Monday, January 26, 2009

Don't Write off the Storm Just Yet By Any Means


The interesting part about this storm is it certainly will be one to watch hour by hour. It is not very often that you have a sub-tropical jet stream roaring into Indiana with winds of over 150 mph by later tomorrow. Our models have been known to do poorly in these situations. Now my blog over the weekend did say we had the potential of 3 to 6 inches of snow for storm number one which is tonight through Wednesday morning with another 1 to 2 inches possible for our Thursday into Friday storm. This would give us a grand total this week of 6 to 8 inches. I still think we could come out close to 6 inches by the end of the week in Lafayette with at least 3 to 5 inches of snow between tonight and tomorrow night looking likely. I will break all this down for you here on the blog soon so it is nice and clear-cut, although again things still may change.


Our models have been so bad in the past week we have had reconnaissance aircraft fly out into the Pacific Ocean to help fill in some data points. This is why on Saturday when there was only a 20% chance of snow for our area according to the latest models I said to NOT believe it. My how things have changed. Now that the models are showing snow over us I am still thinking we have to all work together and watch this very carefully. In addition you see the circled area above showing the energy that will eventually form the main area of low pressure that will be bringing us snow. That is right the low hasn't even formed yet. Stay tuned.

Now the question is how much will the storm track change in the next 12 to 24 hours. Will it wobble north. Well, there is no blocking to the north and even though we do have a lot of cold dry air in place this will not be enough to keep a nice surge of moisture coming our way. At least two models are showing at least .25" of precipitation over Lafayette and with high snow ratios of 20 to 1 that would come out to close to 5 inches of snow before all is said and done with our first storm. Snow growth will be maximized in our area because of the cold temperatures. Areas in southern Indiana may have icing issues and again this would bring those heavier bands of snow farther north into our area.

So we will stick by a 3 to 5 inch forecast for now with storm number one (most of the heavier snow will move in tomorrow afternoon and evening) which starts late tonight into late Tuesday night with a break in the morning and another 1 to 2 inches of snow Thursday and Friday giving us plenty of snow for the kids to sled on. We still may have to increase these numbers. It should be fun to watch. Of course the storm could also wobble farther south as well and it would decrease our totals. Stay tuned and keep up the great job blogging.



32 comments:

Anonymous said...

AMEN BROTHER!!! Let's not give up just yet....I am calling upon all to pray to St. Jude....sometime before 10PM tonight....!!!

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

Remember....St. Jude is the patron Saint of LOST CAUSES.....and snow this winter has been just that!!!

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Chris, what do you think for up in carroll County. Accuweather said possible 2-5 with an additional inch tomorrow night. But the warning only said 3.8. I am all for the snow, cause now I am seeing the winter nasty grass in the yard from the prev. melt off
CarrollCoGirl

Here is tha answere about the warning!

WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM
CST/ THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ WEDNESDAY...
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING.
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION...3 TO
4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...MAINLY A SNOW AND SLEET
MIXTURE IS ANTICIPATED. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO
2 INCHES ACCUMULATION BY TUESDAY EVENING.
USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVELING THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AS UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK.
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL ALSO DEVELOP SLICK SPOTS AND TRAVEL
MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Anonymous said...

Heading to work.....more from me in a bit

Chris in Tipton

Anonymous said...

This is a serious question to the snowmobilers. How much snow does it take to have a good run on your machines? Would as little as 3 inches be enough for you to go out and have some fun?

Anonymous said...

Hey Mike I have been sticking with the 3" to 6" inch range and as always we can add on later. This is really a fun system to track however tricky!

Justin.

Anonymous said...

Mike: Thanks for the update and the work that you do. As I have said in previous posts, I'll let you have the snow, as long as it stays out of Fulton/Northern Cass Counties.

WSBT in South Bend is still cautioning that this systems needs to be monitored closely. It will be interesting to see what happens.

F/C

Anonymous said...

I never counted Mikes forcast out! We just very well may get our 6 inches

Anonymous said...

Lots of factors on determining how much snow you need to fire up the sled. Clipper systems from the north tend to generate a lot of fluffy snow, which is not good for riding unless there's a base of hard packed snow beneath. With fluffy snow, the snowmobile tends to act more like a snowplow, and can tear up the skis and track in a hurry. The type of snow I look for around here is the nice wet snow that you can make a good snowball with :). A good 3 or 4 inches of that stuff and I'm ready to rock and roll!

Ryan in Delphi

Anonymous said...

Thanks for clearing things up Mike, I'm going to keep the faith!! More would be great, but I would be satisfied with 3-4 inches out of this storm!!

Rick said...

