Monday, January 26, 2009

Things Looking Juicier & Warmer on Latest Runs!

Hello! We have been playing the waiting game all night and it does concern me that temperatures are at 17 in Monticello and 19 in Lafayette at 10 p.m. Dewpoints are also rising. So this cold, dry dome of air looks like it will succumb to a strong, moist southwest flow. We were supposed to be about 4 degrees colder and a little drier at this time. What this means is our snowfall forecast at WLFI which has been on the higher end of all the area forecasts across the state looks on target. The warmer temperatures and higher humidity is a sign of more snow on the way, not less.

The latest storm track is slightly farther north which I expected and already adjusted for in my snowfall forecast earlier. So as of now we are still in the 3 to 5 inch snow band.

One big concern is that with the warmer temperatures tonight I am worried about the ice mixing in farther north which could include areas just south of Interstate 74! Watch out, the dreaded winter of ice may come back to haunt some Hoosiers tomorrow and we will have to watch it even here at home. I will make sure to keep you updated.

38 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mike time a been flying by!

I'M keeping busy with all kinds of maps and Watching that Ice line!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

thanks for the update Mike, I guess I will go to bed, have to be at work at SIA by 6AM. I am hoping that get lots and lots of snow. It doesn't look like anything will be falling tonight though, looks like Indy south will be the bullseye.

wishing it would snow

Anonymous said...

are we going to get anything before 8 am, even just an inch? so far looks like indy is getting the goods.
thanks

Anonymous said...

Mike Lafayette has a current temperature of 19* dew 6*

Indy Temp 18* Dew 12*

Bloomington Temp 19* Dew 16*

Dew points are riseing.

My current Hum is at 53%

Was at 45% around 9:00pm

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Ok Mike Down in Chester IL, They have 0.21" of Precip, and visibility was only at 2.00 and 3.00 Miles. This really is a big system.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Mike and all! getting ready for bed, after watching the new:))

Sleep well and all be safe tomorrow morning, we may have a little snow to deal with on the roads.

Teri in Laf.

Anonymous said...

according to Purdue Airport, our humidity is upto 59% and dewpoint is now at 7. Looks like the radar is indicating snow in Frankfort

snow crazy

Anonymous said...

I am still dry in Tipton. All I can do is tell you guys....trust me. There is enough moisture...enough of a northern push of the main low...that I fully expect areas around Lafayette to get 4-5 inches....Crawfordsville up to my spot and Marion areas...5-6 inches...and Indy may get 10 INCHES OF SNOW!

No meteorologist in Indianapolis, short of Brian Wilkes....will dare go there!!

This is based on the 0Z model runs...if things go 25-40 miles MORE NORTH....we all will get the brunt!

Best advice....STAY TUNED!!!!!!!

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

Wow I was blown away to not have checked in for a while as I ran errands and now looks like we are back with the snow! Oh boy this is fun.

Anonymous said...

NOW....being the honest observer that I am....and being a 17 year science teacher...let me tell you my fear with this one. FOR ONCE IT ISN'T THAT THE MODELS ARE WRONG. It isn't that the southern flank of this storm will rob moisture....My fear is that as the storm moves along the Ohio River...or just south of it...the storm will 'wabble' to the south...keeping the heaviest mositure south of here.

This IS POSSIBLE! We will know more after looking at model runs tomorrow am.

Chris in Tipton

PS- YOU ALL WHO GET WLFI/Mike on your cable or dish are lucky....I can not get him except here.

Anonymous said...

how are warmer temps causing more snow? even if there is less evaporation, wouldn't that be offset by the lower snow ratio of possibly 10:1 instead of 15:1 lowering snow fall totals. I would say 3.5 inches would be a good guess

Anonymous said...

William in remington is going to bed. I will be up early to watch this thing.

Anonymous said...

So snow or no snow tonight across Greater LAF?

Anonymous said...

More moisture to work with...yes, ratios a little less....but this one was working with 15:1 or so. Plus the warmer we are....the closer the brunt of moisture will fall....

C in T

Anonymous said...

There isn't much we can do tonight except sleep in anticipation....or stay up, because we can't sleep in anticipation.....

C in T

Anonymous said...

More moisture to work with...yes, ratios a little less....but this one was working with 15:1 or so. Plus the warmer we are....the closer the brunt of moisture will fall....

