The Flurries Fly on Election Day & Old Man Winter Makes A Return

We certainly have seen much windier days here in Indiana. But it is tough out there today and the wind just goes right through you. A great job to all those that got out and voted and braved this weather. You get two golden stars.This is what we call payback time from nature and it feels so bad because this weather is coming on the heels of our warmest October in 60 years. My dog walk was even cut short today. My dog looked back at me like I was crazy after taking just a few steps outside with him. I guess you can say this weather is not fit for man or beast. The good news is that the wind will ease up tonight as high pressure builds into the area. This will make a world of difference so hang in there another few hours. It not only feels like winter out there today, but it looks like it. Here is what it looked like in my backyard.



Yesterday we talked about this being the darkest time of year and this picture confirms it! Solar winter is here. We call those clouds cold air stratocumulus because they literally form due to a very cold atmosphere. Any heated air quickly rises and cools to its condensation point forming plenty of clouds. These clouds did give way to a few flurries that were confirmed on our Live Doppler 18 not only this afternoon but this evening as you see below.

Our first flakes of snow usually occur in Lafayette right around November 4th, so for once nature actually was on time with something. Otherwise, it has been a bizarre year. Do not expect this to be a permanent thing. You may want to tune in tonight because I have everything in your 7 day forecast ranging from a hard freeze to highs near 70 degrees and possible strong thunderstorms. Let's take it one step at a time. Here is the difference between a freeze and a hard freeze.

Yes, just when you think you heard it all. There are different types of freezes. A hard freeze is also known as a killing freeze that ends the growing season. The good news for campers is that it also kills off all the mosquitoes. Here is one important tidbit we all need to take note of tonight. Make sure to detach all outdoor hoses from the spigots because if you keep them attached it could cause your pipes to freeze. Unfortunately many find this out when they are washing their cars in the Spring. Many homes are literally flooded with water. Remember to also bring in the pets and certainly any plants you will want to save. The good news is we have a nice break in the wind on the way for Wednesday. Do not get too excited! It will not last very long. In this early winter pattern an Alberta Clipper will move our way. I will have more on this tonight and here on the blog tomorrow. Stay warm and stay tuned.

Abbey Topples Competition & Gusty Winds Knock Us Straight into Winter

Here is my daughter Abbey with her first place bear and medals she won over the weekend. If you think those tumbling temperatures outside are impressive you haven't seen anything yet. Abbey makes backflips look as natural as walking to the mailbox. She was certainly born with a lot of talent and athleticism and that great part is that she is putting that talent to good use. We call her the "wild child" in our family. It seems like she has more energy than a category five hurricane. The great news is that she is learning to focus all of that energy into something she really has fun with and loves to do. Abbey competes for the Lafayette Area Gymnastics Club and her team traveled to Greenwood, Indiana to partake in the Turkey Trot Invitational this weekend. Girls from all over the state compete. Abbey is very lucky to have great coaches that work with her almost every day and it certainly showed on Sunday. Abbey made it look easy or effortless out there and as a parent I could not be prouder. No matter what place she finished in I would have been proud, so the awards were just the icing on the cake. The amazing part is that when Abbey gets home from the meets she is ready to do more flips in the yard or unfortunately the living room. I am still trying to steer her away from that second part. But overall she is a great kid. Wonderful job wild child!



Speaking of wild, everybody is asking about our weather today. We have had vicious wind gusts near 35 mph accompany the strongest cold front of the season. Check out the latest winds in Remington, Indiana live thanks to our weatherwatcher Mary Anne Best.

http://maryannes.homeip.net/

I am also tracking snow to our north as you see above on the 3-D fly-thru. Parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan will receive close to a foot of snow. Here at home we have not had any snow in the forecast since April 14th when we had our latest one inch of snow on record since 1961. Now I am not expecting any accumulations so do not hit the panic button. You will be able to get out and vote. Just do not be surprised to see a few spits of snow, especially on Tuesday afternoon. Now a lot of folks have been asking when winter really begins because it is like we have gone straight from summer into winter because 3 out of every 4 autumn days have been above average. This time of year we cannot be surprised by anything as you can see below. Check it out.



