Sunshine State turns Cloudy with Storms Firing up South of Jacksonville

Saturday, June 25, 2011

What an unusual sight in the sky this morning! There were stratus clouds. Florida is not living up to its Sunshine State name but I am not complaining because I did not have any reports of smoke to share on Good Morning Jacksonville. Air quality for Jacksonville was actually in the good range! There still may be a few spots downwind of the bigger fires in southeast Georgia and Nassau County with some smoke issues but it will be nothing compared to what we have gone through the past couple weeks! Visibilities should remain above 5 miles and not fall to less than 1/4 miles! We can breathe again! I actually got my first summer run in outside thanks to the nice change in the pattern. I will never take breathing fresh air again for granted. Today for the first time in two weeks nature will help us with another issue, the heat! Many areas will only have highs in the upper 80s all the way to the beaches!

The stratus clouds out our window were formed from a plume of  moisture we can trace all the way back to the Pacific Ocean this morning and the amazing part is that this moisture was part of what once was called Tropical Storm Beatriz. In the Atlantic we still have not had any named storms yet and I think the area to watch over the next week will once again be in the Pacific. There is a tropical low that I am tracking near Belize this weekend but I have this system staying near land and moving into Mexico next week due to a strong area of high pressure to the north in Texas. So Arlene which will be the first named storm this year in the Atlantic will likely not be forming or knocking on anybody's door anytime soon. Unfortunately I do not see us getting any more help from the tropics this coming up week but things can change in a hurry and I do think the tropics will be more a friend to us than foe as the season goes along. This week we can thank a Midwest front for tapping some of what was left with Beatriz and today I think we will see more clouds than sunshine. Scattered showers and storms will pop this afternoon but do not cancel plans. The rain will only impact about 20% to 40% of the area. Here is the latest breakdown for you.

Unfortunately if we are going to get out of the drought the strong storms come as part of the package. We have had some severe weather to go along with our rain but today I see a more stable atmosphere here close to home due in large part to all those unfamiliar clouds. We may still see a few wind gusts near 45 mph and small hail due to colder air aloft. But nothing too bad. Here is a shot of wind damage that hit the west side of town and western portions of Duval County on Thursday.

This looks more like a scene from the Hoosier state of Indiana not Florida but it goes to show you that you do not need tornadoes to have signficant damage. Wet microburst or strong gushes of air from the top of 50,000 foot thunderstorms can gain a lot of momentum by time they reach the ground causing a lot of damage. Here are the latest Futurecast graphics supporting me. Notice I do not see the bright reflectivities that are indicative of strong storms for our Saturday.

Look to the north and northwest today that is where our rain is moving from and it will drift south and southeast. I think most of the rain should be south of our entire area by 8 p.m. Keystone Heights is asking for more rain and I do think that would be an area with at least better chances to see a nice soaking storm this afternoon. The farther south you go the better chances of rain. You can see it is the time of year where rainfall amounts can vary in a big way. This is normal and it usually evens out over the long-haul.

Notice it is the story of the haves and have nots. The 48 hour rainfall shows some bare patches with .10" or less for areas of Columbia, Baker, Bradford and Union Counties. The good news the heaviest rain we have had has been over the Okefenokee Swamp and the Espanola fires with some spots reporting between 3 to 5 inches of rain since Wednesday! In Jacksonville I know a lot of folks in Julington Creek, Mandarin and even Orange Park are wondering where their heavier rain has been. You see the heaviest of rain has stayed from downtown Jacksonville northward into Georgia. The beaches have done well with an average of .50" to 1" of rain.

This is a start and at least the ground is not as tender dry so that when we do get these thunderstorms they will produce more rain than new wildfires. The fire count should continue to fall. I wish we all lived at the airport. Jacksonville International Airport is now reporing 5.08" of rain compared to the monthly normal of 4.23". This would be the first month with above average rainfall since February! AMEN! If you have missed out on the rain do not panic. I see another 2 to 4 inches over us coming the next couple weeks which is still above average. Keep those umbrellas handy. Have a great weekend and make sure to check out our free weather app you can download by searching FCN WX! I will do several video updates for you to keep you updated on the storms, you can also get your exclusive local 10 day forecast I update every morning and evening as needed, and most importantly your 2 minute advantage to keep you ahead of the storms.

Your only Live Doppler Radar sure came through big time this week. You can see why with this amazing storm picture taken yesterday in St. Augustine. Thank you Athena Masson! Remember warnings are not issued with lightning and if you hear the thunder roar outdoors head indoors. Also wait 30 minutes after hearing the last clap of thunder before going back outside. Stay safe and have a great day!

Jacksonville Electrified! More strong storms on the way!

