Lemonade Days, Haze, & Great Pool Weather! Snow Days this Winter?

This is what most of us have been waiting for! We finally have that vintage hot Florida weather and it is just perfect for selling lemonade. It went fast in this hot weather! My daughters made a quick 5 dollars in less than an hour this morning by selling water, traditional lemonade, and raspberry lemonade for only 25 cents per cup! The outdoor workers really appreciated it. My girls are quite the entrepreneurs and they are off to a great start on their first full day of summer vacation. The neighborhood kids pitched in and made sure to bring plenty of ice to keep the refreshing beverages cold! Today's high will reach 96 with a heat index of 100 to 105 so remember to drink plenty of fluids and of course take advantage of this weather by hitting the pool!

Here are Abbey, Alyssa, Lauren, and Megan cooling down in the pool after selling all of that lemonade. Now today will be the 13th day with temperatures of 90 or above at Jacksonville. Pool temperatures around the area are now in the lower 80s and the ocean temperatures should hit 80 degrees for the first time this year over the weekend. Yesterday I told you that Jacksonville averaged 82 days of 90 degrees or above per year but this year we will likely see less than that. This does not mean we will not have plenty of great swimming, surfing, and boating weather this summer but it is a reflection of a forecast that includes having more clouds and rain than average due to an El Nino seting in. This is good news for our lawns and gardens and those that like the cooler 80 degree days. Some of the latest long-range maps are picking up on this. Check it out!

Notice much of the country falls into the cooler than average territory and more importantly you can see that if any heat ridges build this summer they will not last for more than a couple weeks and this includes Florida. As a result I look for us to have closer to 65 days of 90 degrees or above and locations in Remington, Attica, and Lafayette Indiana will be hard-pressed to more than 6 or 7 days above 90 degrees this year for the entire summer which is less than half of normal. Here in Florida, not quite as dramatic of a drop-off but still a good 17 days below the average. This means Julie and I better keep the Florida house tidy. The Hoosiers are coming, the Hoosiers are coming for real summer weather because it may be tough to find it in good ol' Indiana!

Now the big question is how strong will the El Nino become. This has a big bearing on our hurricane forecast and winter forecast. It is not a matter of if we will have an El Nino but when. Notice all the different model forecasts above. The thing to pay attention to is the 1 degree above average line. This is how far above average the Pacific Ocean temperatures are expected to be and notice there is a big variation in our computer model forecasts. If we get to the one degree line in actuality or much above it....that is considered a moderate to strong El Nino. I do not see this happening based on several indeces. I will put an easy to see graph on here by later tonight but here is what you need to know in Florida I think we are heading into a weak El Nino by July and it will continue for the rest of 2009.

What does this mean for huricanes? During a non-El Nino year there are about 7 hurricanes or more, a weak El Nino brings 5 hurricanes which is about average, and a moderate to strong El Nino usually 3 or less. This makes a huge difference on numbers! I still think my original forecast of 10 named storms and 5 hurricanes is on track but remember Jacksonville's 2 percent chance of a hurricane will be a little higher this year based on it being a non-traditional season. This graph also tells me that Indiana is in for a big winter this year. This past year was disappointing with snowfall as we had amounts of only 18 inches. Average snowfall per year in Lafayette is 22 inches. This year I like 30 inches or more of snow. The problem will not be the cold air, but maybe a lack of moisture. If you get enough moisture watch out Indiana! Here in Florida these below average temperatures are expected to continue into the winter with a suppressed El Nino jet stream, AND I WILL NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SNOW FOR FLORIDA THIS WINTER, and we are due here in Jacksonville. Every six years the First Coast has snow flurries. The last time this happened was way back in 1993 when I lived here and I absolutely had a blast! This could be the year we see snow again and I am not just talking about my beloved Indiana. I have your updated 10 day forecast on the way which shows when the heat will break! Tomorrow we will take a look at some interesting graphs and Saharan Dust over the Atlantic Ocean that could even keep our hurricane numbers even lower. Now your exclusive 10 day forecast!

