Thursday, February 26, 2009

Dense Fog Lifts, Now We Brace for Wind & Rain


I hope everybody is doing well and feeling well. The late winter flu that has been going around has hit my family. My daughter is home from school for the third straight day. She seems a little better today but this thing going around seems to linger on forever and I have been fighting it for most of this week. No way will it keep me down. There is just too much interesting weather to track. Now the big question is will we need urgent care when it comes to our weather today and tonight. First of we can blame all the illnesses going around on the incredible ups and downs in our weather and there really is no end in sight. Take a look at
forecast high temperatures by Friday.

This morning we did need to slow it down on area roadways with visibilities down to near a quarter-mile in many locations with patchy dense fog. This was due to a warm, moist south wind that caused our dewpoints to rise while at the same time our temperatures were slowly falling. The closer your temperature and dewpoint the better chance of fog developing, especially with light winds and that is exactly what happened. The worst of the fog will be out of here by mid-morning as we start heating up and the wind picks up ahead of rain.

Speaking of rain....how much is on the way and will there be flooding?


Let us start with the area rainfall. So far this month we have had 2.52" of precipitation in Lafayette. February is normally our driest month of the year and we average only 1.57" of precipitation. Well this year we will likely double our February
monthly averages and on top of that we have melted down about .75" of liquid that was stored in the snow pack we had. This means we do need any more rain or snow. The ground is saturated and our rivers and creeks are still not far from bankfull. Well, I have good news! The latest model data has most of our viewing area receiving less than an inch of rainfall. The main track low pressure track will be heading to Chicago and it is far northern Illinois and Indiana that will have the heaviest rain. So even our friends in Remington, Rennselaer, and Winamac should be okay. We could see a slight rise once again in our river levels but I am not expecting flooding at this time. Bottom line is that most of us end up with less than an inch of rain.


Severe weather potential: I went through a big list of things this morning that includes wind shear, helicity, upper-level winds, and instability indices. The good news is I think we will not only dodge the worst of the rain but also the severe weather. Things are just not lining up right at this time. The atmosphere will be most unstable at 9 p.m. but the main cold front that will add lift to the atmosphere does not arrive until after midnight. The jet stream that usually adds spin to our thunderstorms that can lead to damaging wind, tornadoes, and even large hail is well south and west of Indiana. Areas near Oklahoma and Arkansas look to be the bullseye for the big thunderstorms. You see the severe weather risk above and I agree that it should stay west of our viewing area.

The one thing that I did find interesting is that once the front comes through after midnight we could briefly see wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph outside of thunderstorms. When you are going from temperatures from near 60 today to only near 30 by late tomorrow this huge temperature gradient creates big pressure differences and a higher likelihood of high wind gusts. I do think the high wind gusts will not last more than a couple of hours so a high wind advisory will not be likely. It will remain breezy though with wind chills falling into the teens by late on Friday.

Tonight make sure to tune in and we will track the rain and wind together and find out about a very cold weekend ahead. It may be so cold that chances of snow will be possible as far south as Alabama, Georgia, and even the beaches of South Carolina. We will take a closer look at major changes that have taken place in the atmosphere over the last 10 days and why it may be a sign of a much colder March. Remember to send in some rain totals and I do think we could still hear a few rumbles of thunder tonight but the line of storms will dramatically weaken as it moves our way after midnight. This afternoon we will have a weak line of scattered showers which means we can still head to the park before winter makes a comeback. It is time for lunch! I am ready for some egg salad and soup! Be safe and stay healthy!

29 comments:

Anonymous said...

The fog wasn't too bad here....Now I am preparing for rain. (Hoping for SNOW!)

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

I hate that this blog keeps getting censored. I thought that was what a blog was about. A place for people to yak and express their opinions even if ones disagrees. What happened to free speech?

Anonymous said...

Attica
temp 45.7 Rain and fog 12:39 p.m

Anonymous said...

Mike I hope all at your place gets better real soon as well.....

It has been raining here in Lafayette for a little while and is now starting to tapper off but only for a little while! ;)

I have 0.02" inches of rain from that line of showers.....

Justin.

Nathan said...

It's raining fairly heavily in West Lafayette right now. Temp is 47.9*

Annie said...

Does anyone on here have opinions or knowledge about weather systems throwing women into labor? I am very eager to meet our new little dumpling, and with every storm system that comes through I get a little excited. Any thoughts????? :)

Anonymous said...

What is being censored??

My mom had a baby right as a major snow storm hit...2 of us during very abnormal heat waves and one in the spring when the weather was fine. I don't know if there is a scientific reason...

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

Mike My current rainfall is at 0.08" inches and counting. We still have some rain over our area in Lafayette however it is moving off the the north north east then we will see a little break before more rain.....

Justin.

Anonymous said...

.09 here and it is 42 degrees. Fog lifted tenish. Just a gloomy day.
Jamie
Carroll County

Anonymous said...

Hi all, just got home, steady rain, and a lot of standing water.

