Trillions of raindrops unleashed today! Hurricane drought now becoming a bigger concern!

Thursday, June 30, 2011

What a day it was yesterday. I tried to mention as many folks as I could during our weather. We need a local weather channel, no doubt about it. It was amazing showing your only Live Doppler Radar showing heavy thunderstorms over most of the area with an estimated 1,620 trillion drops falling from the individual thunderstorm cells. That is a mind-boggling number, and it is amplified when you consider a few of those thunderstorms yesterday stalled. This means neighborhoods around Ed White High School were swamped with 3 inches of rain in as little as 40 minutes. It was a gush of rain that folks have been waiting for since last year when the drought settled in. Roadways like Cassat Avenue and Normandy Boulevard turned into rivers.

Today once again thunderstorms will have plenty of moisture to work with and lift thanks to an old frontal boundary moving in from Georgia. It will have no problem ringing out a trillion rain drops or more per storm.  In St. Marys, Patty Crosby has a pumpkin patch that is producing an early, enormous pumpkin especially for this time of year! Now we know why! I am ready to celebrate with some pumpkin pie!

The good news is the cloud cover we are having this morning not only helped me on my run but it will stabilize our atmosphere enough that there is less than a 10% chance of any severe downbursts or wind gusts of 58 mph or greater. Lightning and lowland flooding will once again be our main threats on our Thursday afternoon. Lightning is not causing new wildfires anywhere close to the rate we saw last week thanks to some areas now close to 8 inches of rain for the month which includes the Okefenokee Swamp and Espanola!

We still have quite a few burning although the number is less than half at what it was and once in awhile we have a new one that pops up like we saw in Woodbine, Georgia yesterday captured by Nichole. Thanks for sending that in. So bring on the rainfall nature! We need more especially in Keystone Heights, Mandarin, Julington Creek and the beaches! We still look to be drying out this weekend and heating up so it is crucial we get more rain and of course I will keep you updated.

Last but not least in the tropics our rainy pattern is not being influenced by Arlene which has made landfall in Mexico as a tropical storm this morning. But the rainy pattern impacting us actually helped give birth to the first named storm of the season in the Atlantic.

This brings us to our PRANG FACT of the day. We all know about the rainfall drought that is finally improving, but there is also another drought in Florida many have not heard of. It is a hurricane drought! Since Wilma hit Florida as a category 3 back in 2005 we have had no hurricane strikes! This is one of our longest hurricane-free spells on record for the Sunshine State. Remember 40% of all hurricanes that form in the Atlantic hit Florida. That number is more impressive than the trillion rain drops! Secondly we should have had at least 4 hurricanes hit Florida since Wilma in 2005. WE HAVE HAD NONE! This is just how lucky we have been and as we all know it is not a matter of if but when the next one strikes and it will likely be sooner than later. It still looks like South Florida and the West Coast of Florida have the highest risk this year. You stay safe and cool. Have a great last day of June and be ready for another swoon, especially if you love rain! I will see you soon! Thanks for reading and take care.

Drought to Deluge Pattern Continues for 2 More Days

Wednesday  June 29, 2011
Blog update for Wednesday evening:

In this pattern we have been able to set our watches to the storms each day since late last week. They fire up by late afternoon and then die out in the evening. But tonight a front moves south from Georgia which will help generate a few more scattered showers and thunderstorms even during the overnight. Storms will linger well into the evening. Lows will be in the lower 70s. The main threats will continue to be lightning and ponding of water on the roadways. This is a picture of Lane Avenue this afternoon and is a good example of why you will need to slow down and be careful of hyrdoplaning. I just got a rain report of 2 inches at Normandy Boulevard in only 30 minutes! These storms are just not moving much!

Tropical Storm Arlene has 60 mph winds as of 6:30 p.m. and will hit Mexico tomorrow afternoon as a weak hurricane. Hurricane Warnings have been issued along the Mexican coast. It will be known as a flood-maker. Its moisture could eventually bring some much needed rain to New Mexico and the US Southwest.