Most people do not realize that solar winter begins to day and continues until early January. This is when the sun angle is usually lowest in the sky and we have our darkest days of the year. Today certainly felt like solar winter and it turned dark in a hurry as the front blew through the area this afternoon. Meteorological winter begins December 1st and this is based on weather. Our calendar tells us winter does not officially begin until December 22nd which we all know is a bit laughable. This is because it is based on astronomy. No matter what calendar you choose to follow we all need to bundle up. By morning, temperatures will be in the upper 20s with wind chills near 20. Tomorrow night, a hard freeze is on the way. Tune in tonight and I will tell you why this pattern will likely not last too long. So we will keep our glass half-full or in this case half-iced! Have a great day.

It Will Be A November to Remember for Big Changes

Watch out! Nature may let the dogs out over the next 4 weeks. Snow is back in the forecast next week in the form of flurries. The dog above is anonymous, so I just call him the Blizzard dog since that was when the picture was taken. It has been about 9 months now since our blizzard and the memories are as fresh as the picture above. It was poetic justice for all of us snow-lovers that had very little to cheer about for most of the winter of 2006-07.

Speaking of poems, I have gone poetic on you because nobody gets as excited about snow as I do. We are getting ready for a beautiful sunny weekend so despite the Thomas Hood poem above we will have no-worries this weekend, but it is a reminder that things can change in a hurry now that it is November. You can see the sand hill crane in the picture above next to the poem. We have had many reports of these birds migrating to the south over the past couple of weeks. Their loud honks are telling us something like the poem. In November here in Lafayette we have been as warm as 82 and as cold as -5. That is right we have an 87 degree spread in temperatures and these record highs and lows were set in the same year of 1950 which makes it even more impressive. November can be a scary month. The polar jet stream begins to make a move toward our backyards with some winter air masses while there is still plenty of autumn warmth and moisture trying to hang on. This causes a clash to take place in the atmosphere which can bring severe weather ranging from tornadoes to snowstorms. Basically there is no-doubt our atmosphere is revving up for winter.



This morning it certainly felt like winter with temperatures falling into the upper 20s with a heavy frost. It was only our third freeze compared to our average of 7. This time last year we already had 7 freezes as you can see above. This may be a sign of a new pattern trying to set in. The six to ten day outlook put out by the Climate Prediction Center has us in a below average temperature regime it seems like for the first time since the Blizzard of 2007. I do expect the pig ridge to our southeast that has devoured our autumn to no end to finally be supressed here in November and allow a more dominant ridge of high pressure to develop out West. This should detour a powerful Polar jet stream toward us here in the Midwest with cold spells of weather and even some chances of snow. Take a look at the big change.

The October jet stream was in a position we normally see in late August and September bringing us our third warmest October since 1896 and warmest October in 60 years. But do not expect this to continue and you can see why below.



I do expect temperatures to run about 1 degree below average and would not be surprised to see more than the average one inch of snow we normally see in November. I am not ready just yet to call for a big snowstorm, but it is not out of the question. I have another month of above average precipitation. I see us having about 3.5 inches of rain and snow when you melt it all down with the active jet stream helping to lift the air and bring plenty of mid-latitude cyclones our way. I will keep you updated on Live Doppler 18, but for this weekend at least we have no troubles. It will be sunny and beautiful. Make sure to remember to turn your clocks back one hour before going to bed on Saturday night. This will make it much lighter out in the morning when you wake up, but darker in the evening.

Here are your new sunrise/sunset times on Sunday.

I will have more on this tonight on the news, including friendly fronts sweeping through the area. Have a great weekend and GO COLTS!

