Thunderstorms Explode With Frequent Lightning & Wind

Well we knew it was coming and I am glad I warned you here on the blog. There will be a few thunderstorm warnings as storms move through the area between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. I think there will be some isolated wind gusts to 60 mph. The other big threat will be the nearly continuous cloud to ground lightning expected as there is an unsually high amount of ice at the top of these thunderheads that are quickly building to over 40,000 feet where temperatures are near zero degrees. Movement on these storms will be to the southeast at about 10 mph. Keep an eye to the northwest because that is where the storms are coming from.

Thunderstorms Return to Forecast With Gusty Winds Likely

This has been the familiar scene on radar but do not get used to it as we could go from severe clear to severe weather. It has been high and dry for the past four days in the Jacksonville and St. Augustine area but just in time for our Saturday afternoon plans things will get more interesting today. We will still be plenty hot at the surface with highs in the lower to middle 90s but the big change is some cooler air aloft moving over our area. This same pool of cool air brought 4 to 7 inches of rain of rain to portions of Georgia overnight with some severe thunderstorms to boot. For thunderstorms to form you have to have some cooler air aloft and this missing ingredient will be present today here at home due to the outflow from those Georgia storms. Even though things have settled down this morning the upper-level winds will bring that disturbance into Northeast Florida this afternoon and collide with plenty of heat and humidity.

There could be SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS with the main threat being damaging winds. There could also be some locally heavy rainfall amounts of over one inch and much of that could fall in 30 minutes or less so be careful of flooding. In a nutshell, do not cancel your plans to the beach and pool today but stay alert to changing conditions. Any storms that do form will likely last less than an hour. Right now I put our rain chances at 70%. Stay safe.


Here is a satellite picture showing the "ridge rider" (shown in white) disturbance running around our hot high pressure that will help flare up storms this afternoon. Sunday should be much quieter with just a lone shower or storm as high pressure once again builds east and gains more strength keeping the atmosphere warmer at all levels and not allowing any more ridge-riders to play havoc with our plans. No big changes to your 10 day forecast, but I will make sure to post an update for you before you can get it anywhere else. It is the competitive spirit I developed at WLFI TV-18.

Forget El Nino! It's Calma Ponto Time this Summer!

We are all aware that El Nino does have an impact on our weather patterns all across the world and by the end of the summer it should really start to kick in as the equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures continue to heat up to above average levels. This is only one of several factors meteorologists use to forecast long-range weather. So we will not totally forget about El Nino. But a bigger player for us this summer will in fact be CALMA PONTO! This is a name I have given the unusually cool Atlantic Ocean temperatures that are taking place. It is a Spanish phrase for "cool waters". The Climate Prediction Center came out with big news yesterday by showing Atlantic Ocean temperatures running almost a half-degree Celsius below normal. This cool reading is significant because this favors below average numbers of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic Basin. Only one year produced greater than 13 named storms with Atlantic waters running this cool. You can really see CALMA PONTO with two huge areas of cooler than average water above depicted by the blue and deeper bluer colors. El Nino is showing up in the equatorial Pacific with the green and yellow colors starting to take over. So remember the big factor this summer will be CALMA PONTO in the tropics and what this means is not only fewer numbers but hurricanes that will form closer to land areas with all of that cool water located off of Africa. The Carribean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico will be the hot beds of activity this year and will have to be watched closely. Here in Florida we will have to watch these areas more carefully and a tropical system will try to move our way by next weekend, but it is still very early. But for our season as a whole the news is good.

Happy Friday! Another reason to celebrate is the Saharan Dust is being found well out over the Atlantic Ocean. This is related to higher pressure in place related to the Calma Ponto. Less convective activity or thundersotrms in this region allows the dust to really build up and this is yet tidbit of good news we can use to help forecast our hurricane season. Over the years, the higher amounts of Saharan Dust over the Atlantic it correlates to a fewer the number of tropical sytems you can expect to develop. So we will have a plan and remain ready this tropical season because as we know it only takes one storm and being in the wrong place at the wrong time to make it a bad hurricane season. We will plan for the worst and hope for the best but at least for now the atmosphere has the "best" winning out and hopefully that will continue.

