Happy 4th of July! Our "Staycations" Look Mainly Rain-Free

Contrail clouds over Lafayettte as nature paints the sky with some red, white, and blue!

Happy Birthday America! The big day is here and it is also a big day for all meteorologists. It is like our Super Bowl. Sometimes it feels like you are calling the "Hail Mary" play when you forecast a mainly dry 4th of July weekend. That is because it is one of the toughest times of the year to forecast. You think my three daughters give me gray hairs. Try forecasting in Indiana during the big 4th of July weekend forecast. It is a good thing I love challenges. This year is an even bigger challenge because most folks are staying close to home with the high energy prices. How do you think I run marathons? Nature toughens me up that is for sure and through lots of preparation and I will keep a close eye on Live Doppler 18 and all the new model runs throughout the weekend. So why is it anything but a holiday for meteorologists?

There are many reasons. Here are the top two. It is the time of year when we have cold fronts that stall out over the Midwest. This happens because those cool pushes of air from Canada are usually not strong enough to push the warm and humid air too far south. The sun angle is too strong and it helps to build these stagnant tropical domes of air. To move these hot domes totally out of our weather picture is like trying to push a bowling ball with a feather. Be skeptical and worried about all cold fronts trying to pass through our area this time of year. We all remember the 10 inches plus of rain that hit our area during the 4th of July holiday back in 2003! The second big challenge is that we have pop up thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with all of the heating taking place. These thunderstorms are sometimes less than 2 miles wide in diameter but if they are in the wrong place at the wrong time your nice fireworks forecast can become a forecast farce in a hurry.

At least Justin New sent in a picture of nature getting this big weekend off on the right foot. It is a good sign for us. I do think we will see more contrail clouds from planes than nature's nimbostratus or cumulonimbus clouds that bring gushes of rain this time of year. I think our best chance of rain over the weekend will be this morning and once again by late Monday as more heat and humidity build into the region. I will be brave and call for good fireworks weather tonight at 10 p.m. throughout the entire area. It will be comfortable with temperatures in the middle to upper 60s and only a slight chance of a shower.

The news gets even better! I see brilliant sunsets and sunrises this weekend due to our upper atmospheric flow coming from the northwest and pushing smoke particles our way. As the sunlight passes through a thicker layer of the atmosphere near the horizon it scatters out the longer wavelengths of orange and red. Nature's beautiful display can turn dazzling if you have particles like smoke, dust, or ash in the atmosphere which are bigger than the air molecules. This will cause the sunlight to be scattered even more and it turns the red colors into crimsons and orange colors into a fiery sky. You will be amazed at how much smoke is in the atmosphere. I shaded a lot of gray on the national map to depict this. The raging fires out West are bad, but the worst of the fires believe it or not are up in Canada and this upper-level smoke is expected to move our way.

Now this upper-level smoke should not spoil our "staycations" which is the term we are giving to all those that have canceled their plans to travel long distances this year and stay closer to home due to those high gas prices. Looking for ideas? Well, yesterday I had the pleasure to meet The Atiso family who were our wlfi.com contest winners. We rewarded them with plenty of great food catered by DNR and Parretts, greased watermelon races, and even carriage rides out at Historic Prophetstown. I took a snap shot of the carriage ride. Those Belgian horses are certainly beautiful.

The Threshing Show will be going on out at Prophetstown this weekend with plenty of great things for the kids to do including camping.

Today make sure to tune in for the latest. Brian has you covered this morning and I will be babysitting Live Doppler 18 this evening. I leave with a picture of Tropical Storm Bertha. This is the big dog storm that will probably just maintain its intensity close to 45 mph winds over the next few days. But we will have to watch it closely by later next week and weekend as some maps have it curving toward the Carolinas. This is a definite sign of a busy season. I will have more on this here on the blog in the future. With parents in Jacksonville, Florida you better believe I will. Have a safe and wonderful weekend.