Somebody Call off the Squirrels! Here Comes More Stormy Weather

Courtesy of Raymond Gray

You just have to keep a sense of humor in this weather pattern. Many folks have seen just as much sunshine so far in the month of December in their basement than outside. An amazing 10 of 11 days have brought a variety rain, freezing rain, thunder, sleet, and snow. We have had just about everything imaginable except a good dose of sunshine and today will mark our 9th consecutive day with recorded precipitation. We have received less than 10 percent of our possible sunshine this month. So I have found the culprit! It has to be the squirrels. You can see Larry from Lafayette pictured has the look of "I told you so". Can somebody call off the squirrels? I was calling for a stormy December but this is getting ridiculous. We talked about the squirrels here on the blog and how they were all very active and that the last time they were this active we had a blizzard. At this point I would love a blizzard! Give me anything except ice or rain. We have already had about 3" of precipitation here in Lafayette for the month of December when we only average 2.43" and we are not even half way through the month. This heavy rain is taking its toll. Flood advisories were issued in Newton and Jasper Counties yesterday. Here is what it looked like.


Courtesy of Mary Anne Best

Mary Anne's backyard in Remington looked more like a river as Carpenter Creek came out of its banks. The combination of a frozen ground and heavy rain do not go together very well. The water simply had nowhere to go. Mary Anne had about 2 inches of rain and counting as of late last night. Here at WLFI we registered 1.14" and counting. We continue to be right on the dividing line between record-breaking heat to the south and cold arctic air to the north. Ripples of low pressure or storms love feeding off of this big contrast and when you add in a strong jet stream get ready for a very storm period. You can really see this by checking out Tuesday's high temperatures.



Yesterday we had high temperatures in our viewing area that ranged fromthe middle 30s in Remington to 50 in Crawfordsville. There was also a record-breaking high of 72 in Louisville, Kentucky! No wonder nature is licking its chops over us. You can say with confidence this is one of our wildest starts to December on record after I tell you there is a tropical storm that has been pounding Hispaniola with 60 mph winds. Hurricane season officially ended November 30th and tropical storms usually only form in December in the Atlantic basin once every 15 years. That sums up our December so far!



Meet tropical storm Olga. Now if Olga did not interact with Haiti and the Dominican Republic and moved north of the island it could have actually made it to Florida as a hurricane! The good news is that it should be a much weaker storm now that it has been shredded by the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Can you imagine? Well just before I let you go this is not all. We want it to go down as one of the wildest starts to December ever right?



Let me introduce you to Miss European. Yes, this is the name I give one of my favorite long-range models or weather maps. This is actually the ECMWF model which stands for the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting. This is usually the best long-range model that meteorologists turn to when trying to figure out a forecast several days in advance. Now Miss European may not be your favorite if you do not like snow. Here is what she is telling us. You can make out Lake Michigan on the map above and then notice the green and yellow shaded areas moving over Indiana. This is actually a rich supply of moisture that will be moving our way over the coldest air mass of the season this weekend. You can even make out a low pressure area moving up over Kentucky. That is right! The low pressure is moving along in the old Ohio Valley storm track that usually brings us some of our biggest snowstorms. The black areas represent the drier air. It looks like we will have plenty of moisture to work with and will still have a strong jet stream and energized atmosphere. This is the reason I am calling for our biggest snowstorm here in Lafayette since the blizzard of 2007 this coming up weekend. Now please do not spread rumors that another blizzard is coming. I do not expect a blizzard, but at times it will look like one with lots of blowing and drifting snow. Along the East Coast there very well could be a real blizzard. Here at home we will have at least 3 or more inches of snow and it would likely move in Saturday and end by early Sunday. I will continue to fine-tune the amounts for you so make sure to tune in. Just remember do not blame me, blame the squirrels or Miss European. Have a great day!

Nature Spares us the Worst of the Ice Again!

There is no blocking high pressure like we saw over the weekend so get ready for mainly rain and lots of it. Flooding will be our biggest threat over a rock hard ground. Notice on our accumulation map that even though our northern tier counties are in a Winter Storm Watch I expect very little if any ice accumulations thanks to temperatures that will start to rise overnight. The only sign of any big storms will likely hold off until the weekend, but I cannot promise you we will see much in the way of sunshine. So the least I can do is share a few icy pictures that will really light up the screen. They look almost like paintings! Here were some of my favorite. I appreciate all of the pictures you send in and cannot thank you enough.


Richard Beetle found some flowing water at Williamsport Falls which is also known as Indiana's tallest waterfall.

Monty Sloan shows one of the wolves at Wolf Park trying to jump up and knock ice off the trees. The wolves love ice and I learned that they apparently are great jumpers.

Cassandra Schomer shows us a frozen penguin with a beak full of icicles. This is the first time I have ever seen a penguin look cold!

