Monday, January 26, 2009
Don't Write off the Storm Just Yet By Any Means
The interesting part about this storm is it certainly will be one to watch hour by hour. It is not very often that you have a sub-tropical jet stream roaring into Indiana with winds of over 150 mph by later tomorrow. Our models have been known to do poorly in these situations. Now my blog over the weekend did say we had the potential of 3 to 6 inches of snow for storm number one which is tonight through Wednesday morning with another 1 to 2 inches possible for our Thursday into Friday storm. This would give us a grand total this week of 6 to 8 inches. I still think we could come out close to 6 inches by the end of the week in Lafayette with at least 3 to 5 inches of snow between tonight and tomorrow night looking likely. I will break all this down for you here on the blog soon so it is nice and clear-cut, although again things still may change.
Our models have been so bad in the past week we have had reconnaissance aircraft fly out into the Pacific Ocean to help fill in some data points. This is why on Saturday when there was only a 20% chance of snow for our area according to the latest models I said to NOT believe it. My how things have changed. Now that the models are showing snow over us I am still thinking we have to all work together and watch this very carefully. In addition you see the circled area above showing the energy that will eventually form the main area of low pressure that will be bringing us snow. That is right the low hasn't even formed yet. Stay tuned.
Now the question is how much will the storm track change in the next 12 to 24 hours. Will it wobble north. Well, there is no blocking to the north and even though we do have a lot of cold dry air in place this will not be enough to keep a nice surge of moisture coming our way. At least two models are showing at least .25" of precipitation over Lafayette and with high snow ratios of 20 to 1 that would come out to close to 5 inches of snow before all is said and done with our first storm. Snow growth will be maximized in our area because of the cold temperatures. Areas in southern Indiana may have icing issues and again this would bring those heavier bands of snow farther north into our area.
So we will stick by a 3 to 5 inch forecast for now with storm number one (most of the heavier snow will move in tomorrow afternoon and evening) which starts late tonight into late Tuesday night with a break in the morning and another 1 to 2 inches of snow Thursday and Friday giving us plenty of snow for the kids to sled on. We still may have to increase these numbers. It should be fun to watch. Of course the storm could also wobble farther south as well and it would decrease our totals. Stay tuned and keep up the great job blogging.