Florida's most tornadic week in 3 years briefly turns tame

Saturday, April 2, 2011

This picture from the National Weather Service near Tampa sums up Florida's roughest weather week outside of tropical storm Faye since March of 2008. On March 7, 2008 we had about two dozen tornadoes in Florida located mainly across the First Coast including southeast Georgia. Unfortunately there were two fatalities in Lake City. This time around the brunt of the severe weather hit Central Florida where there was more instability. You see this complex of apartments was turned into what looks like a damaged doll house by nature. Notice a few trees around the worst of the damage are standing unscathed which happens many times during tornadoes around their wind vortices. Wind estimates place this tornado as an EF 1 with wind speeds near 100 mph. It was one of a staggering 9 tornadoes reported across the Florida peninsula this week based on the latest data. In all Florida ended up with 117 storm reports. This included 97 wind reports with wind gusts of 58 mph or higher, 11 hail reports nickel-sized or bigger, and the 9 tornadoes. To show you the magnitude of the storm, Tampa and southwest Florida known as Florida's tornado alley see about 6 to 8 tornadoes per year and they saw that in only two day this week.

Here in the Jacksonville and St. Augustine area we are counting our blessings with only minor and isolated damage in St. Johns County as wind gusts near 61 mph hit areas from highway 207 and Interstate 95 eastward to the beach. There were some trees down and about 250 power outages in all but the good news is everybody is safe and sound. We had a few pea sized hailstones that fell here in downtown Jacksonville that I stored away in our freezer. Yes, if you work at First Coast news please do not use this as ice in your drinks. Use the ice in the ice tray please!

Yes, your only live radar did a great job being the first to show the storms that quickly intensified near St. Augustine. Today your only radar without delay will make your day! In the wake of this wild weather today looks terrific with partly to mostly sunny skies with highs near 80. The good news is 80 degree weather should go all the way to the beach with a west wind holding back those cooler sea breezes at 10 to 20 mph. The Taste of St. Augustine looks delectable in more than one way!

Boaters can loosen those big knots on the boats. There will be a light inland chop and no advisories. It was also a rough boating week so we have certainly earned this smooth sailing weather. Seas will only be at 2 to 4 feet with the four footers located well offshore. If you are heading to the Clay County Fair or the Blues at the Beach the blue skies will be a perfect compliment! This past week was like an April Fool's joke that would not go away but nature finally gets it right and here is why.

You can thank high pressure in control for the nice sunny change and it is good to see our old friend which is our most common weather maker in Florida throughout the year coming home for at least a couple days. But it is April and the pattern is moving fast so this is just a quick visit. Check out the howling jet stream across the country.

This is what I call a highly amplified progressive pattern. Here in Florida the peak of our tornado season is February and March but it continues into at least the first part of April. Many times we have to watch these strong polar jet streams carefully. They tend to energize our thunderstorms and can turn them into super cells or mesocyclones which we saw this past week in a hurry. These super cells are known to produce large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. The timing at this point looks like it will hold off until after the weekend for us here at home. This storm system will be so cranked up we could at least tie a record high of 90 on Monday in its warm sector. You see the jet stream starts igniting the atmosphere as soon as late Sunday. The yellow shaded areas can expect an outbreak of severe weather.

We will have to keep our eyes to the sky. Our latest weather team model runs are showing this being easily the biggest severe weather outbreak of Spring for the USA. It will impact at least 150 million people across no fewer than 20 states. It will be a quick-moving system and will impact us here on the First Coast Monday night into Tuesday so make sure to stay tuned and I will have numerous updates for you on the tube and here on the web. See you soon and enjoy the nice weather while you can. I will also post the big rains from this past week and have a drought update for you!

Tropical breezes blow in severe weather threat

Sunday, March 27, 2011

You can almost smell the rain in the air. Yes, this morning we woke up with most areas in the lower to middle 60s and with the warm tropical breezes it even felt a bit humid. We have been more like the Sahara Desert here over the last several weeks so it was a noticeable change. You combine the added moisture content of the atmosphere along with a strong cold front to our north and it should be enough to fire up at least a few showers and thunderstorms across the northern tier of our area this afternoon and evening. We will have to keep our eyes to the sky because the Storm Prediction Center still has areas from the Georgia-Florida border northward in a slight risk for severe weather. You see the graph I made shows the main threats being lightning and wind. Let's take a look at why.