Blog update for early Wednesday afternoon:


Numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again form along the Interstate 95 corridor and slowly drift south and east. The beaches once again will see some needed rain and they need it. While Jacksonville has officially had its first above average month for rainfall since February, areas like St. Augustine have only had half their monthly averages.

The good news is the beaches will at least be able to play catch-up tonight. The wind speeds all the way to 36,000 feet are less than 5 mph so any thunderstorms that do form will be very slow-moving and have the potential of producing 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals. Driving will be hazardous with hydroplaning a big concern.

Be on the outlook for dangerous lightning and we still cannot rule out a 45 to 60 mph wind gust as a frontal boundary interacts with our heat and humidity adding additional lift to the atmosphere.

We need to squeeze out as much rain as we can because we will start drying out as soon as Friday and especially over the 4th of July holiday as high pressure builds in bringing a drier air mass. It will also turn hot with some areas not far from 100 on the 4th! Yes, it will be as hot as a firecracker!

Atmosphere remains juiced up with more rain on the way!

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

We are loving the rain and I can gauge this based on the very kind thank you e-mails, including homemade granola that was waiting for me at work at 3 a.m. on Monday morning! Thanks Lori! It was the first time I have had it and it was outstanding! I was also relieved that it finally rained in St. Augustine and after talking about those poor folks for most of my 11 p.m. weathercast on Sunday night that is one forecast I am glad I got right. I feel like a big boulder has been lifted off my shoulders. At my parents house in Mandarin on the other hand....it has been a different story. I better bring flowers before our dinner tonight! But for most of us and yes I know you need more rain Green Cove Springs.... I guess I can take a little credit for the huge turnaround in our weather pattern but remember I certainly do not control the weather. I ordered this rainy pattern up late last summer! Better late the never.

Thank the dewpoints that are once again in the lower 70s this morning. This is telling us there is a ton of water in the atmosphere ready to be squeezed out again and there is no stopping this process with lower pressures in place and sea breezes on the way! Dewpoints are the true measure of humidity and it feeds thunderstorms this time of year. It may make it uncomfortable outside but this lighter air has a much easier time rising and eventually it cools, condenses, and releases even more heat helping cumulus clouds turn into cumulonimbus clouds or thunderstroms in as little a 20 minutes. Yes, the atmosphere is juiced up! Look for king cumulonimbus to return today. Here is another picture of the King of all clouds sent in from Hilliard.

Since last Friday I was concerned that with this stormy pattern emerging severe weather would come with the territory and we certainly saw that again yesterday in Hilliard. It was the second consecutive day they had numerous trees down and even some roads blocked. This picture was sent in by Jenny in Hilliard and it looks like the sky was falling. This shelf cloud produced 60-70 mph wind gusts. Today we will have to keep our guard up for more strong storms and once again Nassau County could see not only the rain but rough weather. I am out of the office today but am compiling a ton of weather data since true meteorologists never are "off". The weather is always happening. Here are a few stats to help you through the day.

-Thunderstorms will be slow-movers again so more rain amounts in excess of 2 inches could fall in less than 40 minutes like we have seen. Watch for lowland flooding. Storms will drift from the northwest to the southeast.

-The highest values of instability today are in Georgia and storms that do form could produce more isolated wind gusts of 60-70 mph along with dangerous lightning.

-In Florida the highest chances of severe weather will be right along the Georgia border including Nassau County. The Storm Prediction Center agrees and shows the trend. The farther north you go the higher your chances of severe weather today.

The areas in yellow and red will have the highest chances of severe weather due to a front coming from the north causing more convergence in the atmosphere. This front will bring plenty of widespread severe weather for areas from Macon, Georgia through Oxford, Mississippi. Here at home severe weather will be more isolated today with areas from Waycross to Alma and Jesup being with the highest severe weather risk.

