July sunshine washed away in rain

Saturday, July 16, 2011

What happened to your July sunshine? It is on the way but we have to wait for a stationary front to meander south of the area. Since it is living up to its name it will likely not clear the area until Monday. This will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for at least the next couple days. But be careful what you wish for.

Sunshine will return with scorching heat by the middle of next week with highs well into the 90s and it will feel like 105-110. The tropics are still quiet with only a 20% chance of the low pressure off the Florida coast developing. It will likely wrap in dry air from the north and weaken over central Florida early next week.

I will be back to post some pictures and forecast maps tonight! Thanks for your patience!

Thunderheads snuff more wildfires and warning signs in the tropics

Sunday, July 11, 2011


We have come a long way in about three weeks when we had about 180 fires in a 50 mile radius of Jacksonville. Florida was literally on fire as you can see above. It was so bad folks could not even get out to the pool and some walked their cats and dogs indoors at the nearest pet shopping center and even in their homes. Now compare that to the map below this morning!

We can breathe much easier with only 29 wildfires reported across the area. The air is thick, hazy, and hot today but most of us our smoke-free with the exception of areas near Waycross and the Okefenokee Swamp. Your glasses fog up when you go outside and it feels like a steam bath but it is much easier to take than the stranglehold the smoke had over the area. You can thank those afternoon soakers that have been moving through and we are not done yet! Today we have another friendly front moving our way. It is unusual to have a cold front hold together this far south. Fronts usually stall out in the Carolinas this time of year but over the next couple of days what is left of this front will slowly washout over our area helping to snuff out more wildfires.

This front will be a triggering mechanism to help fire up some showers and thunderstorms. Looking at the atmospheric profile this morning I still do not think it is a good set-up for severe weather. The temperatures in nature's attic are heating up which will not allow the thunderstorms to build too high. There could be a few tops near 35,000 feet but not much higher. By thunderstorm standards in Florida that is quite small and really we would classify these thunderstorms as weaker thundershowers.

The severe storms that swept through a couple weeks ago had tops near 50,000 feet with some cooler air to work with. I do not see that happening today. Remember the taller the thunderstorm the better chance of severe weather.

But do not let your guard down on the roadways. Yesterday we had numerous issues on highway 301 in Bryceville with two inches of rain in an hour. Kingsland, Georgia had a quick inch of rain with many reports of accidents. Today once again the big threat will be heavy downpours and some flood advisories like we saw yesterday. The storms will move from the northwest and drift southeast. Do not be surprised once again if some areas pick up 2 weeks worth of rain in 2 hours. Most of the activity will be this afternoon, although this morning a few storms could pop in nature's soup.

As always lightning will be a threat like we saw yesterday although again with warmer air aloft it will hold down the number of ice crystal collisions in the cloud. But just one bolt of lightning can change your life and this brings us to the weather question of the day. When is it safe to go swimming after a storm passes. Did you guess 30 minutes? Why and what if you have an indoor swimming pool? Is it safe to swim? Nancy wrote me with this question and here was my response.

If you have a large indoor pool it should be treated like an outdoor pool when it comes to lightning safety. Lightning travels from the ground up and loves to travel through plumbing. So I advice folks not to take showers, baths, wash dishes, and this includes indoor swimming.

When you see or hear the first rumble of thunder you will want to clear the pool and then wait 30 minutes after the storm has passed before going back in the water since lightning travels up to 10 miles outside the main cumulonimbus cloud.

If you count to 10 seconds after seeing the flash of lightning to when you hear the thunder roar this means the storm is two miles away. You always divide the time from the bright flash to nature’s rumbling roar by two. This tells you how close the lightning strike was to you. The 30 minute rule ensures the main storm is more than 10  miles away which means you can safely swim indoors and outdoors!

This was a great question and please keep sending them in! My e-mail is mprangley@firstcoastnews.com. Thanks ahead of time. I love this stuff especially since it can really make a difference in keeping people safe!

Yes, we will have some good swimming weather today but remember the earlier the better and remember not to wait to get out of the pool or ocean. When the thunder roars head indoors and if you see it flee it! Most people are struck by lightning when it is not raining. Also remember that convertible cars even with the roof up offer no protection from lightning. Today you want to leave the convertibles home. What happens is the metal shell of your car protects you from lightning in what is called the bird cage efffect. If you do not have that  metal above your head you are putting yourself in danger. Cars are safe during thunderstorms but convertibles are not, that is the bottom line.