A Sugar-Coated Start to November May Turn Bittersweet Next Week

I am still working off sugar at this late hour. The Prangley daughters you see above had a happy Halloween. Megan, the Miss America you see above loves working with numbers like her Dad. So she counted all the candy the sisters gathered last night and it came out to a whopping 230 pieces. The good news is Dad counted the raindrops last night or should I say sprinkles or spits of rain. There were only 3 rain drops which quickly evaporated upon contact. So it was a great evening for everybody in our family. I enjoyed being able to walk with my wife who actually carried our 7 pound dog ( a Cotton) around the block. The funny part is that somebody thought our dog was a costume. So I played along and told them our baby was dressed up as a dog. I saw lots of great costumes, but was worried about a penguin I saw. Even though penguins are not able to fly we had some howling winds that almost blew this penguin away that you see below.



The good news is this penguin did not need to be rescued despite a 31 mph wind gust measured last night in Lafayette! Today as high pressure build in it will be a glorious start to November with seasonable temperatures in the middle to upper 50s and much lighter breezes. Folks were amazed when I told them the reason we were so windy was a big snowstorm that was really winding up in Ontario and Manitoba causing a tight pressure gradient in our area. This snowpack being put down to our north will have a big impact on our weather next week along with a huge arctic air mass building to our north. Take a look at temperatures early this morning.



Temperatures near zero to our north could spell doom for those that do not like cold weather. This heavy, arctic air mass will likely have no place to go but south with a series of cold fronts helping to drag it our way. The strongest cold front of the season should arrive by Tuesday of next week with maybe our first flurries of the season on Wednesday. Talk about our treat of a weather pattern turning into nature's trick, there you have it! I of course am excited about this, especially after looking at some of the latest winter maps. We may have a tough time seeing much in the way of snow or real cold weather, but I need to emphasize that it is still early and these long-range forecasts can change.

On Tuesday, the National Weather Service in Indianapolis held their Winter Weather Awareness Workshop and they were in agreement with the latest Climate Prediction Center maps for winter. Here they are below.











Now this does confirm my warmer and stormier winter than normal I am expecting. Now it is all about timing. I am working on a winter weather outlook that will run on November 13th and 14th on our newscasts and what is interesting is that we will have a decent shot at some snow for the holidays, but unusually warm weather during the usually coldest time of the year for us. Spring will then roll around and winter will make a comeback. I am still putting the finishing touches on this forecast and will have little tidbits leading up to the winter outlook stories I am working on.

Here is winter tidbit number one: If you are dreaming of a White Christmas, your wish may very well come true. But do not oversleep or you may miss out on a winter wonderland.

Nature Gives Us a Treat in the Lafayette Sky in Time for Halloween

A Big Thank You to Bill Snyder!

Hi Mike,

It was taken in my backyard here in West Lafayette. I do a lot of astrophotography in my backyard. I live just on the edge of town so the sky for me is pretty dark except in the south as that looks back towards town.

I don't know if I've ever sent you my web site but if you're interested you can look around at some of my other astrophotography work.

http://web.ics.purdue.edu/~wlsnyder

I just happened to walk in from the telescope and caught the broadcast tonight at 11. I was proud to see my image being used. I am glad you liked it so much!
I saw that big bucket of candy your kids collected. I wonder though who will eat the most, the kids or mom and dad... :-)

After the broadcast I was back out at the telescope taking some more images. I've attached a color image I took with my Nikon camera that I think you will like. The other image I sent you was taken with a specialized camera for astrophotography that is black-and-white. I had to fight the high level thin clouds that were moving in though. They really started to affect the seeing, but if I waited I could get a clear enough spot to snap some pictures.

Enjoy the images and keep your eye on this comet. Who knows what it well do next.

