Tuesday, January 27, 2009

New Runs Level Off With A Few More Answers


I have not forgotten about you. Here is the latest! There seems to be more agreement with exactly how much moisture we will have to work with but again with a potent jet stream it could add just that little extra lift that makes the difference between 3 inches of snow and 6 inches of snow and since this storm is still developing I did not want to deviate too much from the original forecast. I do like the upper-level divergence over our area early tomorrow evening and I do think we will see about 3 to 4 hours some hefty snowfall between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. Lollipops of 6 to 8 inches with this storm are still possible from Indianapolis to Montgomery and and even Clinton County. Lollipops is another term for "bullseye" that I like using sometimes. You of course remember those swirly lollipops that looked like they had "bullseyes" painted on them. Tomorrow we will fine-tune this even more. Be safe on the roads and get thos
e errands done in the morning and early afternoon. I will get a little rest and appreciate you staying up with me....oh yes here is how far we have come on the models and how off they have been! This is why we will watch this storm hour by hour.

This chart is the average snow forecast of the dozens of weather models I have been watching since last week for our snowstorm that will be moving in late today and tonight. You think my three daughters give me gray hairs but really it is weather models. LOL...Although it will be a combination of the two by time they reach their teenage years. I know I will need your help!!

I ignored the models most of last week and even over the weekend since I knew the models were not handling things very well. Remember the snow Sunday morning? I did feel they would not catch on until the storm was almost here and sure enough I finally have more confidence in them here about 14 hours before the snow really starts to come down. Better late than never.

Our original forecast of 3 to 6 inches we gave late Friday night is looking like a winner. What can possibly go wrong between now and tomorrow night. Plenty! We know how Indiana weather is and the good news is we will have updates no matter what here on the blog and on the tube and we have Live Doppler 18 we can turn to.

Now the question is how far north will the 6 inch band actually go and if some of our southern counties could actually have spotty 8 inch amounts. I certainly would not rule it out at this point. It should be fun to watch. I will go try and get some sleep. Now I will have updates for you in the early morning if I see any big changes. I will likely wait until late morning and early afternoon to get another model run under our belts before you hear from me. Sweet dreams!!


65 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks Mike Your the Man.
Now I can go to bed. :)


Richard

Anonymous said...

thanks for the update mike! now go get some rest so we can do this again tomorrow, and enjoy the white stuff!!!

Anonymous said...

Sounds good mike!!

Rest up I got some more work to do! ;)

My family has been on my but to have at least 3" to 6" inch range lol. I can't let them down! Believe it or not even now my sister will still kick me but lol.....

Justin.

Anonymous said...

That's great news, hopefully we can squeeze out at least 6 inches in Warren County, I need it!! Thanks Mike. Get some sleep all...if you can, we'll need it for tomorrow!!

Anonymous said...

I am still wide awake and checking your blogs here in Dayton Mike. Hope to see the more of a 5+ after tomorrow ! yeah ! Thanks for being an ALL-NIGHTER keeping us informed here on Your blog !
WE LOVE YOU MAN !!!

Anonymous said...

I can't believe I can't sleep! LOL Like a ki9d in school waiting on a snow day! And I'm home bound anyways! Still a kid at heart! Do love to see the fresh untouched snow, so pretty! Thank-you so much for the blog Mike I read it everyday and enjoy all the things you do, what people don't understand is you do this on your own it is not part of your job. You do this cause you are a wonderfull person that loves what he does and his family, and is pround to share that with others! Keep up the great work!
Kathy

Anonymous said...

Mike dor President!!!

Anonymous said...

For*

Anonymous said...

Mike this is great to see everybody here in the WLFI viewing area coming together and watching this system! Believe it or not you bring out the best in not only people but our great community!

I for one am very glad to know you!

I will be here bright and early in the morning if I ever even get to bed!

I love to track systems of any kind however some are more quick going then others! I like to think of winter as a long time forecast rather then summer where a Thunderstorm comes in and you never leave you spot it is so fast and things change is a second!!!!!

But we can thing about that later! ;)

Another thing we will be thinking about later on will be a small alberta clipper system for Thursday into Wednesday that currently looks to be bringing around one inch to an inch and a half! Again we will watch that later for now lets just have fun with this one! :-)

Justin.

Anonymous said...

