Tuesday, January 27, 2009
New Runs Level Off With A Few More Answers
I have not forgotten about you. Here is the latest! There seems to be more agreement with exactly how much moisture we will have to work with but again with a potent jet stream it could add just that little extra lift that makes the difference between 3 inches of snow and 6 inches of snow and since this storm is still developing I did not want to deviate too much from the original forecast. I do like the upper-level divergence over our area early tomorrow evening and I do think we will see about 3 to 4 hours some hefty snowfall between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. Lollipops of 6 to 8 inches with this storm are still possible from Indianapolis to Montgomery and and even Clinton County. Lollipops is another term for "bullseye" that I like using sometimes. You of course remember those swirly lollipops that looked like they had "bullseyes" painted on them. Tomorrow we will fine-tune this even more. Be safe on the roads and get those errands done in the morning and early afternoon. I will get a little rest and appreciate you staying up with me....oh yes here is how far we have come on the models and how off they have been! This is why we will watch this storm hour by hour.
This chart is the average snow forecast of the dozens of weather models I have been watching since last week for our snowstorm that will be moving in late today and tonight. You think my three daughters give me gray hairs but really it is weather models. LOL...Although it will be a combination of the two by time they reach their teenage years. I know I will need your help!!
I ignored the models most of last week and even over the weekend since I knew the models were not handling things very well. Remember the snow Sunday morning? I did feel they would not catch on until the storm was almost here and sure enough I finally have more confidence in them here about 14 hours before the snow really starts to come down. Better late than never.
Our original forecast of 3 to 6 inches we gave late Friday night is looking like a winner. What can possibly go wrong between now and tomorrow night. Plenty! We know how Indiana weather is and the good news is we will have updates no matter what here on the blog and on the tube and we have Live Doppler 18 we can turn to.
Now the question is how far north will the 6 inch band actually go and if some of our southern counties could actually have spotty 8 inch amounts. I certainly would not rule it out at this point. It should be fun to watch. I will go try and get some sleep. Now I will have updates for you in the early morning if I see any big changes. I will likely wait until late morning and early afternoon to get another model run under our belts before you hear from me. Sweet dreams!!