Parade Weekend Features Santa, Wind, Cold, & Light Snow

Now I cannot control the weather but I am looking forward to doing something about it today! Head out to the COMMUNITY FAMILY RESOURCE CENTER on 4th Street in downtown Lafayette today where Stephanie Davis, Sue Scott, Niccole Caan, and I will help to distribute Coats for Kids. It takes place from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. Of course do not forget about the 5K YMCA Jingle Bell Run at 9 a.m. We have parades all over the area with the Monticello parade today between 1 and 2 p.m. The Frankfort Christmas Parade is at 6 p.m. tonight and the Lafayette Christmas Parade in Sunday at 2 p.m. Nature will continue to parade more cold weather along with wind and light snow in the forecast. Although Sunday looks half-way decent with lighter winds and some sunshine! Watch out for next week. We could have a big wintry storm in here by Tuesday and I am still favoring mainly snow. Here are a few maps below to keep you updated on things! Have a great weekend!



My kids and their friends were cooped up in our mini-van before the start of the parade last year when we had downpours of rain. Not this year! It looks much better even if we have to put on a few layers.


Will the storm track stay just to our south and east along the Ohio River? That is the question. Right now the model that hit our first snow really well 4 days before the fact is showing all snow for us and heavy snow at that. We will know more as we get closer of course but at least we are ready now for a big storm later Monday into Tuesday.

It is So Cold the Squirrels Need Sweaters & Owls Seek Shelter!

Okay you have a right to complain. It was very cold walking to the Purdue-Maryland game last night. I know I warned folks on TV last night, but after I got off the set I became one of those fans walking to the game and it really was a biting cold. Thank you Julie for getting me a ticket to the team I grew up watching. Maryland and ACC basketball is all I knew. It was great seeing the Terps again in person but I did cheer for Purdue and it did not even feel strange. I moved to Lafayette the year Stephanie White-McCarty led our Boilers to the National Championship and have adopted them as my favorite team and followed them closely ever since. I think the Boilers may have their best team since the late 1990s. They have a lot of talent and played really well as a team last night. The coaching was outstanding. Sharon Versyp was quite a find. The Boilers played a heck of a game and it was a lot closer than the score indicated. To be able to stay with Maryland for more than 34 minutes told us they are very close to being one of the top teams in the country and I do not think we will have to wait until next year. They were worn down a bit toward the end but you would be too if you just got back from Hawaii and then your body had to somehow adjust from 80 degree weather to wind chills in the single digits in just a couple days. Yes, it all goes back to weather. So I am even blaming the weather.....not the weatherman...LOL.

Great job Purdue! Tonight if you are looking for a way to stay warm you can go cheer on the women's volleyball team tonight. I love taking my girls to this and it is a blast going in person. Hockey and volleyball are right at the top of the list for the most fun sports to watch in person. The Boilers are the 10th-seeded team in the NCAA tournament and should have no problem exceeding expectations. Have fun while staying warm!

You know it is cold when apparently some squirrels were spotted with sweaters yesterday in Lafayette. This is our anchor Niccole Caan's Dad's favorite saying and I think it is really funny, but not too funny if you do not have a hat, gloves, and scarf. The anonymous picture sent in above is the most bizarre squirrel picture I have shown since the squirrel with the big piece of pumpkin pie I showed you back in January 2007. Just a few weeks later we had a blizzard. Will history repeat itself? Well I am not looking for a blizzard but a ton of snow. Now I do like snow but remember your safety does come first and you should be safer than most since you know I will give you ample warning ahead of any big storms. That is why I have been talking so much about this on the blog the last couple nights. I do care about you and the latest models are showing our first chance of a bigger snowstorm next week. Timing is tough right now but Tuesday we will have to watch carefully. At least we can monitor it together. We need to name these snowstorms that bring 3 or more inches so I will come up with a list for you by Monday. Feel free to find some names for me. You all always do a great job with that.