Very foggey early in the am. but around 7:30 the fog was lifting a bit. 50* where I a located at this time..Not ready for the wind to start picking up!

Mike, Renee and Jamie, hope all you and your children start feeling better soon. My daughter still has the sneezles..ugh!

Be safe out there

Teri in Laf

Anonymous said...

typo foggy:)

Anonymous said...

HI Annie! I can assure you babies are more likely to be born before a storm, as when pressure is low. You can ask delivery room nurses. The day my oldest DD was born there were four babies born that day and not one of us was due. You may not remember my story but she was born during a road-closing snow storm which means pressure was very low. She was four days early.

So far I have recorded .10 rain with a nice temp of 48*

MA in REM

Anonymous said...

I was born during an ice storm

Anonymous said...

This is MIKES BLOG! and he is sharing it with us, a friendly blog most of the time.

I have not read the posts that were removed, MIKE had a reason..glad I did not!

Mike maybe you should add this to your blog so others will know why posts were removed...This came from WLFI. Com...

Opinions that are derogatory, attack other users, offer unsubstantiated facts or are offensive in nature will be removed as defined by the Terms of Service. We reserve the right to remove any offensive or off-topic remark or thread. To mark a comment for review by a moderator, click "Report Abuse."

Please all be kind, and let us reg. bloggers enjoy!

Anonymous said...

that is glad I did not read..

Mike you are the best..i can speak for many who love and rely on your blog..Thank so much!

Anonymous said...

.30" rain in round grove so far today.

Anonymous said...

It is still raining in Rochester. Many areas have standing water in the ditch. I did not have time to drive out and look at the Tippy River.

F/C

Anonymous said...

Free speech is gone on this blog.I said it once and i'll say it again,because one does not have the same opinion as another does'nt mean they should be viewed as a negitive person.My statements have never been derogatory in anyway,towards anyone.Ive never attacked anyone personnel,nor would I.I've not been off-topic,afterall,I did ask "Richard" how the weather was in attica,he must also be the moderator."You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"...Bob Dylan

Anonymous said...

A very petty sunset in Laf. Bright orange..All keep safe, and watch out for the wind and lighting tonight and early am!

Teri In Laf

Anonymous said...

What a line of storms beginning for form! WOW! All the way down to the southern west states looks like they could hit Tipp Co

Anonymous said...

I would not rule out a few good booms and possible stronger storms in the southern parts of our great state. This would be South of Indy. We will still have the gusty winds later on tonight with some of the rain / thunder and after as we head into Friday!

So tonight I think our main things will be breezy with winds between 15 and 25 mph gusting to 40 mph maybe even 45 mph at times. We can also see these winds gusting to 35 to 40 mph in the early morning of Friday before they start to calm down..... We may see a few light snow flurries on the back side of the rain however it will be light and nothing much at all.

There is severe thunderstorm warnings in IL, but currently nothing in Indiana, Which lets hope it stays that way ;o) lol..........

We will start to see whats left of that line closer to 11:pm or midnight. No I don't think we will have to worry about severe thunderstorms tonight just gusty winds..........

Justin.

Anonymous said...

I was watching the weather channel, bad storms and poss tornados heading to St. Louis!

Annie said...

Mary Anne and Chris-
Thanks! My daughter was two weeks early so I'm reeeeaaallly hoping this one comes early too. After not making it to my due date the first time, I can't imagine going late! Yikes!

Hmmm.... I hope those storms don't come in too early--my husband has to walk home from the west side!

Anonymous said...

Wind is picking up in Laf.

Anonymous said...

Hey Mike my current temperature is at 56.3* degrees and I see a lot of lightning popping up on the lightning trackers in IL, and a few strikes in northern Indiana.

All be safe lightning is very dangerous and does kill more people a year then tornadoes and hurricanes together!

Please just remember your lightning safety tips!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

It does look as though the storm cells are trying to weaken as expected!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

I have been watching the radars and maps and their have been a lot of lightning strikes in IL, however after watching things closely I can tell that the line of storms are starting to weaken and calm down. The wind on the other hand are not! I have seen wind gusts in IL, already of 40 mph.....And we can say that This is heading our way as we have already seen the wind pick up a bit!

This is really what we have to look forward to! We are seeing rain move into our area however the line we are looking for is still in IL, working its way here. I think we will start to see it closer to 11:pm tonight.

Severe thunderstorms I think it is safe to say we will miss that! You will be able to rest with no problem but the wind rattling the window may keep you up :-/ SO winds gusting to 40 mph maybe a little higher are VERY LIKELY.....

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Hi all...just got home from Laf and can tell you this....just as we got off at exit #201 the wind picked up (had seen two flashes lightning b-4 we exited) and as we turned west on #24 the rain blew in sheets while the van rocked. I was glad to get home. Peak gust was at 29 mph. So far rain is at .20(falling at .55 per hour) That amount will change shortly as it is pouring again! The line of storms is coming through at this time.

Glad to be home!

MA In REM

Anonymous said...

Rain is up to .42. Wind has died down a bit.
G'night all!

MA