I'M sorry for Thursday into Friday (((typo)))

Justin.

Anonymous said...

I awoke at 4:00 this morning, and I see many of you were busy last night. I enjoyed reading all the posts, and I guess, we will wait to see what today brings us.

I just heard the Fulton County is now in a weather advisory. I will have to check on that.
F/C

Anonymous said...

Well we need to remember this kind of system can and will move a lot! From the models right now! I still like 3" to 5" or 3" to 6" I don't feel we should add yet! For now the models are avg out to this range.

We will keep watching it closely and I agree with Mike I would like to have a few more model runs before we really call anything just yet! We are going to have a even better idea when we get into this afternoon.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

4:15 am EST, Tue., Jan. 27, 2009

... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW TO INDIANA. SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A BREAK IN THE SNOW WILL ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LATER THIS AFTERNOON MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME MODERATE SOME WILL BEGIN IN THE LAFAYETTE TO MUNCIE AREAS TOWARD THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. IT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THE MORNING RUSH HOUR NEW SNOW FALL WILL BE 4 TO 5 INCHES. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED UP SOME. THE MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNRISE UNTIL NOON. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT IN THE AFTERNOON.

SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE REFINED AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Anonymous said...

I agree - even the National Weather Service still doesn't know the actual path of the snow:

"SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE REFINED AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. "

Anonymous said...

what a relief to wake up to no snow and no snow day for the kids.. so the next question is it apaers the storm is way south which i am not complaing but are going to get any snow today? and mike thanks for staying up all night to keep us posted

Anonymous said...

The models I have looked at this morning, not that you can believe them, show the system further South than yesterday.

Anonymous said...

This blog does remind me of a political bog at times. You have two sides that are diaboically opposed. One side wants to curcify the weather guy because of a "best guess", and the other side who thinks he walks on water and wants to build him a shrine.:)

Anonymous said...

Since I was so irritated with waiting's post I forgot to say, Mike you do a great job, keep up the good work.

Anonymous said...

I agree with the rude comments....no place for that here!

I think things are still looking good....and the map that Mike has looks right on....at this point!

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

It looks like the gulf jet stream didn't really push the ?artic jet stream north as much as the Indy and Ft. Wayne system thought. I see the second storm brewing but I don't see it giving us 5". Maybe 1-3" unless the system shifts northward. The second storm is predicted to hit us tonight...any thoughts on times?

Cheers

Anonymous said...

If we want to play with the 3-6 range I see closer to the the 3. This system needs to giddy up and head north if it's going to. Right now its not. A few hours from now that could change. Just another opinion.

katkandy said...

Dear Weather bloggers, I noticed during one of the earlier posts last evening that someone titled "waiting" had complained and left rude remarks at some point in the last day or so. Can you tell me which blog they did that on. I can not imagine anyone having the gall to criticize someone as dedicated and caring and thorough as Mike is on the weather. After all, we could look at weather patterns every minute of every day and it is up to
God with whatever weather He wants to give at any given time. Thanks for coming to Mike's defense...
Also, I want to thank the person who came up with the idea of Mike or WLFI getting t-shirts made with "Weather with the Prang Gang". I even thought "Prang Weather Gang" sounds cool, too. Everyone be safe when God's snow comes...

Anonymous said...

From a friend of mine in Southern Indiana very close to the KY border.

Since I had so many PM's this morning, I thought that I'd send out a mass PM about our situation. We are under a Winter Storm Warning til noon on Wednesday. We were supposed to be North of the ice line and get 9-12 inches of snow but the ice started falling about 7pm last night. We got a good hour of freezing rain to start and then about 10 hours of sleet and then it's been freezing rain since about 6am. We have over 2 inches of sleet alone and EVERYTHING is glazed over. It's supposed to stop sometime soon and then the freezing rain is going to start all over again this afternoon and then it might change over to all snow and they are still saying that we could get 6 inches of snow on top of this. Travel is horrible out. It took DH over an hour to get to work. All schools are closed and most businesses too. People are losing power left and right. We still have our power and I'm hoping that it continues to stay on. I'll keep everyone updated as the day goes on. TTYL

Anonymous said...

Looking at an Evansville blog they got anywhere between 1-3 of snow mix last night
But are looking for another 4-6 tonight. I hope we get something.