Dennis Massie shows us Boswell, Indiana's Hawthorne trees looked like they were full of jewelry or at least nature's jewels!

Joseph Linn shows us some more iced berries!

Jerry Matthews woke up to a tree on Canal Road that was highlighted in fine ice. The freezing fog added that little extra touch to really make it look like a postcard picture.

Thunder Freezing Rain Glazes Lafayette

What a wild weekend! We all had an early wake-up call with thunder in December! Are you kidding, this is not Florida and it was only 31 degrees! We had what is called thunder freezing rain which shook the area and coated us in thick ice. This is another way of saying you have a thunderstorm with freezing rain. Check out the radar lighting up like a Christmas tree which is certainly appropriate for the season. This was possible

with freezing temperatures because we actually had huge amounts of heat being released into the atmosphere with tremendous amounts of condensation due to a sub-tropical flow moving over our cold dome of air. This created plenty of rising air and this vacuum effect lit our skies up with lightning. I received amazing pictures from the storm and cannot thank you enough. I did want to share this igloo picture with you which was sent in just before the ice storm. Take a look!

The Blacker Igloo

What a great job! Jacob was a big help to his Dad and it took 350 blocks of snow. It is safe to say after this weekend the igloo is now an icegloo! Tonight it does look like the worst of the ice will miss us and I will post forecast amounts shortly. I am still recovering from the weekend but I am a marathoner and will get my second wind, especially in this kind of pattern. I will be back after a quick water break.

Ice Storm Warning Update

1:00 p.m. Sunday


The Weather Deck has been renamed the Ice Deck

It is great to hear from Mary Anne in Remington...she has about .25" of ice. I am glad she is safe and sound. I was getting worried about her. My weatherwatchers are like family.

Here are some ice pictures from WLFI TV-18 in West Lafayette, Indiana. The good news is that ice accumulation has slowed down here at the station and the heaviest freezing rain is now moving to the east. We are holding steady at a .25" of ice with the potential for another .10" on the way. I do think the worst of the icing is over so if we can all just slow it down on the roadways we should get through this thing okay.




Huge pine trees are no match for mother nature as they are bent to the ground.

Our petrified TV-18 truck full of ice!







4-foot icicles hang off our dishes...bigger than my 3 year-old!


11:30 a.m. Sunday



Ice Accumulation update. Peru just reported .20" as of 11:43 a.m. It is amazing our roads are doing so well. We just called the Tippecanoe County highway department and there are no major problems on the main roads. But be careful of less traveled roads and straight-aways with little traffic. These are the areas that are becoming slick along with untreated roads, bridges, and overpasses. We had a frantic call from Rensselaer of trees being bent to the ground, but no downed trees or powerlines. The heaviest ice is now moving out of Newton and Jasper Counties but it may be too little too late for some trees. We will have to monitor that area closely because once you get above a .50" of ice things really go downhill in a hurry.


9:45 a.m. Sunday



It has been busy here at TV-18. Lee Ann Okuly and I have been making calls and measuring ice. We woke up to thunder freezing rain and with the heavier precipitation our freezing rain advisory has been upgraded to an ice storm warning. Ice accumulations are expected to be a quarter to a half-inch. There could be a sliver of heavier ice especially in portions of Benton, Newton, Jasper, White, Cass, Pulaski, and Fulton Counties where the temperatures will be a little colder. The main treated roads should hold up pretty well but be very careful of secondary roads, bridges, and overpasses. Here will be the main storm impacts.



Remember to be very careful of course if you have to drive. Concerns will continue to be ice accumulations on powerlines and trees. Once ice accumulations approach .50" chances of power outages go way up. The ice can increase the weight on the powerlines by more than 30 to 50 times their normal weight.

The good news is we may see the heaviest freezing rain move out of our area early this afternoon and just be left with drizzle and freezing drizzle. The bad news is that temperatures will stay near 32 and if we are lucky barely make it to 33 degrees. This ice storm could have been a lot worse if our temperatures were in the lower to middle 20s, but we are not out of the woods yet. We have had about .50" of precipitation here at WLFI with .20" of ice. We have one more batch of heavier freezing rain and rain to get through. Here is what it looks like here.


You can see why I am concerned about the trees and powerlines. It is starting to add up. Stay safe and we will continue to do live updates on the air as needed.

Winter Storm Update Includes Rounds of Ice

2:00 a.m. Sunday

Things have changed with the latest radars lighting up like Christmas trees near St. Louis. There are thunderstorms down in Missouri. What this means for us is that a heavier batch of frozen precipitation is possible in the morning hours and an ice storm warning cannot be ruled out. It has been a long time since I have heard thunder during a freezing rain storm but this cannot be ruled out as we all wake up in the morning. I will keep you updated and likely see you soon on the tube. Please be careful! Make sure to check the links below if you have to travel and there are more safety tips if you scroll down just a little.


