Our Perfect World Not So Perfect By Tonight

It has been a beautiful week and I do not like using that phrase in the past tense. It certainly looked like a perfect world out at Columbian Park as you see above. You see the floating fountain globe at the zoo entrance to the Columbian Park. It was a gift from the McAllister Foundation that hooks up to water and floats. The sphere rotates and even though it took a giant crane to move its seven thousand pounds into place you can actually control which way it spins with the touch of the finger. I made sure you could see Lafayette and the sun's reflection. This solid granite sphere was made in Germany. The German word for our Wednesday is die Gewitter. Unfortunately, our perfect world is not so perfect any more. That is right, thunderstorms are back in the forecast. Take a look at the latest severe weather threat from the Storm Prediction Center.


We are in a slight risk for severe weather. Timing is everything for tonight's storms. Right now our weather team is thinking the main threats will be 45 mph wind gusts, lightning, and heavy downpours. After being lambasted in June with the most storm reports we have seen in one month since May of 2004. That was also a La Nina year. But this time around I do not see any big severe weather outbreak. The big difference will be the La Nina jet stream that spawned so many big storms in June is well north of us. The second big thing is our cold front will not arrive until the middle of the night so I do think most of our storms will occur after 10 p.m. and in some areas after midnight. This means our atmosphere will be more stable. Our lifted index will drop from an outrageous -5 at 1 p.m. to -2 when the storms arrive. Our CAPE will go from 2,100 at mid-afternoon to a more manageable 500 by later in the evening. Here are a few foot notes to help you along.

Lifted Index:
+3 to +1: Slightly Unstable, chance of showers

+1 to -1: Unstable, expect showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
1 to -3: Moderately Unstable, supports widespread thunderstorms

-3 to -6: Very unstable, widespread thunderstorms that may be severe

< -6: Extremely unstable, widespread severe weather

CAPE

500-1000 J/kg: Thunderstorms are possible

1000-2500 J/kg: Moderate thunderstorms, possibly severe

>2500 J/kg: Severe Thunderstorms likely

These numbers are only guides and should not be taken literally, just like our weather models.

We will watch everything carefully and our weather team will be ready if anything changes. Remember, the earlier the storms pop the worse they will be. But right now it looks like most of our thunderstorms will be after 10 p.m. tonight which should keep our storm reports to a minimum.

But if you want to see a real storm here is a great video sent to us from Iraq. This is a follow-up to some earlier pictures I showed here on the blog a couple weeks ago sent to us from Jason in Iraq.

This is a video taken from the same sandstorm that I sent pics of in May. Keep in mind that this is noon time.

Jason Jones

Thanks Jason! We will all be thinking about you and all those serving our country throughout the world over the 4th of July holiday. Pass on our best to all those serving with you! It is because of you we can celebrate and be proud as Americans. Happy Birthday America!

If you look closely at the beginning of this video you see a flash of light. This is actually lightning induced by the sandstorm. Lightning not only forms with thunderstorms, but sandstorms, volcanic eruptions, and even forest fires. A couple weeks ago a forest fire caused a severe thunderstorm to form in North Carolina. It is amazing how dark it turned at noon in Iraq. It looked about as dark as a cave. The forecast for Iraq this coming up weekend will be no sandstorms, but plenty of heat. Lows will be in the lower 80s and highs between 105 and 110. The good news Jason is the bone dry relative humidity of about 10% will make it more bearable. Stay cool and we cannot thank you enough for all you do. Please keep in touch and thanks for the outstanding weather video!

Closer to home our whole 4th of July forecast will not be as hot as a firecracker like it will be in Iraq, but cool as a cucumber! The big question mark will be if we will receive any rain. It all depends on this cold front you see above and how far south it moves. Right now it is looking promising as it should settle down near Evansville by Friday morning, but I am skeptical of all fronts this time of year that just love to stall over us. So far things are looking good! What can possibly go wrong? A whole lot so make sure to tune in tonight to view the latest on our storms on Live Doppler 18 and of course your big 4th of July forecast!