 

Make sure to join me tonight and I will track more storms with you and talk about another unusual summer front coming our way by late week that will once again increase our rain chances. But this one may need to be watched a little closer because sometimes you can get tropical development along these stalled frontal boundaries with the right ingredients. Today's front is in an unfavorable sheared environment as you can see above. But this can change in a hurry now that we are getting later in July.

Today is the actual 15th anniversary of Bertha bringing in big surf and deadly rip currents to Jacksonville Beach where one person drowned. It luckily stayed just off the Florida coast. But Wilmington was not so lucky where it hit with 100 mph winds. This is a good reminder to prepare now! It does still look like a busy season. Not just because we have near record warmth in the Atlantic Ocean but take a look at this graph!

The latest long-range computer models that tried to kill off the La Nina were in fact wrong. It looks like we will have a strengthening La Nina for the rest of the summer and thus less wind shear and a more favorable environment for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. Make sure prepare and the good news is that your First Coast News Hurricane Tracking charts are now available at area Mc Donald's! It includes your all-important safety checklists and even what to do with your pets. I think you will enjoy it and find it most informative. You have a great day. I better get to church so I can get back and track more Florida storms with you this afternoon! Take care.

Jamaica express brings more rain and less drought worries!

Saturday, July 9, 2011

Happy weekend! Our weather saying is don't worry, be happy! I know the rain will put a damper on some of those outdoor plans but we really need the rain. The good news is is that it will not be an all-day rain but I do think most of us will see rain this afternoon into at least early this evening. It is not every day we track four weather-makers or in this case rain-makers but here they are front and center.

There is the anti-cyclonic flow coming from the high pressure in the Bahamas, cyclonic flow from our Louisiana low, a frontal system moving south from Georgia and "what could have been Bret" that is now moving into North Florida from the Apalachee Bay. That is right, the tropical wave we have been tracking all week tried to develop but the winds aloft were too strong and tore it apart. Now that it is moving over land it will not be a named system but at least it will help our rainfall. Thank you tropics! That is a lot of available lift and moisture. If you look at the precipitable water (PW values) from the ground to jet stream level it is at an astounding 2.3"! This is something you usually see over the Keys, or even in Jamaica not in Jacksonville. This is why I am calling this the "Jamaican Express". This is where our weather is moving from and it is looking anf feeling more like Jamaica today. Take a look at the PW bulls eye over us on this Saturday.

The PW is actually the measure of how much rain would accumulate on the surface if all the moisture in a vertical column of air is squeezed out from the surface to 36,000 feet. Since we have moisture advection and wind movement a PW of 2.3" over Jacksonville does not mean that is the maximum amount of rain we could receive, but it does tell us there is a ton of water in the atmosphere and it will not take much to set off shower and thunderstorm activity. Heck a PW value of 1.8" is really all we need this time of year for a good chance of rain with a hint of instability. Today we have taken our PW's to the limits of the troposphere. At least we do need the rain. Here is our drought update!

Yes, we have had heavy rains over much of the area the last few weeks but we still have a long way to go. An extreme drought continues from Interstate 10 northward which  means 12" or more of rain is necessary to officially break the drought for good. South of interstate 10 there is a moderate drought with about 8" of rain still needed. Total rainfall for the year in Jacksonville is running about 2 inches below average and 20 inches below since the start of last year. This should make today's rain much easier to take. The latest 16 day rainfall for Jacksonville is coming in above average with 3 to 5 inches of rain! The original forecast I made way back in the middle of June for above average July rainfall still holds.

We will have to watch the tropics carefully and we have another strong tropical wave that could reach the Gulf of Mexico next weekend with perhaps an environment a little more favorable for development. But for now it is all about the rain and areas that have been missed over the last couple of days like Brunswick, Saint Simons Island, Kingland, Fernandina Beach, Lake City and portions of St. Johns County will get in on at least 1 to 2 inches of rain this weekend. If you get under a thunderstorm or two those totals will be closer to 2 to 4 inches by the end of the weekend. If you have plans remember the earlier the better both days. Sunshine will be limited and it looks like this huge slug of moisture over us will linger through at least Monday with drier air moving in Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. It will turn hot as well with less rain. Highs will reach the middle to upper 90s and it will feel like 105-110. But our next front from the north will move south and more tropical moisture will move in by late week. One other good thing about getting this needed rain is we will not be sweltering hot like the rest of the country. We will be one of the few places with temperatures near to slightly below normal through the end of July.

Have a great day and I will see you tonight. We will talk more about this wet and wild pattern taking hold here in Florida and I will have the latest rainfall totals along with your only Live Doppler Radar! I will see you soon.

Happy Fourth of July! Hot Dogs, Apple Pie and a Beautiful Blue Sky!