3 inches is the minimum for snowmobiling, anything more becomes better. 3 inches of heavy snow is better than light fluffy snow because you start tearing up grass and equipment.

fishhawk

Anonymous said...

Thanks Ryan. I hope you get to go out and have some fun.

Anonymous said...

You too fishhawk. Please don't buzz my house at 1:00AM :)

Anonymous said...

Thats the best time to snowmobile, at night when its quiet, the snow is falling at your at peace with the world, you can stop, shut of the engine and just sit there and listen, the snow is pure and peaceful.

Rick

Anonymous said...

Thank you for the update Mike!

I stayed with Mike's forcast and Justin's info!

So glad I went to the grocery store on my lunch time! I hear they are getting very busy at this time..

Teri in Laf.

Anonymous said...

CarrollcoGirl....where are you in carroll county? i live in burlington

Anonymous said...

Any update hour by hour from anyone on whether the system is holding its course or moving and in what direction is appreciated.

Anonymous said...

It is so hard to know what's what. Because, all the different stations are all calling for different amounts.

I miss the days before the computer models, the 70's, back then the weather people flew by the seat of their pants and used their talent, training, and gut feeling to call, usually, a pretty accurate forecast.

This was before cable and The Weather Channel too! So, usually the local Indy stations were unified in their predictions. There was no 10 different stations calling for 10 different outcomes!

I remember back then a ticker tape would roll across the bottom of the TV calling for 6-8 inches. And, 9 times out of 10 they were right! I know because I used to go outdoors with a yardstick and measure it during and after!

Today, weather people rely too much on these damn models. Try using your talent, training, and gut more. Trust the force Luke!

Hopefully, this will be a good sized storm. Thanks Mike for your tireless diligence and for trying your best. Try going with your natural talent more, study those maps more, remember your training, and let those computers be an aide, not an absolute!..........Ron in Crawfordsville

Anonymous said...

I live in the northern part, north of Delphi about 10 miles. I am not far from the White Co line, nor the Cass County Line. So, I sometimes wondered which forcast is for me, LOL How have they kept your roads since the first of the year. Prior to Jan 1st I wondered if we would ever see sand on our hills....Now since the first of the year they are sanding like it is their job
CarrollCoGirl

Anonymous said...

Great post Ron.

Anonymous said...

I do hope gets a chance to enjoy their snowmobiling. I love to see them go past late at night, then they don't have to worry about everyone out on the roads and whoever said it was awesome to just sit with the engine off and be at peace is so right.
CarrollCoGirl

Anonymous said...

Well said Ron. I couldn't agree more. But for once I believe Mike did do what you suggested. All models called for this system to stay South. I can't speak for Mike, but I believe he used his gut and remembered these systems have a history of going 50-150 miles further North than the models show.

I think that is why he called for more snow for our area than others. And this is from a person who does believe the weather folks rely entirely on the models.

So hats off to Mike. Right on wrong he trusted the force this time.

Anonymous said...

What do you know...another snowstorm predicted...another one misses us.

Anonymous said...

Seriously...the one time we NEED it to go North, it won't go enough....and when we need it to stay put, it heads up to Minneapolis...Indiana weather stinks

Anonymous said...

come on snow lovers, we need to band together and do whatever it takes.and i agree on the peacefull sounds of snow at night. i dont have a snowmobile but do love to take walks in it at night. Hi Rs, hows it going down there.. Becky from Monticello

Anonymous said...

come on snow lovers, we need to band together and do whatever it takes.and i agree on the peacefull sounds of snow at night. i dont have a snowmobile but do love to take walks in it at night. Hi Rs, hows it going down there.. Becky from Monticello

Anonymous said...

Remember they are predicting...mother nature gets the finally say :)

Anonymous said...

Even the South Bend stations can not agree on this one. WSBT passed off this storm, that guy is in love only with his lake-effect snow. WSBT briefly mentioned 3-4 inches for Pulaski/Fulton Counties. WNDU spent more time discussing this storm, and advised may be an inch or so for Fulton County.

As we are talking about snow, I am worried about the people who will be seeing the ice and freezing rain. Hopefully, they will all use common sense and be safe.

F/C

Anonymous said...

Ok Well Winter Storm Warnings are now moving closer to us. Way to go Mike it looks like gut instincts are they way to do it! :-)

Cheers

Anonymous said...

Mike..thanks for all you do...but in your next post, could you explain what has changed from what you thought would happen that has caused us to not see the storm shift as far north as you previously thought...
thanks

Anonymous said...

Yes...Mike, please tell us what went wrong...thanks

Anonymous said...

Heres a novel idea.Start telling us what we,re going to get in the way of snow,and not what you want.