Cheers

Anonymous said...

Wow it quite this morning. People must be catching up on sleep to watch the snow tonight :-)

Cheers

Anonymous said...

Believe it or not I still will go with our 3" to 5" or 3" to 6" range. The models are a mess and they new models will keep coming in! I will keep watching them closely and I still cueerntly see this system going more north then the models show so I will keep my forecasted amounts for now!

One thing is for sure there is a lot of moisture with this system. I don't thing that will be a problem. I will be back as new stuff comes in.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Was surprised to wake up to not even a skift of snow. I am sure we will get our fair amount later today. I agree with Justin....I hold strong on the closer to six tho. Get some rest as it looks like you are in for the long haul on this one :)

CarrollCoGirl

Anonymous said...

Another thing is with the way this system is going we could see it start as soon as closer to 1:pm this afternoon. If anyone has to go out I would do it now. This way you will not need to be out wher it hits.

I do currently think we will be between our 3" to 5" or 3" to 6"
We won't give up! ;) For now we will check out the latest model runs as they come in. That will help.
Justin.

Anonymous said...

I got about .25 new snow overnight....a dusting. I didn't expect anything last night. I can tell you that one model still has my area (Tipton/Elwood/Muncie) in a 6-8 inch range for tonight. There is one model that has us at 2" for tonight. Models are not set in stone....they are not 100% as we all know.

I think that 3-5...4-6....still sounds good

C in T

Anonymous said...

I think by the time the system goes north it will be to far east to get heavier snow in our area. Southeastern IN and southern Ohio look prime areas.

Anonymous said...

I agree....that the bullseye target looks to be Indy south and east....maybe 10" + ice/sleet....more snow than that if they don't have major ice....less snow if they end up with more sleet....I think we still have a good shot at that 4-6 window...I look for the NWS to revise their adv/warnings sometime around 3:00.

C in T

Anonymous said...

This is to justin or mike. Do you think monticello or wolcott are in the path of this storm. I live in monticello and have to travel to wolcott for work around 4:00pm and if it is do you think the roads will be bad because i dont get of intill 3 am and i really dont want to be travlin in this thanks

Anonymous said...

The main bulk of the next low wave is still expected to arrive later this afternoon. What has become obvious is that the system seems to be stretching out time wise. Almost all 12z models have increased moisture content significantly, and with some extra time, will push this farther north.

I am now convinced that this means higher snow totals in central and northern Indiana... and perhaps more ice into southern parts of Indiana.

I am now understanding what I told Mike last night....we are in for more than the 3-6 inch potential...I think that 5-8 inches for our area looks good!

WAITING FOR MIKE!

C in T

Anonymous said...

Bullseye still looks to be the greater Indianapolis area.....if it stays all snow....another 10" possible!

C in T


COME ON MIKE!!!! Back me up!!!

Anonymous said...

I see the models are coming together as well and that the moisture content for our area has increased.

Anonymous said...

Light snow flakes in Rensselaer.

william

Anonymous said...

If this thing follows the jet stream then we could get a lot of snow.

william

Anonymous said...

I agree! Justin?? Thoughts??

I am betting Mike up's us to the 5-8 band....

C in T

Anonymous said...

This is to justin or mike. Do you think monticello or wolcott are in the path of this storm. I live in monticello and have to travel to wolcott for work around 4:00pm and if it is do you think the roads will be bad because i dont get of intill 3 am and i really dont want to be travlin in this thanks
____________________________

This is going to come down to tracking north or south! I will say this system has been a wild one. And things have changed everyday even up to this point. I really want to let all know this kind of system can and will move a lot. We need to keep a close watch on it.

Another thing is some models are again showing us with .37 to .50 of moisture / liquid. this will keep our range for 3" to 5" or 3" to 6" range for now! again it can move more north yet! We do have a lot to work with.

All I can say is for now Lafayette and areas around us 3" to 5" or 3" to 6" range maybe for now around Monticello currently 2 to 4 but we will keep watching this. We are starting to see that snow break the Indiana state line so all keep watching for the snow flakes.....

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Stefanie Davis just did the noon weather for WLFI and said 1-3 inch accumulations. Still looks like the bulk of this stuff is heading south to me.

Anonymous said...

