Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Our Perfect World Not So Perfect By Tonight


It has been a beautiful week and I do not like using that phrase in the past tense. It certainly looked like a perfect world out at Columbian Park as you see above. You see the floating fountain globe at the zoo entrance to the Columbian Park. It was a gift from the McAllister Foundation that hooks up to water and floats. The sphere rotates and even though it took a giant crane to move its seven thousand pounds into place you can actually control which way it spins with the touch of the finger. I made sure you could see Lafayette and the sun's reflection. This solid granite sphere was made in Germany. The German word for our Wednesday is die Gewitter. Unfortunately, our perfect world is not so perfect any more. That is right, thunderstorms are back in the forecast. Take a look at the latest severe weather threat from the Storm Prediction Center.


We are in a slight risk for severe weather. Timing is everything for tonight's storms. Right now our weather team is thinking the main threats will be 45 mph wind gusts, lightning, and heavy downpours. After being lambasted in June with the most storm reports we have seen in one month since May of 2004. That was also a La Nina year. But this time around I do not see any big severe weather outbreak. The big difference will be the La Nina jet stream that spawned so many big storms in June is well north of us. The second big thing is our cold front will not arrive until the middle of the night so I do think most of our storms will occur after 10 p.m. and in some areas after midnight. This means our atmosphere will be more stable. Our lifted index will drop from an outrageous -5 at 1 p.m. to -2 when the storms arrive. Our CAPE will go from 2,100 at mid-afternoon to a more manageable 500 by later in the evening. Here are a few foot notes to help you along.

Lifted Index:

+3 to +1: Slightly Unstable, chance of showers

+1 to -1: Unstable, expect showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm
1 to -3: Moderately Unstable, supports widespread thunderstorms


-3 to -6: Very unstable, widespread thunderstorms that may be severe


< -6: Extremely unstable, widespread severe weather

CAPE

500-1000 J/kg: Thunderstorms are possible

1000-2500 J/kg: Moderate thunderstorms, possibly severe

>2500 J/kg: Severe Thunderstorms likely

These numbers are only guides and should not be taken literally, just like our weather models.


We will watch everything carefully and our weather team will be ready if anything changes. Remember, the earlier the storms pop the worse they will be. But right now it looks like most of our thunderstorms will be after 10 p.m. tonight which should keep our storm reports to a minimum.

But if you want to see a real storm here is a great video sent to us from Iraq. This is a follow-up to some earlier pictures I showed here on the blog a couple weeks ago sent to us from Jason in Iraq.




This is a video taken from the same sandstorm that I sent pics of in May. Keep in mind that this is noon time.

Jason Jones

Thanks Jason! We will all be thinking about you and all those serving our country throughout the world over the 4th of July holiday. Pass on our best to all those serving with you! It is because of you we can celebrate and be proud as Americans. Happy Birthday America!

If you look closely at the beginning of this video you see a flash of light. This is actually lightning induced by the sandstorm. Lightning not only forms with thunderstorms, but sandstorms, volcanic eruptions, and even forest fires. A couple weeks ago a forest fire caused a severe thunderstorm to form in North Carolina. It is amazing how dark it turned at noon in Iraq. It looked about as dark as a cave. The forecast for Iraq this coming up weekend will be no sandstorms, but plenty of heat. Lows will be in the lower 80s and highs between 105 and 110. The good news Jason is the bone dry relative humidity of about 10% will make it more bearable. Stay cool and we cannot thank you enough for all you do. Please keep in touch and thanks for the outstanding weather video!




Closer to home our whole 4th of July forecast will not be as hot as a firecracker like it will be in Iraq, but cool as a cucumber! The big question mark will be if we will receive any rain. It all depends on this cold front you see above and how far south it moves. Right now it is looking promising as it should settle down near Evansville by Friday morning, but I am skeptical of all fronts this time of year that just love to stall over us. So far things are looking good! What can possibly go wrong? A whole lot so make sure to tune in tonight to view the latest on our storms on Live Doppler 18 and of course your big 4th of July forecast!

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dang, that is great news Mike! I thought that it was going to be a wash-out for the 4th...but its looking good.

So we just have to grin and bare it through tonight and looks like we should have a good weekend to look forward to.

Lets hope that cold front holds off until later tonight so everything stays calm.

Good morning everyone and excuse me as I inject my caffeine and get to work.

Anonymous said...

WOW!! I noticed the lightning and was surprised to see it! I did not know (see, you can learn something every day if you are paying attention, LOL) that sandstorms, etc can induce lightning! I hope many watch that video. I can't imagine being in something like that. How high do winds get in a sandstorm such as that?

UGH...storms at night again. I hate that when i can't see the sky. Oh well, will depend on Mike and the bloggers to keep me apprised.

Have a GREAT day!

MA in Remington

Anonymous said...

That was an amazing video and we think we have it bad!

More storm on they way, darn! I am like Mary Anne, I worry with the night storms for you cant keep an eye to the sky! Tonight I will have my wx radio right next to me, and of course, following the blog.

All enjoy this beautiul day, for this evening and tonight could be scary :-(..but from what I read this is a fast moving front thank goodness! Hope that is correct.

Mary Anne, Justin and all the great blogger, might be seeing you here tonight!

Teri In Lafayette
Teri in Lafayette

Anonymous said...

Well looks like we got more storms to deal with is everyone ready?

Just remember we get through this storm and hopefuly we can enjoy the 4th.

MA teri and bloggers looking forword to all you being on here later as well.

I got my sleep last night hope all you did as well because my map's have us in the strong storm's till at least 12:00am or 1:00am.

So for now enjoy your day and I'll see you here later tonight.

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

WOW WOW! Those poor people, that is a frightning video.....God Bless our troups!

Anonymous said...

I have to say Im glad the storms are coming in late tonight because right now my weather forecaster has are temp at 87.4* and a heat index of 90* and still going up.

So I hope they come in like forecasted around 10:00pm or
11:00pm.

Again see you all here later.

Justin in Lafayette.

Anonymous said...

Looks like the storms in the west are not moving fast. but with the temps and humidity still bothers me.

Anonymous said...

Just noticed the update:

Forecast Focus: Main line of thunderstorms holds off until after midnight for most of the viewing area. This will limit the number of strong thunderstorms.

It also states that most will be north of Lafayette...dang, that means me in Monticello? I will be tuning in tonight for updates.

Yep, the 4th forecast is looking way better than it was earlier this week.

Are we all still on for everyone at Justin's house for the big cook-out and firework display timed to trippy music? :)

Anonymous said...

I just heard the news about the fire in C'Ville! Those poor animals at the pet shop. Glad its going to storm tonight, would rather that then the selfish nieghobors who kept us up the last 2 nights till 3:00 am setting big boomers right over our house. mother natures light show and boomers are just that, mother nature! Not some man made fire hazards!that should be not be allowed!

Anonymous said...

Ya nice try brow LOL... :)

Justin in Lafayette.