Another reason to be excited this Friday is the Space Shuttle Endeavour forecast is looking wonderful! The Prangley family is looking forward to seeing the Space Shuttle Endeavour lift off for the first time in person. I heard it is a sight to behold and the ground will shake like the earthquake I went through in Lafayette back in April of 2008! I am ready for another adrenaline rush! I look forward to having a blast, literally! The forecast above does look great, thanks to an early morning launch and yes the winds look light. Any wind speeds over 20 mph pose a threat to launch. I will check back with you this evening which will include all the hot numbers and when our plants will get some needed rain in the 10 day forecast. It is also rip current awareness week in Florida so I will have a graph that will amaze you.

http://www.ripcurrents.noaa.gov/

In the meantime go to this link since most of us will be heading to the beach this weekend. It could save your life. Have a great day weatherwise and otherwise! I think it will be another good day to get some ice cream!

Lemonade Days, Haze, & Great Pool Weather! Snow Days this Winter?

This is what most of us have been waiting for! We finally have that vintage hot Florida weather and it is just perfect for selling lemonade. It went fast in this hot weather! My daughters made a quick 5 dollars in less than an hour this morning by selling water, traditional lemonade, and raspberry lemonade for only 25 cents per cup! The outdoor workers really appreciated it. My girls are quite the entrepreneurs and they are off to a great start on their first full day of summer vacation. The neighborhood kids pitched in and made sure to bring plenty of ice to keep the refreshing beverages cold! Today's high will reach 96 with a heat index of 100 to 105 so remember to drink plenty of fluids and of course take advantage of this weather by hitting the pool!

Here are Abbey, Alyssa, Lauren, and Megan cooling down in the pool after selling all of that lemonade. Now today will be the 13th day with temperatures of 90 or above at Jacksonville. Pool temperatures around the area are now in the lower 80s and the ocean temperatures should hit 80 degrees for the first time this year over the weekend. Yesterday I told you that Jacksonville averaged 82 days of 90 degrees or above per year but this year we will likely see less than that. This does not mean we will not have plenty of great swimming, surfing, and boating weather this summer but it is a reflection of a forecast that includes having more clouds and rain than average due to an El Nino seting in. This is good news for our lawns and gardens and those that like the cooler 80 degree days. Some of the latest long-range maps are picking up on this. Check it out!

Notice much of the country falls into the cooler than average territory and more importantly you can see that if any heat ridges build this summer they will not last for more than a couple weeks and this includes Florida. As a result I look for us to have closer to 65 days of 90 degrees or above and locations in Remington, Attica, and Lafayette Indiana will be hard-pressed to more than 6 or 7 days above 90 degrees this year for the entire summer which is less than half of normal. Here in Florida, not quite as dramatic of a drop-off but still a good 17 days below the average. This means Julie and I better keep the Florida house tidy. The Hoosiers are coming, the Hoosiers are coming for real summer weather because it may be tough to find it in good ol' Indiana!

Now the big question is how strong will the El Nino become. This has a big bearing on our hurricane forecast and winter forecast. It is not a matter of if we will have an El Nino but when. Notice all the different model forecasts above. The thing to pay attention to is the 1 degree above average line. This is how far above average the Pacific Ocean temperatures are expected to be and notice there is a big variation in our computer model forecasts. If we get to the one degree line in actuality or much above it....that is considered a moderate to strong El Nino. I do not see this happening based on several indeces. I will put an easy to see graph on here by later tonight but here is what you need to know in Florida I think we are heading into a weak El Nino by July and it will continue for the rest of 2009.

What does this mean for huricanes? During a non-El Nino year there are about 7 hurricanes or more, a weak El Nino brings 5 hurricanes which is about average, and a moderate to strong El Nino usually 3 or less. This makes a huge difference on numbers! I still think my original forecast of 10 named storms and 5 hurricanes is on track but remember Jacksonville's 2 percent chance of a hurricane will be a little higher this year based on it being a non-traditional season. This graph also tells me that Indiana is in for a big winter this year. This past year was disappointing with snowfall as we had amounts of only 18 inches. Average snowfall per year in Lafayette is 22 inches. This year I like 30 inches or more of snow. The problem will not be the cold air, but maybe a lack of moisture. If you get enough moisture watch out Indiana! Here in Florida these below average temperatures are expected to continue into the winter with a suppressed El Nino jet stream, AND I WILL NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SNOW FOR FLORIDA THIS WINTER, and we are due here in Jacksonville. Every six years the First Coast has snow flurries. The last time this happened was way back in 1993 when I lived here and I absolutely had a blast! This could be the year we see snow again and I am not just talking about my beloved Indiana. I have your updated 10 day forecast on the way which shows when the heat will break! Tomorrow we will take a look at some interesting graphs and Saharan Dust over the Atlantic Ocean that could even keep our hurricane numbers even lower. Now your exclusive 10 day forecast!