Last Day of School Sizzles & I Do Have A Long-Range Forecast that Will Cool You Down

The excitement is in the air! We are not just talking about the unusually fast-moving air molecules that are causing our thermometers to almost burst. It is the last day of school today for many kids. My daughter Abbey is seen in green here and I wanted to thank her fourth grade teacher April Doughtry for sending this my way. I hope all the kids have a fun and safe summer. There will be plenty of fun in that hot sun today. We had a heat index up to 90 degrees by 10 a.m. The old saying is, "it's not the heat but the humidity". Well this UNF graduate and meteorologist that knows Florida weather knows better. The way we say it here on the First Coast is that it "it is the heat and humidity" that will cause you to work up a good sweat just walking to your car.

Here is a pictue of my last trip to the bus stop this year. I am very proud of how wonderful Megan and Abbey adjusted to their new schools and state of Florida. It went much better than I thought possible. I thank them for having an open mind and making the best of this move. This adventure we call life takes unexpected twists and turns but no matter what happens or where you live it is all about staying close to your family and God. We also have a great support network of friends stretching from Florida to Indiana. Our Indiana friends are in fact life-long friends and I cannot thank them enough. I also love hearing from my weather watchers and loyal bloggers.

Speaking of Indiana, here is a nice picture sent in from Richard in Attica, Indiana. These clouds are called turkey towers. They are among some of my favorite clouds. I name these towering cumulus clouds turkey towers because they can make meteorologists look like turkeys if they call for thunderstorms in the forecast. They are a sign of the atmosphere not quite having enough moisture or instability to allow these towers to grow into thunderheads or cumulonimbus clouds. Now over the next few days in Indiana do not expect to see turkey towers but the real thing. Look for more thunderstorms and some of them could once again be on the strong side. Thanks Richard! Here in Florida we will be lucky so see any clouds whatsoever today.

This is all in response to a strong high pressure system with its anti-cyclonic circulation and its sinking air taking hold of the atmosphere. When you have sinking air you have plenty of heating this time of year and a lack of clouds or cooling storms as evidenced by this picture. Not a cloud can be find in the sky around the First Coast. Here is what it looked like in Downtown Jacksonville this morning. The sky was as blue as the Main Street Bridge. It may look picture-perfect but looks can be deceiving when it comes to all the heat nature is throwing at us.

I am going to stay cool by taking my girls to the pool once they get out of school and we will go get some shaved ice. If you are thinking about cutting your lawn and I know my lawn needs it after all of the rain, it would be smart to put it off until after 7 p.m. tonight when things start cooling down. The new updated forecast high for today is 95 degrees but it will feel like 100 to 105 in all of that heat and humidity. Nature's air conditioner which is the nice sea breeze we are used to this time of year will not hit the beaches until late afternoon and will likely not make it to Interstate 95 as a west wind continues to hold it back at near 10 mph. The beaches have been unsually cool and stormy like the rest of us and they are going to have their first 90s of the year as a result over the next several days.

Now if you are heading to the beach for some relief from the heat you will have to actually get in the water and swim or surf like my daughters to stay cool. Water temperatures are still in the comfortable middle 70s. One thing you do not want to do is to suntan in this weather. Once you develop a sunburn your body quickly loses its ability to cool itself down. Then you add in the scorching sunshine and high humidity and it is a very bad combination. We have a burn time of only 10 minutes today. Make sure to apply and reapply that sunscreen and do it before you get to the pool or beach or it will already be too late!

Here is my ravishing wife Julie laying out in the sun a couple weeks ago. When we go to the beach as a family this weekend I will make sure everybody has on SPF 30 or higher and make sure we have a beach tent or umbrella for all of us to eat our lunch under. I know a lot of folks love this hot stuff and take the heat in stride but it is always good to be reminded of a few common sense ways to help make sure you can enjoy this weather to the fullest without getting a nasty sunburn, dehyrdrated, or worse yet a heat stroke. It really is the first heat wave of the year and now we are ready to have some fun in the sun.

Now if you are a fan of cooler weather and need a forecast to help cool you down even if the 90s will not break until later next week. I will let you know why I think we will have less 90 degree days than average this year and the latest on the El Nino and tropics. Here are your updated forecast numbers and you ten day forecast which is a full three hours sooner than you can get anywhere else. Most folks are on the go this time of year and do not have time to sit in front of the TV. Well you finally have a place you can always come to for your local forecast with always more than a lemon twist. Just wait wait until we start the video forecasts. :) I will check in with you this evening to help cool you down. Happy SUMMER!!! Thanks for reading.