This storm front will continue to move south bringing us more good rain chances through at least Thursday and it could enhance our severe weather chances farther south in Florida by tomorrow so we will keep an eye on it!

The tropics are active but anything that forms in the Bay of Campeche will quickly move into Mexico by late week.

Our pattern will likely turn much drier and hot this weekend so we need to squeeze out as much rain as possible. I do not think this will be another extended dry period which is good news for the wildfires. Officially this is our worst fire season since 2001 when about 400,000 acres in Florida burned. Right now we have had just over 200,000 acres scorched. But fire season has already peaked! We can now focus on the TROPICS! Some long-range maps are looking very interesting in the 10 to 15 day period.

Have a great day! Off to my workout and I want to thank Dan from Ponte Vedra for sending this great picture to me. This should make your day! There was no stopping our sunrise this morning even through a few distant storm clouds! A sunrise is a gift from God and puts everything into perspective.

Less smoke, better air quality and more welcome rain on the way!

Monday, June 27, 2011

It is nice to start off this week without smoke making it tough to breathe or see. Visibilities should remain over 5 miles in all locations first thing. Over the weekend more needed rain fell in most locations and where we needed it most with 2 to 4 inches over the Espanola Fire and another inch of rain in the Okefenokee Swamp.

Today we still have all the ingredients in place for more rain. The dog days officially do not begin until July 3rd but the weather map is showing a lazy hazy pattern. It is a what you see is what you get pattern as the main jet stream stays well to the north in Wisconsin and the dry high pressure ridge that caused our drought to become extreme over the Spring remains west of the area. Portions of Texas are experiencing their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Amarillo hit an incredible 111 degrees. Closer to home it will be hazy, hot and humid but a more bearable lower to middle 90s. With lower pressures in place and temperatures falling quicker than normal with height expect more welcome rain today. Thunderstorms will impact 50% of us today. This includes St. Augustine and other spots like Mandarin that missed out on most of the heavier weekend rain. Once again a few of the storms could turn severe with damaging wind gusts the main threat.

The tropics are still active but there is only a slight chance of tropical development this week. A tropical wave may try to develop in the Bay of Campeche but it does look like what develops will be weak and move into Mexico due to the strong high pressure over Texas. Here at home we may not be getting much help with the rain from the tropics but I did put together a 10 day forecast showing that at least scattered rain chance are in the forecast almost every day.

I am concerned we do dry out late this week and over the fourth of July holiday with temperatures of 95 to 100 but this looks like a brief 3 day dry spell rather than 3 months of praying for rain. We will have to watch this closer because if this dry spell lasts only a day or two longer the wildfires could once again become a big problem. But for this week I do think we all notice it will be much easier to breathe and the needed rain will be the big story. Just keep your guard up the strong storms. Have a wonderful and safe day!

Lightning alley ignites with more rain than new wildfires

Sunday, June 26, 2011
Technically lightning alley runs from Tampa to Titusville where about 100 thunderstorm days per year. Here in Jacksonville we see our fair share of lightning with an average of about 70 thunderstorms per year. Florida is the lightning capital of the the US. We have a ton of heat, moisture and lift to work with thanks to being on a peninsula, our latitude and the collision of two seabreezes that take place. Today we live up to that reputation with more collisions at the surface and at 40,000 feet between ice crystals. Look for more electrically charged clouds to move our way. The blog question of the day is which country averages the most thunderstorm days per year. Take a look at the NASA map above. Impressive! The title has to go to Rwanda in Africa that has an incredible 300 days per year with thunderstorms. Kifuka, Congo has the most lightning strikes per square kilometer per year.  Columbia and Venezuela are next on the list followed by Pakistan and then Florida. So really we are sixth in the world in lightning. The place with the least amount of lightning is the Arctic Ocean and Antarctica but their atmosphere is charged up with the aurora.