Last Day of School Sizzles & I Do Have A Long-Range Forecast that Will Cool You Down

The excitement is in the air! We are not just talking about the unusually fast-moving air molecules that are causing our thermometers to almost burst. It is the last day of school today for many kids. My daughter Abbey is seen in green here and I wanted to thank her fourth grade teacher April Doughtry for sending this my way. I hope all the kids have a fun and safe summer. There will be plenty of fun in that hot sun today. We had a heat index up to 90 degrees by 10 a.m. The old saying is, "it's not the heat but the humidity". Well this UNF graduate and meteorologist that knows Florida weather knows better. The way we say it here on the First Coast is that it "it is the heat and humidity" that will cause you to work up a good sweat just walking to your car.

Here is a pictue of my last trip to the bus stop this year. I am very proud of how wonderful Megan and Abbey adjusted to their new schools and state of Florida. It went much better than I thought possible. I thank them for having an open mind and making the best of this move. This adventure we call life takes unexpected twists and turns but no matter what happens or where you live it is all about staying close to your family and God. We also have a great support network of friends stretching from Florida to Indiana. Our Indiana friends are in fact life-long friends and I cannot thank them enough. I also love hearing from my weather watchers and loyal bloggers.

Speaking of Indiana, here is a nice picture sent in from Richard in Attica, Indiana. These clouds are called turkey towers. They are among some of my favorite clouds. I name these towering cumulus clouds turkey towers because they can make meteorologists look like turkeys if they call for thunderstorms in the forecast. They are a sign of the atmosphere not quite having enough moisture or instability to allow these towers to grow into thunderheads or cumulonimbus clouds. Now over the next few days in Indiana do not expect to see turkey towers but the real thing. Look for more thunderstorms and some of them could once again be on the strong side. Thanks Richard! Here in Florida we will be lucky so see any clouds whatsoever today.

This is all in response to a strong high pressure system with its anti-cyclonic circulation and its sinking air taking hold of the atmosphere. When you have sinking air you have plenty of heating this time of year and a lack of clouds or cooling storms as evidenced by this picture. Not a cloud can be find in the sky around the First Coast. Here is what it looked like in Downtown Jacksonville this morning. The sky was as blue as the Main Street Bridge. It may look picture-perfect but looks can be deceiving when it comes to all the heat nature is throwing at us.

I am going to stay cool by taking my girls to the pool once they get out of school and we will go get some shaved ice. If you are thinking about cutting your lawn and I know my lawn needs it after all of the rain, it would be smart to put it off until after 7 p.m. tonight when things start cooling down. The new updated forecast high for today is 95 degrees but it will feel like 100 to 105 in all of that heat and humidity. Nature's air conditioner which is the nice sea breeze we are used to this time of year will not hit the beaches until late afternoon and will likely not make it to Interstate 95 as a west wind continues to hold it back at near 10 mph. The beaches have been unsually cool and stormy like the rest of us and they are going to have their first 90s of the year as a result over the next several days.

Now if you are heading to the beach for some relief from the heat you will have to actually get in the water and swim or surf like my daughters to stay cool. Water temperatures are still in the comfortable middle 70s. One thing you do not want to do is to suntan in this weather. Once you develop a sunburn your body quickly loses its ability to cool itself down. Then you add in the scorching sunshine and high humidity and it is a very bad combination. We have a burn time of only 10 minutes today. Make sure to apply and reapply that sunscreen and do it before you get to the pool or beach or it will already be too late!