All the best,
Bill

This comet known is doing things never before witnessed by astronomers so I am glad we have Bill keep a close eye on it for us. Bill has a very impressive web-site you can click on as well. Check out the link above. It will certainly be a Happy Halloween after receiving this picture. Comets are also called "dirty snowballs" because they are a mixture of ices (both water and frozen gases) and dust that for some reason didn't get incorporated into planets when the solar system was formed. This makes them very interesting as samples of the early history of the solar system. In 1993, we did not have dirty snowballs in the sky but actually snow flurries reaching the ground. It is hard to believe this year we will be about 30 degrees warmer. Balmy breezes today will help highs rocket up to near 70. This will be nature's exclamation mark on one of Lafayette's warmest Octobers on record. Here is the impressive list we have made.

I want to thank Sam Shea of the Midwest Climate Center for his help. We both checked out the past 111 Octobers and 2007 once again made its mark with unusually warm weather. The interesting part to remember about our weather here in the Midwest is that when we have abnormally warm Octobers, we have a better than 70% chance of a warmer than warmer winter. So I do think this will hold up this year and we will save on our heating bills.

Tonight, trick or treaters will have a nice mild start, but the earlier you can go with the kids the better. We have a sunset at 6:46 p.m. and a cold front will move through by 7 p.m. We will have a few sprinkles but the big story will be the plummeting temperatures. We could drop from 65 degrees at 6 p.m. to 55 degrees by 8 p.m. with ghostly breezes. So get out early and get those treats before nature tries to play a trick on you with the temperatures. Remember we will have way more chocolate and Elmos running around than raindrops, but just bring the umbrellas in case a few light showers and sprinkles pop up. The picture of Lauren was taken last night and she was all ready to go trick or treating. You should have seen her face when we tried to tell her she has to wait another day.

I do not want anybody to be caught out in the rain so make sure to tune in tonight and I will have more on this with Live Doppler 18. There is way too much candy in the Prangley household at this time. So remember when you see me bouncing around on your television screen a little more than I usually do, it is the chocolate. Beware of the weatherman. I have issued a chocolate and werewolf advisory as a result. I will be howling tonight about cooler weather as we head into November. I will also have more details on the winter weather workshop held at the National Weather Service on Tuesday. Do they agree with me on a warmer winter? Do they think we could still see not only big snows but ice storms? The answers will be coming your way here on the weather blog and newscasts. Happy Halloween!

Golden Snow Shovel Contest Has Begun Despite 70s Back in the Forecast

I wanted to thank Mad Mushroom Pizza for once again providing the pizza and being our big sponsor. It was a lot of fun last year and you all know that I already have my snow shovel ready for this year! Our first inch of snow usually does not arrive until late November and early December, but this year could be different. That is the only hint I will give you. Remember the one inch of snow has to accumulate here at WLFI. I am looking at the measuring stick right now with a big smile on my face. So if you are spooked by snow here is your chance to get back at the weatherman. In addition to getting a free large pizza every week of the year with two toppings, I will also shovel your driveway for you. For those that do not know, I absolutely love shoveling snow. This is because of a childhood that included several dozen snowstorms that always seemed to miss Bowie, Maryland by about 40 to 60 miles. It was heartbreaking. At least I cannot make up for some lost time here in my new adopted home in Indiana. Let the contest begin!

We certainly do not have to worry about snow this week with temperatures roaring toward 70 today and tomorrow! What a month it has been for warm weather. We very well may go from summer straight into winter. I will have more on this tonight and of course your Halloween forecast. Right now we still have a chance of spooky showers and a howling wind. Sunset will be at 6:46 p.m. with temperatures falling into the middle to upper 50s by 8 p.m. which is unusually mild for this time of year. I do not see much rain with most areas receiving less than .05" of an inch. I think spooky sprinkles would better describe the trick or treat forecast which still looks more like a treat. My daughters are going as Hannah Montana, Dorothy (from the Wizard of Oz), and maybe a 50s girl. So it is a good thing the weather is cooperating. I do not want to be the grinch for Halloween that is for sure. I could go as partly cloudy with a chance of showers like I did last year. We will have to wait and see.