You know whoooo also thinks it is cold outside? That is right! Sir Featherton. This was the name given to the owl above who was outside Erna Jo Atkinson's house in Lafayette on North 26th Street last night. Sir Featherton apparently was looking for a warm place and for good reason. We have eye-popping cold that is for sure. As of 11 p.m. last night Lafayette was colder than parts of the north slope of Alaska. (More specifically thanks to Jim in Alaska... it is in east-central Alaska which is pretty far north) Nome, Alaska checked in with 19 degrees while we were at 18. Amazing! Nome doesn't even have any sunlight to work with like we do. (Technically, according to Jim they have 4 hours of daylight on their shortest day but in my book that is not much sun to work with) For all in tense and purposes they are in the dark until March! I want to thank Jim in Alaska for helping me clarify these points. I think Jim in Alaska should be our northern pen pal here on the Lafayette weather blog. I will try to see what I can arrange. Thanks Jim for writing in!! I am humbled and honored to have Alaskan reader!

Now back to the contiguous 48 states. You have a right to complain too Sir Featherton. Lafayette also felt just about as cold with the wind chill as International Falls, Minnesota known as our country's icebox. So were we the country's cooler last night? You could make a case. International Falls will be getting ready for -40 next week without wind chill with exploding trees. Here in Lafayette we could even see sub-zero weather as well in the next 10 days.

So we all know it is already crazy cold outside but it is only the tip of the proverbial iceberg. We have at least 4 big blast of cold air coming in the next 2 weeks and there are plenty of warning signs in the Pacific and Indian Oceans of enhanced convection and thunderstorm activity. I tell kids at school talks that meteorologists love watching those places far from home because if there is a flare-up in active thunderstorms or you have tropical storms or cyclones in the Western Pacific or Indian Oceans they can trigger changes in the jet streams or the high altitude winds that circle the entire earth. Sure enough look at all the action on the other side of the world. This is yet another warning sign for us.


This tremendous energy has to go somewhere. It usually feeds into the upper-level winds circling the globe causing big changes in the weather that can include storms, floods, and fires to fierce winter storms here in the United States and all over the world. There is a lag period. Notice the two tropical systems above that have arrows pointing at them....well they could eventually invigorate and shift the jet streams bringing a possible bigger storm to the United States in about 10 to 14 days which would be in the December 15th to the 19th range. We will see how it works out and time will tell. Check out the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's statement on the Indian Ocean cyclone (known as a tropical storm in the Atlantic).

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07B, LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 88.8E APPROXIMATELY
595 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
050030Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST OF
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVER CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 07B REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. DRIER AIR IN THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WILL MINIMIZE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TC 07B
AND KEEP ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL INTO SRI LANKA AFTER TAU 60 AND WEAKEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//

We will watch our jet streams carefully in the next couple weeks. I think
this whole set-up favors more of a tropical connection for us or more moisture
to work with the plenty of cold air we have in place. Remember the big picture.

The NOAA 8 to 14 day forecast seems to verify this nicely. 


You can certainly see this cold air will not be alone but have ample
moisture as well.


This weekend though I have nothing that will spoil any plans or slow you down.
There will be just a few snow showers with less than an inch of snow on Saturday. The Alberta
Clipper is tracking too far north this time around for much of anything.

I will be back with your parade forecast and tell you why the high in the 20s may actually
feel much warmer than that! I will keep our glass half full even if it does have a coat of ice on it!
Have a great day!

On Track for Our Coldest & Snowiest December in at Least 8 Years

The sky was on fire in Chalmers as Kandy Teel woke up on Wednesday morning. Great job Kandy! These high cirrostratus clouds were telling us another arctic front was on the way. Red sky in the morning take morning. It was also a sign that we are in a very busy weather pattern that is showing no signs of letting up anytime soon. Laura Hale also took heed of nature's warning with another inspirational shot of a memorable sunrise over Lafayette.


Why am I still up at this late, late hour? I do listen and watch for warning signs for nature and those pictures above are very telling of what lies ahead not just for this week but weeks ahead. Who can sleep at a time like this. I can tell you I love what I do but realize I am a bit crazy for being up this late. But I really do have a good reason. It is what lies ahead that has me burning the midnight oil or in my case singing 80s music while looking at the latest long-range models. I am cranking Abba and licking my chops over some of the most interesting data I have seen since WLFI was first to warn you about the blizzard of 2007. Yes! The stories I will have for my grand kids. You know it is good news for snow-lovers when I am singing. The key stat of the night is that we average 5.9 inches of snow in December. This year I expect us to triple that number. I like us in the 15 to 20 inch range for snowfall just for the month of December and we very well could have a season's worth of snow which is 22.4 inches if all works out like some of these models are telling me. If we were playing cards nature has a trump card or all the cards in place for not just a cold and snowy month, but a historic one. I have seen this coming since August and it is amazing that everything is in place. So far as we look at the almanac there really is nothing too impressive. Don't be fooled.