Here is my ravishing wife Julie laying out in the sun a couple weeks ago. When we go to the beach as a family this weekend I will make sure everybody has on SPF 30 or higher and make sure we have a beach tent or umbrella for all of us to eat our lunch under. I know a lot of folks love this hot stuff and take the heat in stride but it is always good to be reminded of a few common sense ways to help make sure you can enjoy this weather to the fullest without getting a nasty sunburn, dehyrdrated, or worse yet a heat stroke. It really is the first heat wave of the year and now we are ready to have some fun in the sun.

Now if you are a fan of cooler weather and need a forecast to help cool you down even if the 90s will not break until later next week. I will let you know why I think we will have less 90 degree days than average this year and the latest on the El Nino and tropics. Here are your updated forecast numbers and you ten day forecast which is a full three hours sooner than you can get anywhere else. Most folks are on the go this time of year and do not have time to sit in front of the TV. Well you finally have a place you can always come to for your local forecast with always more than a lemon twist. Just wait wait until we start the video forecasts. :) I will check in with you this evening to help cool you down. Happy SUMMER!!! Thanks for reading.

A Lemonade Advisory: Longest Hot Spell in More than A Year Bakes Jacksonville Area

If you have been outside you can feel the difference. My kids are ready to set up their lemonade stand at the pool and they should do quite well based on your up to date forecast through the weekend you see above. This is why I have issued a lemonade advisory. The clouds and scattered showers and storms that have been cooling us down are nowhere to be found. The Jacksonville area has had rain on the radar 23 of the past 27 days. Now today we will have only isolated shower or thunderstorm activity which means more of us will stay dry and hot than not. The difference-maker is a ridge of high pressure building in. Check out the clear real estate below. You see the latest NAM model showing very little in the way of rainfall this afternoon. This is what I mean by isolated shower and thunderstorm activity! Get used to this picture over the next several days!

This is the reason today is just the beginning of nature's 90 degree onslaught. In the Midwest 3 or more days reaching 90 or above is considered a heat wave. Here in Florida it usually takes 10 or more days of 90 degrees or above for it to be considered a heat wave. We may reach that criteria. In fact, I could see us reaching up to 12 consecutive days of 90 degrees or above. The last time we had 12 or more days of 90 degrees or above was more than a year ago when we sizzled from May 31st through June 11th. The latest long-range models are showing this hot spell or heat wave extending for more than 10 days as long as the tropics do not flare up. Now remember it could have been a lot hotter if it wasn't for all of our record rains like we talked about on the blog yesterday, so no complaints. :)

I do expect tropical trouble or at least plenty of moisture from the Caribbean to move our way but probably not until later next week and especially next weekend. But that is a long way out and we will continue to monitor it day to day. You see the area of most concern right now is in the far southwestern Carribean but there is just too much shear taking place or high upper-level winds keeping the thunderstorms from organizing or showing any consistent presence. The yellow lines above represent the amount of shear tearing the thunderstorms apart and notice in the Caribbean there is a good 20 to just over 50 knots of shear taking place. I expect the shear to start relaxing but again that will not be likely until later next week.

Since nothing is imminent and with no organized fronts or tropical systems in the near future, the heat is on. June usually produces 17 days of 90 degrees or above and we have only seen one day of 90 degrees or above which is only 20% of normal. Now nature will be playing catch-up and while we will not set any records, you certainly will have to take notice of the heat. You see the five day forecast above. I will take it a step further and take it out 10 days for you below. You stay cool and I will have an El Nino update coming your way by tomorrow here on your First Coast Weather Blog.


Now it is time to hit the lemonade stand and then of course the pool and with temperatures like these. The ocean should also warm up to near 80 degrees over the next week. I will be adding your beach and boating forecast here as well on the weather blog so make sure to check back. We have only just begun! I also have some more great pictures from Richard Beedle and Teri Trent that include some unusual clouds called "turkey towers". You thought the 'whale's mouth clouds" were interesting. Wait until you see those turkeys!

Silver Lining In Clouds Arrives But Do Not Get Used To It!

