up here and share with me??? Just kidding..I freak out during severe wx, sometimes I can get panicy just knowing there is a chance of it.

One thing to do is just stay tuned to the blog,TV-18, radars (many free ones out there), learn to forecast your own wx for you particular area, get a WX RADIO (very important!) and have a storm plan for you and your family no matter where you are. I watch radars from south and west of my location so I know which storms are going to hit my location and what is in them, as well as time of arrival.

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

To Cheryl in Brookfield Height. Thank you for posting info on the tornados in Oklahoma, I have family that lives there!

The have an underground vault that they can go to, it was paid for by the goverment... I contacted other family members to let them know, we are very worried.

Teri in Laf.

Anonymous said...

If you still have not taken down the Christmas decorations- Mother Nature will be here soon to help.
Everyone be careful!

Jason

Dogmom Cheryl said...

Teri - I'll be keeping your family in my prayers on what looks like it will be a rough night for Oklahomans, Texans and Missourians.

Cheryl

Anonymous said...

To the poster regarding school closings and how you are disgust you,

Remember the winds in Dec?. gusts were around 40-45 mph. and alot of damage was done. Wind gust of 55-58mph is too bad for our kids to be in school , and for the bus drivers.

Anonymous said...

Get over it, weather is a fact of life. Get to work, get to school, and get over it.

Anonymous said...

People were KILLED in car accidents last week in Indianpolis due to bad weather, it is very serious. School buses may have trouble steering, or there could be trees down in high winds. There is a National Weather Service WARNING for a reason. It helps to be well prepared.

Anonymous said...

There were people killed in Indianapolis last week due to heavy snow and white out conditions. They were not killed simply because of the wind. There were other factors involved.

Closing school for wind simply does not make sense.

Homeschool your child if you do not want your son/daughter out in the crazy Indiana weather.

Anonymous said...

Mike stated on the news that wind gusts could, yes could reach 65 mph..In the old days an F0-F1 tornado winds were regesterd from 61-110 mphs...Not intill the last few years did that change. Straight line winds and gusts are just a dangerous as a tornado.....You must not have children, if you do you must not care about their safty..Just like sending them out in 38 below temps..

Anonymous said...

I want to apologize to Mike and the blogging family. When I posted and signed as "dogmoomCheryl" so as to show a link to my blog, it included the little golden retriever picture. I don't know how to prevent this, so in future I will post as "anonymous" and sign at the bottom. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Cheryl in Brookfield Heights

Anonymous said...

You caught me, you're right. I don't have kids. I do have neices and nephews that go to the surrounding schools though.

Mike also stated that we will be getting 3-6 inches of snow on saturday. So you might want to pull your child out of school just an extra day in case the roads are bad.

Anonymous said...

So you think that tractor trailer drivers can control their trucks with 65 mPH winds? You go try it.

Anonymous said...

I remember about 8-10 ago there was a wind warning.I live in Frankfort and worked in Lafayette. It took me almost 1.5 hrs to drive there. My car was being blown all over the road and downed power lines and trees.It was a mess and very scary when you seen semi-trucks swaying everwhere. I hope everyone stays safe tonight and tomorrow.

Sam

Anonymous said...

I like the little Golden Retriever picture, no need to apologize Cheryl!

Anonymous said...

Sorry,

I forgot that students are being transported to school in tractor trailers these days. By all means CLOSE school. It could be horrendous!!!!

-John

Anonymous said...

As you stated snow on Sat..no school on Sat...you obvious are not a parent LOL

Anonymous said...

Obviously large trucks OR buses can easily lose control in high winds.

Anonymous said...

OH my Goodness, enough is enough! I hope all will stay safe, and be prepared for what nature has to blow at us.

Hold to your hats with this wind..I can understand all the worry about the winds and our children,..

This is a friendly blog floks..please keep it that way!

Cheryl in Brookfield Heights
Thank you for your kind words..we have not heard from family, and cell phones are busy can not get through..

Also Cheryl I looked at your blog, very cute!

Teri

Anonymous said...

Teri, just watched TWC about the OK tornadoes. They hit a part of the city of Edmond. I think an 8-block area is what they reported. Hope all is OK with your family!

MA

Anonymous said...

Justin, or anyone else, do you have a zulu time site, or a sheet you could share? That Zulu time confuses the heck out of me!

MA

Anonymous said...

Hi in Lafayette here, ummm... so where's this horrible wind at?

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