The first few days of December we have just under 2 inches of snow, but by next weekend we may already have more than a month's worth of snow. The Atlantic Oscillation remains negative, the North Atlantic Oscillation is negative, the Pacific North-American Teleconnection is positive and the MJO is heading into phase 7 which means a more amplified jet stream pattern that can incorporate more tropical moisture into the pattern as we head into the next couple of weeks. Thunderstorms are rumbling in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific and moving east. Watch out! So say goodbye to the nuisance snows we are having this week into this weekend. I am expecting at least 2 snowstorms of 4 to 6 inches or more and things will likely start getting more interesting for the "big one" next week and the rest of December. Here is the map I have been working on to show you just how much of an extreme turn this pattern could take. This is snowfall JUST for the next 11 days.


Do you realize even Louisiana could see snow in the next 2 weeks? This is not a pattern for the faint of heart. All areas shaded in white will have to be on the outlook for snow. I wanted to include Florida, but I could not do that to my dear Mom and Dad. The blue areas will likely have at least one big snowstorm and notice that does include Lafayette.

Now I am going to go have sweet dreams and we will go over more numbers. But for now I want you to digest these December numbers from 2000. This is one of the strong analog months or months from past years in which the weather pattern matches up very well with. I have been talking about this analog year here on the blog for at least the last couple of months. Those numbers don't lie! We need to get ready for real winter weather. We are no longer in the 1990s that is for sure.

             
   HI   LO  AVG        Precip. SNOW
1       35   30   33         0.11    1.0
2       32   24   28         0.00    0.0
3       34   18   26         0.00    0.0
4       36   21   29         0.00    0.0
5       36   14   25         0.00    0.0
6       26   15   21        trace    0.1
7       38   23   31        trace    0.2
8       35   13   24        0.00     0.0
9       34   11   23        0.00     0.0
10      44   30   37        trace    0.0
11      37   21   29        1.01     0.7
12      20    4   12        trace  trace
13      24    4   14        0.08    5.0
14      25    9   17        0.00    0.0
15      34    6   20        0.01   trace
16      39   17   28        0.07     1.3
17      17    3   10        trace    0.4
18      22    0   11        0.06     2.0
19      19    4   12        trace    0.3
20      20   -3    9        trace    1.5
21      23    2   13        trace    2.0
22       7   -5    1        trace    0.4
23      23   -6    9        trace  trace
24      24   -5   10        trace  trace
25      12  -12    0        trace  trace
26      19   -2    9        trace  trace
27      20   10   15        trace    0.2
28      16   -2    7         0.05    2.1
30      27    9   18         0.01    0.2
31      27   18   23        trace    0.1

         TOTALS FOR PURDUE AIRPORT
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   44         TOTAL PRECIP        1.40
LOWEST TEMPERATURE   -12         TOTAL SNOWFALL      17.8
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 17.8         NORMAL PRECIP       2.43
DEPARTURE FROM NORM-11.3         % OF NORMAL PRECIP    58

Officially here at the station we had close to 2 feet of snow. This data was from the Lafayette airport where most of us do not live. This is another example of how historic data cannot always be trusted at first glance. I will have much more coming up later today. Take care and be safe on some of those icy patches out there this morning.

Here Comes the Snow With Icy Roads by 10 p.m.