A Lemonade Advisory: Longest Hot Spell in More than A Year Bakes Jacksonville Area

If you have been outside you can feel the difference. My kids are ready to set up their lemonade stand at the pool and they should do quite well based on your up to date forecast through the weekend you see above. This is why I have issued a lemonade advisory. The clouds and scattered showers and storms that have been cooling us down are nowhere to be found. The Jacksonville area has had rain on the radar 23 of the past 27 days. Now today we will have only isolated shower or thunderstorm activity which means more of us will stay dry and hot than not. The difference-maker is a ridge of high pressure building in. Check out the clear real estate below. You see the latest NAM model showing very little in the way of rainfall this afternoon. This is what I mean by isolated shower and thunderstorm activity! Get used to this picture over the next several days!

This is the reason today is just the beginning of nature's 90 degree onslaught. In the Midwest 3 or more days reaching 90 or above is considered a heat wave. Here in Florida it usually takes 10 or more days of 90 degrees or above for it to be considered a heat wave. We may reach that criteria. In fact, I could see us reaching up to 12 consecutive days of 90 degrees or above. The last time we had 12 or more days of 90 degrees or above was more than a year ago when we sizzled from May 31st through June 11th. The latest long-range models are showing this hot spell or heat wave extending for more than 10 days as long as the tropics do not flare up. Now remember it could have been a lot hotter if it wasn't for all of our record rains like we talked about on the blog yesterday, so no complaints. :)

I do expect tropical trouble or at least plenty of moisture from the Caribbean to move our way but probably not until later next week and especially next weekend. But that is a long way out and we will continue to monitor it day to day. You see the area of most concern right now is in the far southwestern Carribean but there is just too much shear taking place or high upper-level winds keeping the thunderstorms from organizing or showing any consistent presence. The yellow lines above represent the amount of shear tearing the thunderstorms apart and notice in the Caribbean there is a good 20 to just over 50 knots of shear taking place. I expect the shear to start relaxing but again that will not be likely until later next week.

Since nothing is imminent and with no organized fronts or tropical systems in the near future, the heat is on. June usually produces 17 days of 90 degrees or above and we have only seen one day of 90 degrees or above which is only 20% of normal. Now nature will be playing catch-up and while we will not set any records, you certainly will have to take notice of the heat. You see the five day forecast above. I will take it a step further and take it out 10 days for you below. You stay cool and I will have an El Nino update coming your way by tomorrow here on your First Coast Weather Blog.


Now it is time to hit the lemonade stand and then of course the pool and with temperatures like these. The ocean should also warm up to near 80 degrees over the next week. I will be adding your beach and boating forecast here as well on the weather blog so make sure to check back. We have only just begun! I also have some more great pictures from Richard Beedle and Teri Trent that include some unusual clouds called "turkey towers". You thought the 'whale's mouth clouds" were interesting. Wait until you see those turkeys!

Silver Lining In Clouds Arrives But Do Not Get Used To It!

It has been quite a struggle to get much sunshine in the Sunshine State these days. You see the St. Augustine lighthouse on Saturday which almost had to be illuminated during the day since it got as dark as night at times in all of those storms that pounded the area. But finally it is not the only beacon of light in your new and improved forecast. The good news is there are brighter days ahead for the country's 10th tallest lighthouse and all Floridians courtesy of high pressure moving our way from the Gulf of Mexico. We in fact should say sizzling sunshine returns this week with plenty of 90s in the forecast beginning tomorrow. We are ready for a break in the weather. This weather pattern has taken its toll. Notice the damage at a convenience store near Brunswick, Georgia last week. While a tornado was not verified the damage does look like it was caused by downburst or straightline winds which can be just as bad as a tornado. This picture proves it!


I did have a great time this weekend and wanted to send a special shout out to WLFI TV-18's reporter and producer Julie Krizen who was in town for a wedding. It was great to see her and her boyfriend who is on the Purdue cheer team. We did Boiler Up! We hit all the shops in St. Augustine including the historic castle. Since Julie is a native Floridian from Sarasota she taught me a thing or two about coquina shells while we went for a walk on the beach. She did hold me accountable for us getting caught in the rain but that is okay. It was warm and humid outside so the rain actually felt good. Here is a picture above of Julie and I. Keep up the great work in Indiana Julie! I would not be surprised to see you on television back home here in Florida someday.