Here is an important link to Indiana road conditions courtesy of the Indiana State Police:
http://www.in.gov/isp/2657.htm

Here is an important link to Illinois road conditons:
http://www.dot.il.gov/wrc/report2.asp


12:00 a.m. Sunday

Great to check in with you, but I wish it was under better circumstances. I don't think any of us are fans of ice, freezing rain, sleet, freezing drizzle, snizzle (snow and freezing drizzle), but here we go again. This is the second time in as many weeks that nature has brought us an icy mess during our weekend. There are lots of folks shopping, traveling, and in my case going to the TV-18 Christmas party. Don't worry I made sure I ate some prime rib and talked to all the nice folks that absolutely love bringing you the news every night. We all have great pride in the TV-18 family of being your one and only local station. The prime rib was great, but I had to literally eat and run. There was no time for the comedy show this year because nothing is funny about this weather pattern. So here is what you need to know:

I do think the worst part of this ice storm will be north of St. Louis in West-Central Illinois, but we will not be spared an icy mess. The reason for all this trouble is a huge dome of cold air being locked in by high pressure here in the Midwest Parts of Minnesota could be colder than 20 below zero tonight. This means the farther west you go the better chances of a major ice storm. Now farther east here in Indiana we have warm, tropical moisture surging in with the pineapple express or a strong jet stream you can track all the way back to Hawaii. This bad mix or clash of air masses is playing havoc with our weather. While we will not see a devastating ice storm we will have slippery roads develop, especially Sunday morning.

Here is my timeline for most of us: We will have our best chance of icing between 4 a.m. and Noon Sunday. Temperatures should rise into the middle and upper 30s changing the freezing rain and rain over to all rain. Ice accumulations should be less than .20". This is usually not enough to cause power-outages or tree branches to snap. With our temperatures hovering near freezing our main threats will be driving on untreated roads, secondary roads, bridges, and overpasses. Be very careful walking as sidewalks will be more like ice skating rinks.

Fulton, and Pulaski County have an ice storm warning which is issued when more significant ice accumulations are expected. Usually you have to have over a quarter-inch of ice. I am forecasting between .20" and .40" of an inch of ice for these areas which is enough to cause sporadic power outages and small tree limbs to snap. Driving becomes much more difficult and travel is not recommended. The good news is that major ice damage to powerlines and trees usually does not occur until you are close to three-quarters of an inch of ice and I do not see that happening. The worst of the icing should occur in Francesville to Winamac and Rochester between 6 a.m. and 2 p.m. before their temperatures also warm up above freezing.

So please be safe! I do care about you and here are some safety tips you can use if you have to be out and about.

Car and Emergency Supplies:

Cell phone
Portable charger and extra batteries
Shovel Windshield scraper
Battery-powered radio (and extra batteries)
Flashlight (and extra batteries)
Water & Snack food
Extra hats, coats, mittens, blankets, chains or rope
Tire chains, canned compressed air with sealant (emergency tire repair)
Road salt or kitty litter and sand Booster cables
Emergency flares
Bright colored flag; help signs
First aid kit & Tool kit
Road maps & Compass
Waterproof matches and a can (to melt snow for water)
Paper towels

What to Do if You Get Stranded:

Staying in your vehicle when stranded is often the safest choice if winter storms create poor visibility or if roadways are ice covered. These steps will increase your safety when stranded:
Tie a brightly colored cloth to the antenna as a signal to rescuers and raise the hood of the car (if it is not snowing). Move anything you need from the trunk into the passenger area. Wrap your entire body, including your head, in extra clothing, blankets, or newspapers. Stay awake. You will be less vulnerable to cold-related health problems. Run the motor (and heater) for about 10 minutes per hour, opening one window slightly to let in air. Make sure that snow is not blocking the exhaust pipe—this will reduce the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning. As you sit, keep moving your arms and legs to improve your circulation and stay warmer. Do not eat unmelted snow because it will lower your body temperature. Huddle with other people for warmth.

You take care and maybe next time we can just have an old-fashioned snowstorm. I certainly did not order this weather up!

Snowpack Raises Weekend Concerns About Ice

It was not by any means an impressive snow system but once again we were clipped last night with a coating of nature's white gold that has brought more slippery roads across the area. It only takes a little snow to cause big problems so make sure to slow down this morning. Notice most areas in and around Lafayette averaged out to about an inch of snow with 1" of snow measured here at WLFI at 3 a.m. The heaviest band of snow shifted about 15 miles south of Tippecanoe County last night. Talk about a tough call. It becomes even tougher to forecast when it is a weak system to begin with and it is being pushed through our area by a jet stream at well over 100 miles per hour. At one point the snow was moving east at 50 mph. Imagine if it was moving at a more typical speed of 15 to 20 mph. We would be digging out from several inches of snow. But this snow-maker moved too quickly to hamper our backs. Some folks can even use the brooms to brush off the snow off the porch or walkways. If you melt down the snow most areas had less than .10" which comes out to a snow ratio of 15:1. It was more like a Colorado snow which meant it was a light, fluffy snow. This brings us to our blog question of the day.