WOW!!!! I see that Indy TV stations are FINALLY on board with this!!!!!!!!!

C in T

Anonymous said...

Another thing to remember we all know this system has a lot of potential we just need to be calm on amounts and keep looking at the radars and modles. Use our gut and look at current in outher areas.

We can always add on later if needed.

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Bulk south? YES....they will get potentially double what we get....

With still a 15:1 ratio, which is what it is looking like....5-8 inches for our area looks very reasonable. Some places may come in with 4.5"...especially Lafayette and spots NW....places SE of Lafayette may come in at 7-8 inches.

Terre Haute to Indy to Richmond may see over 10" if this stays all snow for them.

C in T

Anonymous said...

My gut last night told me 4-8...especially after looking at the late am models today....which are just a guide....I really feel that unless this storm wobbles south....we will get our snow.

I hope Mike updates us soon!!!

C in T

Anonymous said...

I would never advocate watching another meteorologist however, at 12:30 it might be worth checking out what Jude says on Channel 13

Anonymous said...

yes its true, laffy and indy stations are now agreeing on amounts... laffy and frankfort area 4 to 8 inches.. ... indy to terra haute areas 8 to 12 inches.. lets hope it holds true as us snow lovers have been waiting all season for this.. .. Please everyone be extemely carefull, whether we get 3 inches or 10 inches... SNOW DAY !!!
Brandon S indy

Jennifer said...

There are light snow flakes falling on the north end of Lafayette. Come on snow!!!!!

Anonymous said...

It's snowing here right now! (Tippecanoe County)

Anonymous said...

Nothing here yet....TIPTON 12:40

C in T

Anonymous said...

Have you even noticed that the weather people in the morning and noon show often totally contradict each other? I would only go with Mike's forecast, I have been watching NOAA.gov radar most of the morning and it does now look like the moisture is coming alot further NORTH. I believe the Lafayette area will end up with at least 6 inches of fluffy snow

Anonymous said...

We are seeing the snow fly!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Looks like the only snow Jasper county will see is on TV. Bummer.

William

Kirsten said...

Mike- Thank you for keeping such a great blog for all of us. I finally made the big switcheroo from Comcast to Dish which means that I no longer get Channel 18 weather. I check your blog multiple times per day for an update. Your dedication, hard work, great attitude always keep me coming back to wlfi. Have a great afternoon!

Anonymous said...

Snow just started here....very light!

I think that all of Indiana will see snow....Jasper Co...that is pretty far north...maybe 2 inches?

C in T

Anonymous said...

Snowing like crazy in Warren County right now, near West Lebanon!! Woohoo, I love it, bring it on!! Everyone be careful!!

Anonymous said...

Ok everybody if this system stays on this northern track then we could see more in the way of snowfall.

Right now the snow is branching out to the north which is also showing up more heavy bands. This is good for snow lovers. As well as we are already seeing snow hit the ground which means we are moist enough which is good news and We may have to add to our totals leter this afternoon. For now I see enough liquid for the 3" to 6" range and a chance for more!

We just need to keep all posted but in time we may go to 5" to 8" Now that does not mean I'M calling for that right now so lets don't think that just yet! I'M just saying there is a chance!

I still think Indy will have more mixed to deal with and we will watch that as well!

I will keep in touch see you soon..........

Justin.

Anonymous said...

nws has us in 4-8 range for now

Anonymous said...

U said that ud add more later if needed. Later when? After its over?

Anonymous said...

lter this afternoon I'M currently looking at more models and trying to get a strong forecast! I would like to post a forecasted amount that will not be a big Flub.

And currently if that .75 liquid keeps moving up then we could see 71/2 inches.

I like to be sure!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

weather people on wlfi do not agree with each other odd jude on 13 has us in 4-8 range snowing in crawfordsville.

Anonymous said...

1;15 pm and just starting to fpit snow here in monticello,,,,,

Anonymous said...

sorry, ia excited,, spit snow.... in monticello

Anonymous said...

Good Justin!! We all need to be sure before posting amounts..... The snow is just getting started, and this is a complex one for sure!

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

Lafayette is currently right on the northern edge. Any shift to the south and were out for now. Further to the north and we"re golden.

Anonymous said...

So why is the NWS showing lafayette at 80% chance of snow showers this afternoon yet its coming down?