Now one good thing about all the rain we have had is that it has been keeping our temperatures in check. Even when we start drying out all the rain we have had will play a big role in our weather forecast. Normally with 5,000 foot temperatures up near 20 Celsius on the latest model runs that would be enough for me to call Mom and Dad in Mandarin and warn them about highs of 100 degrees. That forecast would have worked over the past couple of years, but not this year. It has been so soggy that a good portion of the sun's energy will go into evaporating all of that ground water that has built up across the area. Remember the earth is heated from the ground up and not the other way around. Since last Friday much of the First Coast has had between two and three inches of rain. Of course this is following the wettest May on record for most of our area. Since the middle of May we have had an astounding 15 to 20 inches across much of the First Coast. Think about it! Some areas have already had a summer's worth of rain since the middle of May. Now it will still get hot in this forecast, but it could have been a lot worse. Another thing saving us from the worst of the searing heat will be the strength of the ridge moving our way. We do not have the protoypical strong monster high pressure we see this time of year that normally builds in the Gulf of Mexico. Notice the bullseye for this heat-maker or center of the high pressure ridge stays back in Mexico.

If anything the high presure ridge will weaken as we head into the weekend as stormy weather to the North continues to suppress it well to the south. This tells me here at home not only will we have highs only in the lower to middle 90s but we will have to keep at least a few scattered thunderstorms in the forecast this week. But the good news is these will be the more typical splash and dash Florida showers and thunderstorms you are used to. They will not ruin your plans and should not last more than an hour. This will be a big change. This pattern shift is long overdue! You can see one of many rainbows spotted along CR-210 in St. Johns County this week. We will finally find our pot of golden sunshine back in the forecast this week.


Now the question is will it last? We have not seen a deluge like this in Florida since the last El Nino and we will talk more about this during the week here on the blog. El Nino conditions are still likely as we head into the July and August. This will have a big impact on our rainfall and numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes over the next several months. Based on the latest long-range maps, the polar jet stream will continue to stay well south of its normal position and more blocking is likely across Canada. This tends to keep things stormier than normal here in Florida as we have seen over the past few weeks. Here are the long-range outlooks for precipitation in this El Nino pattern across the country.
Even though it may be tough to see. I can decipher this map for you. Let me zoom in for you to just include the summer of 2009.

All the green above are areas that will have greater chances of seeing more precipitation than average which includes us in the St. Augustine, Jacksonville, and Golden Isles. You see the blue over Indiana! This means get ready for a deluge of rain and more stormy weather. The red and orange areas are forecasted to be drier than normal. Florida is expected to have above average precipitation all the way through February of 2010. So everybody that has been wishing and praying for rain for years may in fact see more rain that they ever thought possible. This wetter pattern is here to stay. We should be able to save a lot of money on lawn and plant watering this year so that is some great news. I do see a drier week but again some of us will see some rain with even heavier rain moving our way from the Caribbean by later next week. That is right the tropics are flaring up again! I will have another tropical update coming your way along with your long-range forecast tomorrow.. .enjoy these "drier" days this week while you can.

Stuck in the Liquid Sunshine in Florida, A Winter Wonderland in the Dakotas

You can see the lingering lousy low that will not go away in southeast Georgia this morning. This low pressure is the culprit for all of the heavy rain across the First Coast and do not expect it to move away anytime soon. We are in a holding pattern as this area of low pressure is stuck between a high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico to its southwest and a high pressure over the Carolinas to the Northeast. This is unusual for Florida in that we once again saw several hours of continuous rain yesterday. Usually it rains for less than 40 minutes this time of year and then you can get on with your plans. Not this time around. The rain was relentless and our rain-maker was the product of a trough split. You can say this beast formed due to the unusually stormy and snowy weather in the Plains and Midwest. Dickinson, North Dakota turned into a winter wonderland with its first June snow in 60 years.