But just when you thought there was nothing too scary in the forecast, you may want to beware of a fuzzy eerie-looking light in the northeastern sky the next few nights. A special thanks to Purdue professor Van Neie for straightening this out for all of us.

I left you a phone message earlier this evening. In the north sky, below and slightly to the east of the constellation Cassiopeia in the constellation Perseus, is the comet 17P/Holmes. It has recently "exploded" and is visible to the naked eye. However, through binoculars it is a big fuzzy ball, easily seen against the pinpoint stars. More information and pictures can be had at
http://spaceweather.com
Van Neie
Emeritus Prof of Physics Education
Purdue

Since we will be clear once again this evening make sure to take a look at this beautiful sight in the sky. The picture above is what it looked like in Easton, Pennsylvania a few nights ago. It has literally exploded and is a millionfold brighter than it once was and you can see it without a telescope. Scientists are scrambling to find out exactly what happened and have never witnessed this before to this magnitude.The interesting part in this picture is the comet looks like it has eyes. But those eyes are really stars in the background that are being partially covered by the comet's fiery snowball. A special thanks to Van Neie for bringing this beautiful sight in the sky to our attention.

It does look like a Happy Halloween, but it could propel us into the record-books by making it one of the warmest Octobers on record. Where will we stack up and does this usually mean we will have a mild winter or a cold and snowy winter? I will have more answers here on the weather blog tomorrow and tell you more about what went on at the National Weather Service Winter Workshop today. Thanks for reading and see you soon!

A Happy Homecoming & Finish to October

It may have been a cloudy day, but as expected it did not rain and my daughters and wife above all had a great time at Ross-Ade Stadium! One of the many reasons that this is a great place to live are these wonderful autumn weekends full of great Big Ten football. It was a Happy Homecoming that included Neal Armstrong on hand to help lead the "You Make Me Want to Shout" song at the end of the 3rd quarter. It is not every day that you can say you got to hang out at the stadium and sing with the first man on the moon. To cap off a great afternoon, I had all of my girls with me as you can see. They are on "fall break" and I think they really enjoyed staying in town and going to the game. Their favorite part of the experience was of course the famous Purdue Marching band.



The World's Largest Drum made its way into the stadium with about 500 alumni from the Purdue Marching Band. It was a sight to behold. The alumni band included our very own videographer from TV-18, Nathan Caldwell. They certainly had us "rocking around the clock" at halftime and would have made the Comets proud. The icing on the cake was that Purdue came back to win 35-17 over Northwestern scoring the last 21 points of the game in the last two quarters. They are not just "bowl eligible". The question is will the Boilers be playing on New Year's Day. I think if they win 2 of their last 3 games, they without question should expect to bring in New Year's Day with a big bowl victory.


Thanks to: Elizabeth Johnston

Here is what it looked like in Flora over the weekend. It looked like it snowed overnight. Of course it did not, but that was some thick frost. We had our first frost and freeze of the season as forecast both Saturday and Sunday nights. It came 15 days later than last year. It was not too far away from the all-time latest freeze on record in Lafayette which was set on November 13, 1946. This time of year is known for its ups and downs so it does look like things will in fact rebound very quickly. Make sure to tune in for this tonight and I will tell you why "lifeguard" costumes will be in this year for Halloween.

Blog Question of the Day: When is our first chance of snow?

It still does look like our first snow will be the second week of November. Now I am not guaranteeing any accumulations at this point, but I do expect our first snowflake sightings between November 9th and 12th with a huge dip in the polar jet stream moving our way. Temperatures in Canada are falling quickly with our shorter days and it is helping a mighty hefty polar air mass to build. So you may want to enjoy our highs near 70 the next couple of days while you can. We will also take a close look at your trick or treat forecast tomorrow on the blog and a golden shovel contest you will not want to miss on wlfi.com.