Here we go again! A quick inch of snow has already fallen from Peoria to just south of Rockford in Illinois and we should have about a 3 to 4 hour period of some moderate bursts of snow as temperatures fall below freezing here at home. Precisioncast is doing a good job showing this above. The green showing the rain area quickly change to blue or all snow by 10 p.m. This means it will stick quickly and become icy in a hurry. I think most of us could see a quick inch of snow with 1 to 2 inches north and west of Lafayette where it changes over earlier and this includes Rensselaer, Remington, Monon, and Francesville. Here is the latest update on the timing of things and snowfall below.
Another big concern will be bitter cold temperatures combined with wind gusts near 25 mph. This will drop wind chills to near zero tomorrow morning. So nature is hitting us with a little bit of everything and even if we do not have a big snowstorm on the board tonight, I am worried about big problems on the roadways late tonight and tomorrow morning. Please be careful out there.

Briefly Warmer Today Before Snizzle & Icy Roads Return

Our WLFI snowman is in jeopardy with most of our snow melting away today. Notice Adam Hall our videographer set up a snow television for our station snowman so he could watch his favorite channel and his one and only local television channel, News Channel 18. I am not on his good list after forecasting highs in the lower 40s today. It is too bad I could not find a train he could catch to the North Pole because by later today he may be all but gone. I will make sure to wrap him in ice cubes when I get to work later today. But he is made of December snow which we all know comes back to life when we get our next snow. Maybe I have been watching a few too many Christmas shows with my kids, but I still love them and there is no place I would rather be than with my kids by the Christmas tree watching holiday movies while eating popcorn. I absolutely love it! I may have to make up a nice bedtime story for my little Lauren about our WLFI snowman.


Tonight you may want to stay curled up under a blanket watching those timeless holiday classics because we have another coating of snow on the way or should I say snizzle or slush that will turn to ice. The snizzle is a snow and rain or drizzle combination so I gave it the name snizzle. I need to get the copyright on it! So our WLFI snowman will likely come back as the iceman and he will be the coolest dude in Lafayette. I will have to find him some shades. I will also have the latest on when you can expect all snow and when those icy roads will return make sure to check back. Notice I only have us in the half-inch range for accumulation tonight so iceman may be a little shorter, but that is okay. The big thing I am worried about is how just a little bit of measurable snow can cause huge problems on the roadways and the fact that wind chills may not be far from zero by tomorrow morning. Stay warm and safe!

Golden Snow Shovel Winner Ready for Pizza As Snow Front Sets Up in the Midwest

Here is a picture of our winner Amber Crider with yours truly! She really is not a huge fan of snow and cold weather so she was ecstatic that I had to get out there and shovel it instead of her. It was a sloppy, wet, heavy snow so I am relieved that there was only about an inch of snow by time I started shoveling. I do admit that I worked up a sweat and I made sure to also brush off her car that was full of snow. Amber was treated like royalty and said she just randomly picked November 30th for us receiving our first inch of snow of the season. Now that was one good guess, but it was also a smart one too! Usually Lafayette sees its first accumulating snow during the last week of November and she hit it big. Not only did she get to keep the golden shovel but Mad Mushroom will be providing her with a free year's worth of pizza. Pizza is one of her favorite foods and she said it will be the perfect thing she can eat this winter when it is nice and heated to help keep her warm so she could not be happier. Amber told me next year she hopes to make it two in a row and really liked the royal treatment. The one thing I could not deliver her was some warmer weather she was asking for but not everything is in my hands. I did tell her that once we get through December that January and February will be a breeze and Spring is looking like it will come early this year. Thanks again to our sponsor Mad Mushroom and for everybody that participated in the contest. Now speaking of snow. Here were the final snowfall totals from Saturday night through Monday night.


An incredible 7 inches of snow fell in Bloomington, Illinois with the northwest and southwest suburbs of Chicago receiving a healthy 3 to 6 inches of snow. The old saying I like to use this time of year is that snow breeds snow and sure enough I have the possibility of more snow on the way by Wednesday night and once again late Friday and Saturday followed by more snow chances next Monday and Wednesday. Once that snow pack is down storms like to form and move on its southern periphery where there tends to be a nice temperature contrast set-up by the colder snow cover and the much warmer temperatues found to the south. You get what I like to call a snow front that sets up and if you add an amplified jet stream to the mix it does not take much for a low pressure area to form and it usually loves to move right along that temperature boundary! Many times when forecasting with snow cover you need to lower daytime highs by at least 5 to 10 degrees and with snow cover and clear skies at night you can subtract even more. Here is a look at an impressive snow pack that stretches all the way to Arkansas!