Friday, June 24, 2011

More welcome rain is on the way! The atmosphere is still juiced up and full of plenty of moisture to work with. Showers and thunderstorms will re-develop by mid to late afternoon for most of us. While we are excited about the rain remember your lightning safety rules and like yesterday a few storms will go severe with some isolated wind gusts near 60 mph. Highs will be in the lower 90s and like yesterday the storms will move from in from the south and west.

We have scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend but I would not cancel plans. Rain coverage will not be as widespread and no all day rains are expected with most of the rain in the middle and later part of the afternoon. It will be hot and humid with highs back in the middle 90s.

Longest and smokiest day of the year, but winds of change on the way!

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

It officially is the summer solstice today and our longest day of the year with a sunrise of 6:25 a.m. and sunset of 8:32 p.m. This is due to the sun's most direct rays of the year shining on the northern hemisphere due to the tilt of the earth. The southern hemisphere is celebrating the first day of winter and their shortest day of the year. I think what we will remember most about solstice 2011 is the incredible smoke around the area that was as thick as fog and required dense smoke advisories to be issued as visibilities fell to a quarter-mile.  I shot this picture while out at the beaches and you would think it is our first day of winter. It was a ghost town and felt like you were in a smoke-globe and it looked like a snow-globe at times but instead of snow, ash was falling from the sky! The picture is also dark because the sun was obscured. Our longest day usually brings the brightest sun rays of the year but not today, not even close!

The good news is that it will not be this smoky again, this year, hopefully never again. This is miserable. The pattern change I have been touting is on the way and the upper-flow is changing so that on the first full day of summer tomorrow the smoke will be thickest in Georgia but likely not as bad as today. By Friday I think our entire viewing area will really notice that nature's choke-hold on us will be all but history with increasing south to southwest breezes and more numerous storms to clean up the atmosphere. It could not come soon enough. Here is the Intracoastal Bridge that looks more like London Bridge.

It is another picture that looks more like nightfall is upon us rather than high noon when it was taken! Amazing! There will still be some lowered visibilities tonight even with the sea breeze moving in from the east because the smoke blew all the way out to the Gulf Stream. So improvements are blowing in with the wind but they will be slow improvements. Here is the visible satellite picture that shows the veil of smoke from space.

One thing to note on this beautiful shot is the two seabreezes that will bring isolated storms this evening inland. Look closely and notice the clouds in the Alabama, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle this is heralding the pattern change. There is an unusually strong front right now in the Midwest that is moving south and it will shake this pattern to its core and the choking high pressure will skidaddle as it is no match for this front. I am concerned about more tornadoes and severe weather breaking out in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana. Here is a picture of some of the interesting clouds from our friends in Indiana.

This is a classic shelf cloud that clobbered Lafayette, Indiana. It brought wind and turned the Sagamore Parkway into a river. Yes, this front means business and is unsually strong for this time of year. There have been about 500 storm reports including about 4 dozen tornadoes including one reported near Fond Du Lac, Wisconsin. Here in Florida we will have to be on guard for strong storms as well as cooler temperatures aloft settle in by Friday into next week. I am thinking parts of our area could see at least some scattered rain every single day for the next 7 to 10 days. This is what helped us out of the 1998 wildfire debacle. We had 21 of 31 days of rain in jacksonville in July. This year we could easily pull it off again. Bring it on nature!

Scorching, dry finish to Spring but a new season will bring a new pattern!

Monday, June 20, 2011

Here is the latest visible satellite imagery and once again it is easy to pick up the smoke in southeast Georgia and Nassau County. Today a west wind will keep these areas in the smoke and the rest of us in the scorching hot weather. But we have come a long way in just about a week. After having only 4 days with rain in the previous 41 days, we have had 4 of the last 8 days bring some needed rain. This has helped with the smoke situation. Take a look at how far we have come in just about a week. Here is the visible satellite picture taken last Wednesday. The smoky ash plume covered much of the area and I had to put on my smoke mask downtown.

Some of the ash was as big as wet snowflakes and hot to the touch. My car had a dusting of ash accumulation. It was hard to breathe for everybody not just those with respiratory problems. Here I am at First Coast News trying to breathe.

Today it is much easier to breathe but if you are in southeast Georgia and Nassau County the air quality will be unhealthy at times and in the moderate range for the rest of us as over 140 wildfires continue to burn in and around our viewing area. So we need a real change and I still think it is on the way. Summer officially begins Tuesday at 1:16 p.m. and while it will be hard to find any rain anywhere close to home the latest long-range models are still showing much better chances of rain by late this week. Here are a couple maps showing us ringing in the new season and ringing out the rain!

Pressures have been low and there has been plenty of rain north and south of Florida during the Spring season but an area of high pressure has blocked it from reaching us. Finally this high pressure is weakening and splitting up. A more typical Bermuda high takes hold of our area and with a clock-wise flow around it a nice rich, moist flow from the tropics will ensue!