Kids usually have the shorts out and swing away. Yesterday they were searching for sleds in their hats and gloves as two to four inches of snow blanketed the area.

The picture above tells it all. The sun pops out for a few minutes but do not let it fool you. It should really be called "liquid sunshine". With plenty of moisture, lift, and heating of the atmosphere this fires up more rain showers and thunderstorms. It's like nature turns up the heat on a stove and our atmosphere is that pot of boiling water. It certainly boiled over yesterday. You can see how the sunshine quickly gave way to a sky that was almost as dark as night. Here is how it looked before I got on Interstate 95 yesterday.

I quickly put away the camera and then went through a torrential downpour. This low pressure if anything will slowly drift south and then southwest over the next couple of days. I do not think we will return to our more typical summer pattern in Jacksonville until Tuesday at the earliest but at this point we will just have to take it a day at a time as this storm has a mind of its own. This weekend here in St. Johns we have totaled almost one inch of rain and look for another one to two inches of rain before this system finally winds down by the middle of next week.

At least I did get to the ballpark with my two oldest daughters on Friday night and watched the Suns beat the Mudcats 5 to 2. It was their first baseball game and they had a great time. We sat near the field near the first baseman and that kept us all on our toes. We did not catch any balls but had a few close calls. We saw a few towering home runs as the wind blew out to left field. It was also Hurricane Preparedness Night and we got our tracking charts. That is what a great night at the old ballgame. Check back on the blog for a tropical update coming your way on Monday which does include a tropical wave in the Caribbean that is trying to get its act together. Nothing is imminent but it may be a sign of a named storm in June over the next couple of weeks. I am heading to a birthday party. Thanks for reading and take care. Do not let the rain wash you away!

Surviving a Trip inside a Whale's Mouth & Nature Will Be More Like Orca This Weekend

The storms came fast and furious today and I survived a trip inside what some meteorologists call the whale's mouth. The bright clearing to the right would be where the whale of a storm was opening its mouth. The sunshine further destabilized the atmosphere which fired up thunderstorms. The teeth of the whale are the wild looking clouds in the center of the picture caused by the cool winds of the gust front pushing up the warm and humid air. Remember the cool air is heavier and the warmer air is lighter. The far left side of the picture is the whale's belly or where the heavy rain shaft is located. Unfortunately we have a few more whales in the forecast this weekend as an area of low pressure stalls out over the First Coast. You need to pick and choose your plans carefully. I do think it looks like a great night to get out to the ballpark tonight. My best advice is to get outside while you can and check out that beautiful moon that will officially be full on Sunday. I will have a weekend update coming your way dealing with all the rain and beware of Orca! Also I will post pictures from a possible tornado that hit Georgia and I want all my Indiana friends to be on guard for severe weather beginning late Sunday night and Monday.

Thunderstorms Coming Sooner Rather than Later

We are going to do this all over again today with more showers and thunderstorms except this time they will be coming at us even earlier and even areas like Baker, Columbia, and Union Counties will see storms erupt by 10 a.m. and this will move into much of the Jacksonville area between 11 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. The beaches will be soaked by noon. Be on the outlook for more heavy downpours and some gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph. There could be isolated gusts near 60 to 70 mph like we saw yesterday near Brunswick that damaged homes and toppled trees. Here is the latest from the Storm Prediction Center as of 8:30 a.m. and even though we are not in a weather watch they agree we need to be on guard.

PROFILES WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND ONLY MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE... HOWEVER APPEARS AN ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUST REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

The atmosphere is a bit more unstable than yesterday and we had gusts near 40 mph in the Jacksonville area. Today with CAPES above 1000 and some morning sunshine that has popped up I do think the storms will be a bit stronger so do not be surprised to see a thunderstorm warning or two. We should see two waves of rain. The second wave will arrive again by late afternoon and early evening before we dry out for the Jacksonville Suns game. It is not just any game but it is Hurricane Preparedness Night and I look forward to taking my kids and seeing the fireworks afterwards. I will check back with you today and we will check on how many of nature's fireworks we can expect this weekend. I also have tons of cool pictures to share from yesterday's storms, including rainbows. There will also be a full moon update and a Saharan dust update and what it means for our tropical season 2009. I will also include an Indiana update for my Midwest friends.