I better not forget the snow cones! They go well with the sunshine as Cassidy and Cam show us! Thanks Lynn for sending in pictures from the Keystone Heights parade where the weather was perfect and folks were enjoying fine music and honoring those that served and are serving our country. We certainly would not be able to enjoy all this free sunshine without our military! A big thank you. Most people do not realize that our Founding Fathers were fascinated by the weather and really our country's first meteorologists. There are several weather archives you can find from 1776 thanks to them being weather geeks like me! On July 2, 1776 during the heat of the debate when Continental Congress was voting to ratify the Declaration of Independence a cold front likely moved through providing relief from the relentless heat. I think this helped them stay focused and sure enough it was ratified. By July 4th Independence was officially adopted and declared and Jefferson noted that it was comfortable with temperatures in the 70s thanks to a north wind. The rest is history! Two-hundred thirty five years later we have a lot to be proud of!

Enjoy the nice weather for one more day. I will be back to talk about rain on the increase especially by late week. But for now it is all about being thankful with friends and family.

Dog days begin with more bark than bite! The heat holds off for one more day!

Sunday, July 3, 2011

Today is a big day for meteorologists! Well it is not as big as Ground Hog Day to me and I am not going out to dinner to celebrate, but it is the official beginning of the dog days of summer. You see some of St. Augustine's finest dogs above! They need to be in a movie! Most do not realize that the dog days are not named for man's best friend but the dog star Sirius that rises in the East this time of year close to sunrise. Since it coincides with usually the hottest weather of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, the dog days are equated with hot and sultry weather. The dog days officially last through August 11th.

Biscuit, Crouton, and Bijoux are celebrating in style today and they even have water bowls full of ice to chew on. This is a good reminder to remember to have a cool spot for your pets this time of year since our average temperatures here in Jacksonville are in the lower 90s but if you factor in the humidity it feels like it is 100 on most of our dog days and that is when nature is behaving according to plan which doesn't happen too often anymore.

But for today there is more bark than bite to our dog day weather with one more day of comfortable humidity with highs ranging from the middle to upper 80s at the beaches to near 90 inland. This morning we had a low of 67 which was only 4 degrees shy of our record low. Cecil Field dropped to 63! Wow you do not see that often in July! Thank you dry air and it was nice to see our forecast of good sleeping weather confirmed! Jacksonville International has had two consecutive days of 80 degree weather to start July after recording 90 degree weather on 18 of the last 19 June days! It has been a nice break! Today we may briefly nip 90 at the airport but it will be a close call with still many areas east of I-95 remaining in the 80s!

But do not get used to it! The heat, humidity and storms are never far from home this time of year and we do have the humidity making a comeback. You will notice it a bit on the Fourth of July and really start to feel it by Tuesday as it will feel like 100 once again. With the increasing humidity we could pop a storm. But it looks like man made fireworks will trump nature's fireworks this year including tonight's display in Green Cove Springs!

The latest Futurecast is showing a few areas of green mainly along the Interstate 75 corridor. But even for folks in Lake City it will not ruin your plans to celebrate the red, white, and blue! What is interesting is that we are now tracking a tropical wave that will act to enhance our rain by the middle of the week. It currently is near Hispaniola. After checking the latest shear maps I am not expecting a named system but it is a vigorous tropical wave over very warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures and it should hold together enough to once again help our drought conditions. The highlighted bright areas show you where the atmosphere is conducive for tropical development while the blue areas show unfavorable regions for developing. It looks like our wave stays too far north to really get into that zone where we could talk about it organizing into anything significant.

This should bring us a nice swell for surfers by Wednesday with possible surf of 2 to 4 feet. This is long overdue especially after the dismal conditions of the past couple weeks with the west wind. But the rest of this weekend will be a little better with a surf near 2 feet. Boating looks terrific today. You can crank the Bruce Springsteen and enjoy the light inland chop. If you are taking the boat out for deep sea fishing friendly seas will be at 2 to 3 feet!

There is a low tide late this afternoon and remember swimmers even though it is a beautiful beach day, rip currents will be an issue with more of an onshore flow. Make sure to be alert, stay calm, and break the rip of the grip by swimming parallel to shore!

The blog question deals with just how big our June swoon was! What a turnaround. In only one week much of our area went from extreme drought in the deep red to a moderate drought as of yesterday. Take a look at the huge difference between the two maps below. Keep in mind burn bans are still in effect in most of the area. But we can truly enjoy this nice holiday weekend weather after looking at this!