Today get ready for more cumulonimbus clouds. A special thanks to Larry who captured this scene at St. Simons Island on Saturday evening before about 1,500 lightning strikes moved through the area. There was also a 60 mph wind gust reported on Jekyll island. The big news was a good portion of Camden County had a one to two inches of drenching of rain as outflow boundaries to the north helped to trigger thunderstorms. Farther south there were reports of one to two inch rains in Putnam Country through northern Flagler County which included areas over the Espanola Fire! So while many areas to the north missed out on rain at least it is falling where we need it most. Here is yesterday's rainfall map.

The areas that were missed yesterday in a strip through portions of southern Bradford, Clay, and the heart of St. Johns County will likely see better chances of heavier rain today. Notice our latest Future Cast model. It shows the heaviest rain today south of Interstate 10 with mainly late day and evening storms which could once again prompt a few warnings for gusty wind and hail. A drier slug of air is moving into Georgia but we cannot rule out an evening storm that could be strong especially up near Waycross.

It eventually all evens out! It really does and the hit and miss nature of our rain is normal. The good news is even though we had a lot of lightning last night with storms they are not igniting as many new wildfires as before. Remember we were seeing about a dozen new wildfires per hour during the worst part of this fire season about 2 weeks ago. Now we are seeing just a handful of new fires that have broken out this weekend according to the Division of Forestry that are small and quickly contained. This is because our soil now has more moisture to work with. The latest KBDI index which measure soil moisture no longer has desert pink over us like I showed you on the blog last week. Check out the much better news!

The scale runs from 0 to 800 based on the top layers of the soil moisture and really anything in pink is desert dry. The red areas are still critical and that is why this forecast is so important. Due to the high evaporation rates, if we only go 3 days of having dry weather the situation could once again ramp out of control with the wildfires once again. The good news is the drought-inducing high pressure will continue to park over Texas this coming up week allowing our sea breeze collisions to take place. There will also be a few disturbance dropping our way along with another frontal boundary by late week. So we have a lot of positives! Every single day there will be storms to track on Live Doppler Radar, especially in the afternoon. Let's keep it coming. It is already made a big difference! It sure is nice to see those blue skies again over Mandarin thanks to all the rain we have had! Here is a nice shot sent to us from Mike Lyons this morning.

You have a wonderful day and make sure to have your First Coast News weather app handy again today!  It has your two minute advantage and I do several video updates on there to keep you ahead of the storm. Be safe and do not get complacent with the lightning. More folks are killed in Florida by lightning than any other weather phenomenon. While it is nice we are getting the needed rain the dangerous lightning and strong storms here in Florida also come with it. They don't call us the lightning capital of the US for nothing.

Sunshine State turns Cloudy with Storms Firing up South of Jacksonville

Saturday, June 25, 2011

What an unusual sight in the sky this morning! There were stratus clouds. Florida is not living up to its Sunshine State name but I am not complaining because I did not have any reports of smoke to share on Good Morning Jacksonville. Air quality for Jacksonville was actually in the good range! There still may be a few spots downwind of the bigger fires in southeast Georgia and Nassau County with some smoke issues but it will be nothing compared to what we have gone through the past couple weeks! Visibilities should remain above 5 miles and not fall to less than 1/4 miles! We can breathe again! I actually got my first summer run in outside thanks to the nice change in the pattern. I will never take breathing fresh air again for granted. Today for the first time in two weeks nature will help us with another issue, the heat! Many areas will only have highs in the upper 80s all the way to the beaches!

The stratus clouds out our window were formed from a plume of  moisture we can trace all the way back to the Pacific Ocean this morning and the amazing part is that this moisture was part of what once was called Tropical Storm Beatriz. In the Atlantic we still have not had any named storms yet and I think the area to watch over the next week will once again be in the Pacific. There is a tropical low that I am tracking near Belize this weekend but I have this system staying near land and moving into Mexico next week due to a strong area of high pressure to the north in Texas. So Arlene which will be the first named storm this year in the Atlantic will likely not be forming or knocking on anybody's door anytime soon. Unfortunately I do not see us getting any more help from the tropics this coming up week but things can change in a hurry and I do think the tropics will be more a friend to us than foe as the season goes along. This week we can thank a Midwest front for tapping some of what was left with Beatriz and today I think we will see more clouds than sunshine. Scattered showers and storms will pop this afternoon but do not cancel plans. The rain will only impact about 20% to 40% of the area. Here is the latest breakdown for you.

