Friday, May 15, 2009

YES! YES! I HAVE TURNED 40 AND I AM BAAAAACK!!



Can you hear the theme music from Rocky? I love you and miss you bloggers! The PRANG GANG lives! I first wanted to say that I celebrated my birthday on Thursday and I counted my many blessings which of course includes my family and wife Julie you see above! Notice we are all a little more tan than when we lived in Lafayette! This despite me putting on SPF 50 sunscreen. Believe it or not you can still get a dark tan with that on in the hot, blazing Florida sun! I have been wearing lots of hats instead of layers! What a change! We were even able to eat outside tonight for my birthday dinner! I lived it up with steak, shrimp, and Maryland crab cakes. The girls seemed more interested in feeding the fish some leftovers and they attracted some big trout! They did not see any alligators or manatees that sometimes frequent the area. It was a fun time in Ponte Vedra on the Intercoastal Waterway. That was some good eating!



I can tell you my family's blessings certainly include all of our friends back in Indiana. I know my girls go through dozens of texts a day from the weather hub of the country and I just got an I-phone so I can keep in better touch with you. Watch out, I can be dangerous with this thing! I have so many ideas...your seven day forecast may be coming to you in ways you never thought possible! I am working on providing video weather forecasts and will finally get more time for weather (no offense to the great producers of my past).

I will take it one day at a time as always! I know you will always be a part of me and it is inspirational to have life-long friends in the Midwest. We have a bond that will never be broken no matter where I live. We are all connected, especially when it comes to our world of weather! It should be fun writing to you again! I missed it so much! A beach and sand can only go so far. I have so much energy and am just ready to getting back to doing what I do best. I am a family man, marathon runner, meteorologist, blogger, and of course your bud!


Forecast Focus for North Florida

Let's talk some weather my friend! I will start telling you about the tropical twists and turns of Florida weather which may include a named storm ANA next week. Hurricane season may begin officially on June 1st but like in Indiana you keep your guard up no matter what time of year it is. I really will stick by my idea of an early start and finish to the hurricane season this year due to an El Nino quickly building in. As this takes place you tend to have more wind shear in the upper-levels and that tends to dimish your numbers of storms. But of course it only takes one ugly storm like Andrew in 1992 to make or break a season. That year was an El Nino year and even though it only had about a half-dozen named storms that category five storm made it a horrific season. So I try not to get caught up too much in forecast numbers of storms. It is all about location, location, location. Now next week's storm will be extra-tropical but it will try to gain tropical characteristics if it can make it to the Gulf where water temperatures are already near 80 degrees. This is the critical temperature at which tropical storms like to form. It should be interesting to watch it play out. Right now I would at least plan on the most rain in weeks for the First Coast. Hopefully you do not have any beach plans. It will not only turn rainy, but windy at least for the first part of next week. This weekend I would keep out the sunscreen and I know you will see me running and playing some frisbee on the beach. But that will change next week. It is easy to see why with all of that moisture forming in the deep tropics!
The satellite picture is firing up!



A lot of times in Indiana meteorologists look to Kansas and Missouri to see what is on the way. In Florida it is a totally different ball game with Cuba and even Puerto Rico sending weather systems our way! We had a severe thunderstorm go from the Airport and it drifted southwest toward Ortega before finally fizzling out. So instead of looking West many times meteorologists look to the East and Southeast to see what is coming our way in Florida. Storms and weather systems move clockwise around a semi-permanent Bermuda high pressure that only gets stronger as we head into the summer.

But you can even say this time around the tropics coming alive are a sign of a pattern flip-flop not just for us in Jacksonville but for the Midwest including Lafayette, Indiana! It should be a lot of fun as I tie in the tropical FLORIDA weather to the weather in the Midwest! The talk of the town here in the Jacksonville area was how some of us had not seen a drop of rain in over three weeks! I WAS HAVING SOME MAJOR METEOROLOGICAL WITHDRAWALS....but did like going to the beach and pool. :) Now it looks like the flood gates are ready to open here in Florida by next week with a pattern change favoring low pressure over the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. To compensate for this lowering of pressures and to keep things in balance it will help build up high pressure and heat you up in the Midwest that really has not had much in the way of any real warm weather. This will allow all the heat sitting out West to finally build to the East! First we do have more storms on the prowl in the Plains and heading to Indiana. This is the last of the gazillion (well not quite that many but it seems like it) systems to have impacted us. Here is the latest.