C in T


Thanks C in T because I have to drive around a lot tomorrow morning during rush hour so these forecast have been making me a poco nervous.

Anonymous said...

I am expecting no snow in my area tonight....this includes Lafayette....

C in T

Anonymous said...

If we were looking at a 30:1 ratio which sometimes will happen in cold air....we would be in trouble....however...we are sitting pretty....no worry. TUES DRIVE will be fine!! Wed AM drive....totally different story.

C in T

Anonymous said...

Oh well that's definitely a relief once again thank you.

Anonymous said...

No problem....I think most of Tues will be ok....late evening thru the overnight will be rough...

C in T

Anonymous said...

Chris
Mike is a super guy a very pleasant young man a nd a great Father figure. We have no cable and plan on not getting it with since Cat has started laying off. We are cutting back for the worse on the economy. Anyways I watch his weather video and read the blog. So don`t feel cheated the computer is an excellent tool if used right.

Anonymous said...

Thanks- I agree...never having met Mike...just knowing him from emails and the blog/net...he seems like a fantastic person. Someone who in all honesty...should move on to greener pastures. He has the talent to be in a big market. He is here bec he loves what he does.

C in T

Anonymous said...

I totally agree!!! If he leaves WLFI for a great position, he would be missed and I would hope that he would still keep in touch with a Lafayette Blog. :) I think he will stay with WLFI so his kids can finish school before any transition.

Jennifer said...

Justin-
What kind of maps do you use? I have been serching the net tonight looking at different sites.

Anonymous said...

We are lucky in this area....we have 2 top notch meteorologists....Mike and Wilkes at 59. There are a couple of other good ones....the rest are garbage.

C in T

Anonymous said...

Look at the mans work load and then runs marathons. I wouldnt be able to keep up with his pace. Also I think Mike is a great mentor.

Anonymous said...

I can't agree more!!!

C in T

Anonymous said...

I don`t use maps unless it is spring and severe weather is on its way. Winter is for hibernation... I go to work shower and kick back....lol
I use weatherunderground for the thunderstorm season.

Anonymous said...

Justin and Chris have you used weatherunderground.com I like the nexrad radar its nice to be able to see the tracks with color warning lables on the arrows in the direction of the storm path.

Anonymous said...

OK I think for tonight into the early morning hours we will see a few light snow flurries to showers and see a break for most of Tuesdsy afternoon and really see the next part of the system by later in the afternoon around
4:pm or 5:pm. and then into Wednesday.

I hope all got your shopping done Today while you could for it will be a winter mess here befor long.

And I use a lot of Noaa models and prog charts.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

I have used weatherunderground. I like it....it's good....yes, the radar is outstanding. I use all weather sites....I get model info from nws and accuweather. The subscription service is well worth it....if you are a serious weather buff....and willing to learn, or teach yourself. It is hard....I have spent 10 years talking to great weather people to learn all of the neuiances (sp?) of the models...biases...etc..

C in T

Anonymous said...

I am hoping for an MP blog update before 1AM....

Chris in Tipton (C in T)

Anonymous said...

Still awake and waiting for the first flakes to fall. Think I better head to bed, and just enjoy it better tomorrow! Wondering if we should make the trip into Indy tomorrow evening??? Whatcha think guys???

Annie in Attica

Anonymous said...

In a word....NO! Heck- I have 4 wheel drive, and I wouldn't drive on 65 or 31 in any real weather this winter....remember...SALT SHORTAGE!

Stay home!!!!!

C in T

Anonymous said...

Anne you go ahead and go to indy. I just had surgery Mondey and I do not feel like trying to push you if you get stuck.

Rich in Attica

Jennifer said...

Thanks for the info. I like to look at the maps so I know what is coming. I was hoping for a blizzard before spring but I don't think that is going to happen. Guess I should move farther north. LOL

Anonymous said...

I would love to visit the Northwest territories but would not want to live there at all. I lived in NY for 2 yrs and turning the heat on in August was not what I anticipated from being a native of Indiana.

Rich

Anonymous said...

i am heading to the north woods for spring break to get a peak at some snow and do some snowmobiling. I hope I can atleast get my feet wet in some indiana snow right in my front yard before i go though!