It has been quite a struggle to get much sunshine in the Sunshine State these days. You see the St. Augustine lighthouse on Saturday which almost had to be illuminated during the day since it got as dark as night at times in all of those storms that pounded the area. But finally it is not the only beacon of light in your new and improved forecast. The good news is there are brighter days ahead for the country's 10th tallest lighthouse and all Floridians courtesy of high pressure moving our way from the Gulf of Mexico. We in fact should say sizzling sunshine returns this week with plenty of 90s in the forecast beginning tomorrow. We are ready for a break in the weather. This weather pattern has taken its toll. Notice the damage at a convenience store near Brunswick, Georgia last week. While a tornado was not verified the damage does look like it was caused by downburst or straightline winds which can be just as bad as a tornado. This picture proves it!


I did have a great time this weekend and wanted to send a special shout out to WLFI TV-18's reporter and producer Julie Krizen who was in town for a wedding. It was great to see her and her boyfriend who is on the Purdue cheer team. We did Boiler Up! We hit all the shops in St. Augustine including the historic castle. Since Julie is a native Floridian from Sarasota she taught me a thing or two about coquina shells while we went for a walk on the beach. She did hold me accountable for us getting caught in the rain but that is okay. It was warm and humid outside so the rain actually felt good. Here is a picture above of Julie and I. Keep up the great work in Indiana Julie! I would not be surprised to see you on television back home here in Florida someday.

Now one good thing about all the rain we have had is that it has been keeping our temperatures in check. Even when we start drying out all the rain we have had will play a big role in our weather forecast. Normally with 5,000 foot temperatures up near 20 Celsius on the latest model runs that would be enough for me to call Mom and Dad in Mandarin and warn them about highs of 100 degrees. That forecast would have worked over the past couple of years, but not this year. It has been so soggy that a good portion of the sun's energy will go into evaporating all of that ground water that has built up across the area. Remember the earth is heated from the ground up and not the other way around. Since last Friday much of the First Coast has had between two and three inches of rain. Of course this is following the wettest May on record for most of our area. Since the middle of May we have had an astounding 15 to 20 inches across much of the First Coast. Think about it! Some areas have already had a summer's worth of rain since the middle of May. Now it will still get hot in this forecast, but it could have been a lot worse. Another thing saving us from the worst of the searing heat will be the strength of the ridge moving our way. We do not have the protoypical strong monster high pressure we see this time of year that normally builds in the Gulf of Mexico. Notice the bullseye for this heat-maker or center of the high pressure ridge stays back in Mexico.

If anything the high presure ridge will weaken as we head into the weekend as stormy weather to the North continues to suppress it well to the south. This tells me here at home not only will we have highs only in the lower to middle 90s but we will have to keep at least a few scattered thunderstorms in the forecast this week. But the good news is these will be the more typical splash and dash Florida showers and thunderstorms you are used to. They will not ruin your plans and should not last more than an hour. This will be a big change. This pattern shift is long overdue! You can see one of many rainbows spotted along CR-210 in St. Johns County this week. We will finally find our pot of golden sunshine back in the forecast this week.


Now the question is will it last? We have not seen a deluge like this in Florida since the last El Nino and we will talk more about this during the week here on the blog. El Nino conditions are still likely as we head into the July and August. This will have a big impact on our rainfall and numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes over the next several months. Based on the latest long-range maps, the polar jet stream will continue to stay well south of its normal position and more blocking is likely across Canada. This tends to keep things stormier than normal here in Florida as we have seen over the past few weeks. Here are the long-range outlooks for precipitation in this El Nino pattern across the country.
Even though it may be tough to see. I can decipher this map for you. Let me zoom in for you to just include the summer of 2009.

All the green above are areas that will have greater chances of seeing more precipitation than average which includes us in the St. Augustine, Jacksonville, and Golden Isles. You see the blue over Indiana! This means get ready for a deluge of rain and more stormy weather. The red and orange areas are forecasted to be drier than normal. Florida is expected to have above average precipitation all the way through February of 2010. So everybody that has been wishing and praying for rain for years may in fact see more rain that they ever thought possible. This wetter pattern is here to stay. We should be able to save a lot of money on lawn and plant watering this year so that is some great news. I do see a drier week but again some of us will see some rain with even heavier rain moving our way from the Caribbean by later next week. That is right the tropics are flaring up again! I will have another tropical update coming your way along with your long-range forecast tomorrow.. .enjoy these "drier" days this week while you can.