I think we will all start taking notice of this change by late in the week and our temperatures near 100 will all be a thing of the past as well with more clouds and rain. I will be able to get in front of the Live Doppler Radar again and talk about showers and storms breaking out rather than more wildfires! Here is your 10 day forecast available on our free weather app! This app is also the only one in town with your only live doppler radar and plenty of local weather updates from your local weather channel at First Coast News. I must have updated it 10 times on Saturday. That is the service you deserve!

Ahhhhh, this makes it much easier to take today's heat and smoke! Let's go nature! Now back to my kids. I am officially off today but this update was well worth it! Be safe and stay cool!

A Sizzling Frizzlin' Father's Day! More smoke than rain today

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Happy Father's Day! I want to take time to thank my three daughters for being my true inspiration and every day is Father's Day for me, because they are gifts from God and I know just how lucky I am. I also wanted to thank my Dad for always being there for me. I would not be doing weather without him. After all I remember him teaching me about clouds while flying our kite when I was just three years old. Talk about a huge day! Today is my Mom's birthday as well and I look forward to celebrating with Mom and Dad over a nice big dinner. Thank you Mom for taking me to the library every week when I was growing up just so I could read another weather book. It is the little things in life that really do add up in a big way and I am very thankful!

Now is nature going to show us some love today? Well the weather word of the day is frizzle. That is the sound you hear when bacon is sizzling on a skillet. We are going to be in nature's frying pan and unfortunately it will get a bit smoky again especially from areas of northern Duval County, Nassau County and south Georgia. There will also be smoke along the beaches although not as thick. Inland areas of Putnam County including the Keystone Heights area will also see an increase in the smoke. Notice on the map above that drier air moves in as depicted by the orange "frizzle" bubble. Any storms that do form today will be isolated and confined to areas from Putnam and Marion County southward. Here is the latest Air Quality forecast for today.

Unfortunately smoke will continue to be a problem this week with over 150 wildfires still burning. It will likely get worse before it gets better with the unhealthy area spreading southward by late Monday and especially Tuesday with more of a west northwest flow around an area of high pressure building in. Sea breezes will be weak and not move in until late day.

It will also be dry. You can also expect heat advisories that are in effect today for portions of Georgia and South Carolina to possibly be issued on the First Coast this week as heat indices reach 105-112 here at home with actual highs near 100 through Wednesday. Here are some notes to get you ready for summer!

The summer solstice officially begins Tuesday at 1:16 p.m. and it will feel like it! This picture gives you a hint that today will be a great day to take Dad out on a cool boat ride. Seas will only be at 2-3 feet with a south wind this afternoon at 10-15 kts. Surf looks flat to a foot with a light inland chop. The boat, pool, and ocean will be the places to beat the heat over the next several days. It will be our hottest start to summer since 1990! The drought and wildfires will also be our big stories as we head into summer and here is the latest assessment from the Climate Prediction Center!

This map shows us painted in green which mean improving conditions. This matches my forecast very well. Nature is showing some love!! Unfortunately for Texas it is not looking very good as the center of high pressure sits over the Lone Star State. Here in Florida we will be dominated by a more moist flow out of the south and southeast with Bermuda High pressure in control. This is something we did not see last summer when the drought really took hold. Speaking of the drought. Just how much rain will it take to finally get rid of it?

It will take a lot! Right now we need a good 10 to 15 inches of rain as you can see above. Poor Miami needs almost two feet of rain. Now I did check some historical records. In 1998 we did flip to a pattern that had rain on 21 of 31 days in July and a tropical system brought nice rains in September. This year I am expecting a similar flip and I feel that it has already begun. So we need to stay patient. Not only is positive thinking on our side but SCIENCE. The one concern I do have is even though we would all love a tropical system to bring us rain I am worried about South Florida. Their hurricane chances go through the roof after having dry Spring weather. The 16% chance of a hurricane South Florida has every year goes up to about 50% in this type of situation. So while nature may turn on the rain spigots I will keep my fingers crossed that we can get some of that needed rain from the tropics without a devastating storm. Make sure to check back here on the blog tomorrow and we will be tracking tropical moisture that will once again increase our rain chances in a big way by late week with highs finally back down where they belong. But for now it is all about Dad and patience. Have a wonderful Father's Day!

Heaviest rain in St. Augustine since February! More on the way!

Saturday, June 18, 2011

The fire numbers are staggering and we are not out of the smoky woods by any stretch of the imagination but at least we seeing our thunderstorm season really start to kick in. We have had more rain in just 5 days than the previous 6 weeks and an unheard of rain surplus has developed for the month. There are a few locations that have seen much less than rain which usually is the case here in Florida this time of year. The Okefenokee Swamp has had less than .25" or rain while areas to its east and north have had a whopping 2 to 4 inches of rain. Does smoke in fact have the ability to stabilize the atmosphere at times by blocking out enough sunlight causing it to rain much less over the fire? Absolutely. The smoke also holds down high temperatures and increases low temperatures.