This pattern is so cold throughout much of the country that even southern Georgia could wake up with a few snowflakes today. Now that is impressive! The jet stream is in a January position due to a huge ridge of high pressure out West continue to detour it into our backyards from the North Pole. The Arctic Oscillation which we have spoken a lot about here on the blog continues to be negative which means there is plenty of cold air re-charging in Canada and ready to move our way. So the two big stories will not only be the active storm track, but we will have bitter cold air moving in with highs only in the 20s by late week and I would be very surprised if many of us did not see single digit lows in the next week. Will this last the entire month of December? I will have your December Outlook here on the blog by tomorrow. Let's just say our chance of a White Christmas still remains 80% or above. Normally it is only a 50-50 proposition. Yes, a lot of bloggers and even I am celebrating this snowy pattern but it is very hard for anybody to enjoy this if folks do not remember to slow it down on area roads, especially this morning. Black ice will be problem. I am still amazed at how bad the roads were last night. We do not need any more slide-offs. We already met our quota for the winter in just a few hours yesterday evening. On a brighter note today we should not have to worry about any drifting or blowing snow like yesterday and it looks like we could see at least some sunshine! I do know the wolves really like this weather. Monty Sloan sent in some great shots of the wolves with a nice story. Enjoy and have a great day!

Hi Mike

Today I was photographing the wolves. I was tossing a few treats over to the island in their enclosure and a few dropped into the water. Kailani waded right in and – well as you can see, they just do not feel cold like we do…

- Monty -

Hazardous Roads Arrive With Meteorological Winter

The 231 Bridge sums it up....please slow down! Be patient and allow plenty of room in front of you.

I am checking in and wish I had better news. We have had a ton of slide-offs as temperatures have fallen to 28 along with wind and heavier bursts of snow. Be especially careful of the north-south roads tonight with gusty west winds blowing snow onto the roads creating icy spots. With lows dropping to near 20 the salt will not be very effective. Black ice will be an issue through at least tomorrow morning. Interstate 65 and its south bound lanes were shut down just after 6 p.m. due to a truck overturning and I have had calls that Union and State Streets downtown are basically sheets of ice. Just trying to walk outside is tough here in the WLFI parking lot. I did some more shoveling and put down plenty of salt. It is dangerous out there.

This is only the beginning of a very active pattern. You may want to buy an extra large bag of salt. I have been swamped in maps all day to make sure we keep you ahead of the storm or should I say storms. Take a look at a brief synopsis.

Ice threat by Wednesday Morning

More SNOW Wed. Night

Bitter cold late week

More SNOW Saturday

VERY COLD FOR THE CHRISTMAS PARADE!

More SNOW the following Monday

Happy Meteorological Winter that officially begins today and continues through February 28th. We are heading into our coldest 90 days of the year and it will certainly look and feel like it outside. The calendar at home may say December 21st is our first day of winter but now you know otherwise. Our calendars are not based on weather but astronomy. My favorite saying going into this winter is....WHAT HAPPENS IN NOVEMBER NATURE REMEMBERS COME WINTER...and it does look like we will be locked into a cold and snowy month. Our average snowfall of just under 6 inches should easily be surpassed and we may get both of our big snowstorms this winter in the month of December. Be ready and stay tuned. Things are looking very interesting. Here are some of the wonderful pictures sent in to get you in the winter spirit!! Thanks for all your support and be safe this winter!

I just thought I would pass along a picture of the exciting snow my one and two year old found this morning when they woke up! They were so excited to see snow, that it didn't matter there wasn't much of it! We did the best we could to make a snowman! Ha Ha Mandy Taulman 5th Grade Teacher Meadowlawn Elementary

Here is a Dog Snow picture.

This is My boy Dobby playing catch with snowball's!! This is fav thing to do!! :-)

This has been a fun day tracking snow! And you are right for a first snow we will

take it!! :-)

Justin New

Tyton says, oops missed the snowball or did mom do that to me??? Now here I am in front of this nice fire hydrent but is covered with snow!, Oh well got a go! LOL.

Thanks Mike warning of this snow event. Has been fun and is beautiful

Teri