Forecast Focus for Indiana

1) Latest trends have front moving through in the middle of the night which would keep Lafayette's severe weather chances lower. I have a chance of a few pop up showers between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. but would NOT cancel plans with the bigger line of storms likely between 12 a.m. and 4 a.m. late tonight.

2) Upper-level dynamics once again favors severe weather farther west (this time Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma get hit the hardest)

3) Rainfall will be .50" to 1" for Lafayette with the big rains this time around hitting Chicago with one to three inches of flooding rain. We need to watch this closely but right now it looks like Lafayette dodges both the severe weather and worst of the flooding this time around.


4) Pattern change on the way next week just in time for the farmers to get out in the fields! The rains shift farther south including Jacksonville, Florida! While the hot and dry Florida pattern heads north into the Midwest. Preliminary numbers show plenty of 80s on the way!



Why have we missed out on so much severe weather in the Midwest and what will finally help us in Florida break out of our parched pattern? Take a look at this map. The answer does lie in the sea-surface temperatures that have made a dramatic reversal. These colors and numbers do not lie. We will also take a look at a ton of moisture building near Hispaniola and why our Sunshine state may need to be renamed the Soggy State next week! It must be Jazz Fest time in Jacksonville. Have a great day whether you are in Florida, Indiana or somewhere near Oz. I will have twitter updates on the storms and of course your weekend from Indiana to Florida at

http://www.twitter.com/MikePrangley


Developing...

11 comments:

Dena said...

Hello Mike! Happy Birthday and Welcome back to blogging! We do miss you, and I'm sure you would have loved the storms that passed through Indiana last night....Chad stayed with us until 3am, and from what I see from your postings, I think you were watching also....LOLOL....As far as turning 40, life is just getting fun! I am 43 and still feel like I'm 20 inside so that is all that matters!

Take Care and I'll send some pictures to ya soon!

Dena Flanagan

camden girl ;) said...

yeah! you're back! sorry i didn't get to say goodbye, but i was thinking of you last night when it was storming. alas, it wasn't the big scary storm i was HOPING for, but it was still a nice intro to spring thunderstorms!! seems like you're enjoying florida and happy belated birthday!!

jacki

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday Mike! we miss you!

Teri In Laf

Anonymous said...

Happy Birthday Mike! wow this is great! Thank-you so much for conutining blogging, I always read (dont post much but do read them) Have a great day everyone! Kathy

Anonymous said...

Hey, Hey!!! OMgoodness....so good to see Mike blogging again!!! HAPPY BIRTHDAY! Everyone looks so happy down there in FL. I MISS you very much but do know you are a happy man with your family. The severe wx waited for Chad, thankfully. And here are my fave bloggers, too! Dang, more storms on the way today. Welcome to Spring in Indiana.

We are slowly breaking Chad in, LOL.

Have a good one everyone!

MA in REM

Brow said...

Hey there! Yeah, the blogging and web is hard to get away from isn't it?

Glad you are back and enjoy that iphone you lucky dog...those things are super nice but I still cannot convince my wife that I NEED one. :D

Anonymous said...

Great to see ya blogging again Mike! :-)

Justin said...

MIKE!!!!!!!! :D You ROCK! Sooooo Glad you have your blog up and going again!! We missed you soooo much.

You Da MAN! ;)

We are ready to go here in Indiana with this next line of storms. I agree with what you say Mike! Not looking to severe with main threats being Lightning as with any storm. Heavy rainfall between a half inch to three quarters of an inch, and maybe a few winds gusting to 30 - 35 mph after midnight.

Looking like some of us could see a few scattered showers around 8:pm this evening in Indiana then the main front / line makes it's move on us around midnight or just after.

Mike it is nice to be able to keep up and follow your blog updates on FL, weather and the Prangleys! ;)

Justin In Lafayette IN,

Angela Huffer said...

Welcome back Mike. We miss you here in Indiana. Happy Belated Birthday!!!

katkandy said...

Michael Jay, What a great picture of you and Julie. Glad your blog is back and it will be nice to comment with the other Prang Gang whenever I can. It's nice to have 2 great weathermen in our corner. Please let us know how your job hunting goes. Miss you bunches!

KitKat

Anonymous said...

sure missed you last night during the aweful storms that went through here.....hard to get use to someone else...guess I'm not one for change....Take-care and God
Bless you and your family! Kathy