Unfortunately if we are going to get out of the drought the strong storms come as part of the package. We have had some severe weather to go along with our rain but today I see a more stable atmosphere here close to home due in large part to all those unfamiliar clouds. We may still see a few wind gusts near 45 mph and small hail due to colder air aloft. But nothing too bad. Here is a shot of wind damage that hit the west side of town and western portions of Duval County on Thursday.

This looks more like a scene from the Hoosier state of Indiana not Florida but it goes to show you that you do not need tornadoes to have signficant damage. Wet microburst or strong gushes of air from the top of 50,000 foot thunderstorms can gain a lot of momentum by time they reach the ground causing a lot of damage. Here are the latest Futurecast graphics supporting me. Notice I do not see the bright reflectivities that are indicative of strong storms for our Saturday.

Look to the north and northwest today that is where our rain is moving from and it will drift south and southeast. I think most of the rain should be south of our entire area by 8 p.m. Keystone Heights is asking for more rain and I do think that would be an area with at least better chances to see a nice soaking storm this afternoon. The farther south you go the better chances of rain. You can see it is the time of year where rainfall amounts can vary in a big way. This is normal and it usually evens out over the long-haul.

Notice it is the story of the haves and have nots. The 48 hour rainfall shows some bare patches with .10" or less for areas of Columbia, Baker, Bradford and Union Counties. The good news the heaviest rain we have had has been over the Okefenokee Swamp and the Espanola fires with some spots reporting between 3 to 5 inches of rain since Wednesday! In Jacksonville I know a lot of folks in Julington Creek, Mandarin and even Orange Park are wondering where their heavier rain has been. You see the heaviest of rain has stayed from downtown Jacksonville northward into Georgia. The beaches have done well with an average of .50" to 1" of rain.

This is a start and at least the ground is not as tender dry so that when we do get these thunderstorms they will produce more rain than new wildfires. The fire count should continue to fall. I wish we all lived at the airport. Jacksonville International Airport is now reporing 5.08" of rain compared to the monthly normal of 4.23". This would be the first month with above average rainfall since February! AMEN! If you have missed out on the rain do not panic. I see another 2 to 4 inches over us coming the next couple weeks which is still above average. Keep those umbrellas handy. Have a great weekend and make sure to check out our free weather app you can download by searching FCN WX! I will do several video updates for you to keep you updated on the storms, you can also get your exclusive local 10 day forecast I update every morning and evening as needed, and most importantly your 2 minute advantage to keep you ahead of the storms.

Your only Live Doppler Radar sure came through big time this week. You can see why with this amazing storm picture taken yesterday in St. Augustine. Thank you Athena Masson! Remember warnings are not issued with lightning and if you hear the thunder roar outdoors head indoors. Also wait 30 minutes after hearing the last clap of thunder before going back outside. Stay safe and have a great day!

Jacksonville Electrified! More strong storms on the way!

Friday, June 24, 2011

More welcome rain is on the way! The atmosphere is still juiced up and full of plenty of moisture to work with. Showers and thunderstorms will re-develop by mid to late afternoon for most of us. While we are excited about the rain remember your lightning safety rules and like yesterday a few storms will go severe with some isolated wind gusts near 60 mph. Highs will be in the lower 90s and like yesterday the storms will move from in from the south and west.

We have scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend but I would not cancel plans. Rain coverage will not be as widespread and no all day rains are expected with most of the rain in the middle and later part of the afternoon. It will be hot and humid with highs back in the middle 90s.