The big news was yesterday was out of St. Johns County that is battling 24 wildfires! St. Augustine had its heaviest one day rainfall total yesterday since February 7th with a quenching 1.54" of rain! Folks were dancing in the street celebrating the rain more than Friday night! St. Marys was thrilled it had 1.5" of rain the last 5 days while Brunswick and Saint Simons Island were very content with 2 inches of rain. I found one spot near Nahunta, Georgia with close to 4 inches! Yes!!

In Florida a good 1 to 2 inch average takes up much of our area although areas of central Putnam County have had closer to .25" of rain. The beaches are in the .50" to 1" range with more for Vilano Beach southward including over 3 inches in Palm Coast. Orange Park, Mandarin, and Julington Creek all average out close to 1.25" while Hilliard and Callahan farther north are ecstatic with their 3" of rain. Yulee has had between 1.5 to 2" while Macclenny and Woodbine checked in with a more tame .50" of rain. Our average rainfall over a five day period this time of year ranges from .70" to .90" of an inch of liquid sunshine. So we had a great week with Jacksonville receiving 3 times its normal rain and then some! One other bonus was found in the sky. Take a look!

I think this is the first rainbow I have seen in 2011 or the year of the extreme weather. Do you realize that 4.2 million across have burned across the US. That is the size of the state of Connecticut. Normally fire season chars about 2 million acres. We do have to realize this fire season is far from over even if the long-range maps still have another 3 to 5 inches of rain on the way over the next 2 weeks. Our evaporation rates this time of year are insanely high or about .25" to .50" a day which means a lot of the rain we received this week has been evaporated. The Division of Forestry says it will take a tropical storm dumping over 10" of widespread rain on us to really help! I do not have any tropical storms on the way but at least more rain. Remember, baby steps! It is better than no steps at all. This makes today's forecast important. Let's take a look!

The set-up is a lot like yesterday although I will stick by yesterday's forecast of less rain. I think about 40% of us will see scattered showers and thunderstorms especially east of highway 301 and the storms will move from west to east. We will be helped by the Gulf Coast and East Coast sea breeze meeting over us and that high pressure really will not build into the area in a big way until Sunday. The west-southwest wind today will shift most of the thicker smoke into Georgia. Brunswick and St. Simons Island will likely have reduced visibilities to near 1 mile even this afternoon before we can kick up a few storms. Air quality will be unhealthy in Georgia for sensitive groups with some improvement by late day and Florida will remain in the moderate range which means there is still a moderate health risk for those with respiratory ailments.

Today's storms will once produce a few strong wind gusts like we saw yesterday. We had a few areas like Oceanway you see above hit with 60 mph winds and St. Augsustine officially recorded a 61 mph wind gust. Remember your lightning safety rules and if you cannot see out of your car under one of those heavy downpours make sure to pull to the side of the road until the storm passes. I look forward to updating more rainfall amounts here on the blog on Sunday and we will talk about taking care of Dad for Father's Day! Make sure to get Dad an early tee time with highs in the middle 90s and a heat index near 100. There will be a whole lot more sun than storms with only 10% seeing a cooling storm tomorrow. A movie would even work really well! Take care and if you are looking to stay cool this weekend. Here are a couple more ideas!

You can go see Lizard Man in St. Augustine at the Ripley's Believe it or Not or you can go see CATS playing all weekend at the Times Union Center. You see I got in the spirit as some of the cast members painted whiskers on my face this morning. I told them it was okay as long as it brought rain and hopefully it will rain cats and dogs. Lizard man lived up to the hype as well on Good Morning Jacksonville this morning. No he was not Barry Williams or Michael Winslow but he lived up to the hype and certainly interesting in his own way! Have a great weekend!

Less smoky and stormy, but keep Dad cool for Father's Day

What an incredible picture sent in from Charlie near Hastings. This is a dust-devil he captured for us and this is something you would see in Arizona not in Florida! This shows you how bad our drought actually  is. Now the good news is this did not do any damage and we are not expecting tornadoes to finish out the week. We will see a few strong storms this evening. The main threats will be 40 mph wind gusts, lightning and heavy downpours. Let it rain! Some areas could pick up a quick one to two inches.

We need to squeeze all the rain we can because high pressure move in this weekend which will dry us out. I do not expect as much smoke with more mixing and a southwest breeze. But what this does mean is it will stay scorching hot with highs even at the beaches well into the 90s. Remember to keep Dad cool for Father's Day on Sunday. I am not expecting any cooling storms with highs near 100! Here is a great reminder above to also take care of  man's best friend. Tropical Smoothie is taking care of man's best friend with free water for your pets and smoothies to keep you cool! Stay cool and Happy Father's Day to all the Dads!