Hey Mike,

Great news cast tonight!! One question though, what is a 20/1 snow?

Thanks,
Dave

~Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!!!!~

Thanks for the great question Dave. I forecasted a 20/1 snow which is another way of saying we will have a 20 to 1 snow ratio. So exactly what is a snow ratio? Meteorologists use a liquid to snow ratio to forecast snow amounts. Every 1" of rain would equal 10" of snow on average. This is what is called a 10:1 snow ratio or a 10/1 snow. Typically in Indiana every 10 inches of snow yields 1 inch of water when melted down.

But if the atmosphere and ground are very cold like we have seen the last couple days, your snow ratio would go from 10 to 1 to 15 or 20 to 1. This means if your computer models are forecasting .10" of precipitation you would multipy it by 20 to come up with a forecast of 2" of snow. Most areas did not reach 2" of snow last night because our snow ratio was a little closer to 15:1 and our precipitation equivalent was only .07.

So you take the .07" and multiply it by 15 and you come out with 1.05 inches of snow which is what many parts of Tippecanoe County saw last night. The models were all showing about .14" of precipitation over Lafayette but the heavier precipitation shifted just south of us into Montgomery County. So using a snow ratio of 15:1 you can estimate Crawfordsville received about 2.1 inches of snow last night. This is yet another reason why forecasting snow is quite challenging. The storm track and amount of precipitation expected are only a part of the equation.

Speaking of the snowpack you can see how beautiful it looked from space this morning. You can make out Lake Michigan at the top of the picture and the wonderful Wabash River is outlined magnificently in the snow. This snowpack may be beautiful but it could play havoc with our weather this weekend. Earlier in the week it looked like we could melt away much of the snow by late Saturday with warmer temperatures. But with all of the snow we have had this week it has locked in the cold air which means our next system that moves in Saturday night and Sunday will likely begin with a dangerous mix of sleet and freezing rain. I will have more on this tonight. Put away the shovels and brooms, get out the ice scrapers and make sure to have a great day!

No Rest for the Weary, More Snow on the Way Tonight

Keep the snow shovels and golden snow shovels out. We have more snow on the way tonight. I am actually a little sore today after shoveling out our lucky golden snow shovel contest winner's two driveways and sidewalk. You can see the proof that I actually did go out and shovel yesterday. What a workout! I was actually sweating and was out of breath at one point. It is a good reminder to make sure to take frequent breaks while shoveling because only 15 minutes of shoveling is the equivlent of sprinting a mile to the human body. You also want to shovel from the knees and not the back. Push the snow as much as possible instead of lifting heavy amounts. I took a much needed break by making a snow angel. It was one of the better ones I have made as you see below. Yes, this is a heavenly pattern for all meteorologists.



Carlene Linn of Lafayette was our winner. She was one of 20 folks that picked December 5th as the day Lafayette would have the first one inch or more of snow. If I had more time I would have helped shovel all 20 of you out but there is only 24 hours in a day and they would let me only pick one winner. So congratulations to not only Carlene but to all of you that picked December 5th and submitted forecasts. We had over 300 entries in the contest which was way up over last year! I also wanted to thank our sponsor Mad Mushroom Pizza. The owner and I both know it does not get much better than enjoying a good old-fashioned snow with pizza.





You see a picture of the famous shovel. The magical golden snow shovel did a great job as well. It is not how much snow you get, but the shovel you use. This thing cut right through the snow and ice. I may have to put it on the market. It would turn everybody in to snow fans! Speaking of snow shovels, if you are tired you may want to get out the snow blowers. There is no rest for the weary as this active pattern is expected to continue. Here were all the snow totals across the area yesterday along with how much more snow is on the way. Thanks again for making it a special day yesterday! It should be a fun winter.



Our first snow was a beautiful snow and it was a wet snow so it stuck to the trees. It made for a beautiful scene in Attica as Richard Beetle shows us above. Rochester had a little more snow thanks to some lake enhancement. The state's highest snow total was in La Porte where they had 7 inches of snow.



Cindy Lundstrom of Lafayette snapped this picture of our state bird, the Cardinal, huddling in a tree during the snowstorm. This picture belongs in a calendar. Great job Cindy!



Here is our preliminary snow forecast for tonight and early Friday morning. I will zoom in on your hometowns tonight and fine-tune this for you. Check back here on the blog and tune in for more. Thanks for the all the great pictures and keep them coming. Have a great day!