Only Baker County is now in the deep red or extreme drought conditions and even though this index does not cover southeast Georgia. Conditions have also been downgraded to a moderate drought over much of the area. We are still living on the edge and remember burn bans are still in effect as a result. I am working on your July rainfall and temperature maps. I still agree with the Climate Prediction Center is on target with their forecast of improving drought conditions this summer. Now we can really crank Bruce!!! I will see you tonight at 6, 6:30, and 11 and we will talk more about the tropical wave, surf, and rain returning to your forecast by the middle of next week. See you soon. Until then take care and be safe!

Splendid Saturday in the Park Before the 4th of July!

Saturday, July 2, 2011

Lauren tells the weather story nicely for us this weekend. It will bring plenty of smiles and splendid sparkling sunshine to go with the sparklers. It will be the first time this summer nobody has any rain in our entire viewing area.  Our rain streak stops at 11. Yes, I have been waiting a long time for this day... I have the Chicago song, Saturday in the Park, stuck in my head for good reason. Here is why it is our weather song of the day.

People talking, really smiling, a man playing guitar, selling ice cream, and singing for us all as high pressure moves in at the surface and aloft. Keystone Heights is really getting into the spirit of our weather tune with their 4th of July in the Park days taking place today, culminating with a fireworks display on Sunday. We not only have the best weather in Florida today but in the entire country. The old front that sparked our storms yesterday will linger into central and south Florida the next couple days. They will be the ones worrying about having more clouds and scattered storms. Much of the country is sizzling and still recovering from flooding. The desert southwest could hit 120 today with much of tornado alley in the heartland being ravaged not by wind but road-buckling 100 degree heat.

Speaking of which I am still calling this weekend bonus weather because we will have comfortable humidity levels by Florida standards and refreshing sea breezes to enjoy! Temperatures east of Interstate 95 will likely not even hit 90 which does not happen often in July along with no real heat index to worry about with lower dewpoints! Yes, a real celebration of weather and freedom. If you are heading to Daytona for the big race tonight the thunderous roar of cars can be expected instead of nature's usual thunderous rain delays. Expect partly cloudy skies with temperatures not far from 80.

Orange Park will be enjoying a nice fireworks display tonight under the stars and stripes at their Freedom Festival.

There is also the street dance going on in Keystone Heights tonight at 7 p.m. The question is when will nature's fireworks return. Here is your updated Futurecast. We should be okay through Sunday with rain chances at 5% or less. But Monday I think a few isolated locations could see a quick shower or storm.

This is way overdone but I would not be surprised to see a fleeting shower or storm mainly from Marion County south and westward as the tropical air from the south starts to slowly  move back northward. It should not ruin any of your plans! You take care and have a wonderful weekend. I will make sure to check back with you here on the blog with what you can expect the rest of July! Will the drought continue to improve? Also I appreciate you tuning in! We have our normal shows this weekend including the 7 a.m. Good Morning Jacksonville Sunday. Have fun and be safe!

Silver lining in the rain clouds in time for the 4th of July weekend

This is what it looked like at Riverside last night after another round of storms passed through the area. Thanks Athena Masson. These are called mammatus clouds that were left over from the cumulonimbus clouds that dropped a quick 2 to 3 inches of rain in the downtown area with 3.5 inches of rain for Roosevelt Boulevard. This bubbly atmosphere is showing signs of finally stabilizing as drier air works into Georgia and the First Coast for the weekend. We are due for a silver lining in the clouds as we have had rain on Live Doppler Radar at least somewhere in the viewing area every single day this summer.

Nature came through for us big time and even gave us the thumbs up yesterday before the storms hit Palatka. Right back at you nature because I just checked out the monthly rainfall and most of the area ended up with impressive amounts. Jacksonville International had just over six inches with the stormiest month since last August! Darien, Georgia was our bread winner with 12" of rain!! Bunnell in Flagler County was singing in the rain. I would be too if I received 10" of rain!  Hilliard and Callahan did very well as they were in the 7 to 8 inch range. St. Marys and Kingsland Georgia were dancing in 3 to 4 inches of rain! Waycross was close to 6 inches while the Okefenokee Swamp checked in with an average of 7 inches while Espanola was close to 8 inches. What a change!! The beaches mainly had between 2 and 3 inches of rain which was closer to normal. Downtown St. Augustine ended up with 4 inches.


This weekend will dry out with high pressure moving but this is not another prolonged dry spell that will make our drought any worse. I still expect improving conditions through July with plenty of showers and thunderstorms. This weekend we have what I call bonus weather.  Not only will it be sunny but we will have fresh breezes off the ocean and low humidity for this time of year. Our next good chance of rain will hold off until at least the middle and latter part of next week. Get out and enjoy! I will keep you updated throughout your holiday weekend!