It's back! The sub-tropical jet stream is helping to juice up our atmosphere and we can trace this powerhouse jet all the way back to the Pacific Ocean. So not only will we have Gulf moisture to work with but Pacific moisture. These tropical winds are not only providing ample moisture but increasing the wind shear over our area with hurricane force wind speeds at 30,000 feet over us. This energy can sometimes be transferred down to the ground in the form of damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes. Now timing is everything and right now here is the latest.

One thing to note is that most of the thunderstorm activity will stay north of Jacksonville and look to the west because I think that is where most of the storms will be moving from. So if you have big Sunday plans today, I would not cancel them. It still looks great if you are going to the UNF or JU baseball game. Even in southeast Georgia, the storms should be widely scattered and hold off until late afternoon. So just stay alert to changing weather conditions and remember if you are out and about you can follow your only Live Doppler Radar with our free weather app, at firstcoastnews.com, and on television. Yes, we have extended the 2 minute advantage to all media platforms to keep you and your family safe. I will also send out text alerts as needed.

This front has several waves of low pressure rippling along it and is parallel to the strong jet stream I showed you. So as a result it will be slow-moving and only 30% of us should see rain today. Georgia will have the best chances of strong storms and rain. Tonight with increased humidity I cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two for Florida. You see our RPM model shows some bright reflectivity moving toward downtown Jacksonville after 9 p.m. But for most of the day it looks great and enjoy our nice warm highs in the middle to upper 80s. You see Monica Landeros has already sent in a very nice shot of the Intracoastal Waterway at Vilano Beach to verify the forecast. Thanks Monica!

If  you are boating, there will be a moderate inland chop developing this afternoon with a southwest wind at 15-20 knots. Out over the ocean it does not look bad at all with seas of 2 feet near shore to 4 feet well offshore. Have a great day and yes everything is still on track for all of us getting in on the rain next week, especially Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. Next weekend looks drier based on the latest European model run. Temperatures will remain warm and primarily be in the 70s throughout next week. I look forward to seeing you tonight and we will zoom in on any storms that do form. I will also post your 10 day forecast on here for you with this busy pattern ahead make sure to check back!

Feeling more like summer for our first full Spring weekend

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Another big weekend is here and we are having a blast on Good Morning Jacksonville. You see all those smiling faces in Mrs. Napier's kindergarten class I visited this past week. We actually did a thunder experiment and talked about severe weather safety. It looks like nature will eventually make its own thunder in this forecast. These wonderful and smart kids actually did some advanced math with me to understand how weather forecasts are put together (usually kindergartners and I just count cricket chirps together to come up with the temperature, but they were ready for much more) They are lucky to have such great teachers and are now taking a well deserved Spring break. It does look the kids will have plenty of good swimming weather this weekend as temperatures today will be in the middle 80s in Jacksonville to the upper 80s in the normally warmer interior locations near Interlachen.

It is perfect weather for the Mud Run which will be human-made that is for sure out at the Jacksonville Equestrian Center. This run benefits the Multiple Sclerosis Society of North Florida and waves of teams and runners begin an adventurous journey starting at 9 a.m. and that cooler mud will feel good as we quickly heat up! The beaches will even get in on the warmth with highs closer to 80 degrees after a chilly Friday that saw most areas on the sand stuck in the 60s. This thanks to a southwest breezes will hold the sea breeze at bay until later in the day. The ocean water may only be in the middle 60s but pool temperatures around the area are now in the more comfortable lower 70s! On Sunday actual high temperatures will push well into the 80s to near 90. But this pool weather will not last through the entire Spring break and you can see why.

A huge pattern change is taking place due to unusually cold air for this time of year being pushed much farther south than normal. Washington, D.C. has its annual Cherry Blossom Festival this weekend and it will feel more like a Winter Fest. On top of all that they may have to get out the snow shovels on Sunday! Yes, winter is still kicking. At the same time this forces our polar jet stream or main storm track moves farther south and the sub-tropical jet is coming alive for the first time since February. This is the last time we saw any meaningful rain. You combine this with a stalled frontal boundary next week and we have all the ingredients for some needed rain. Talk about rain check this latest model just out! Nature will be holding its own mud run!

The very latest model runs as of this morning are showing 1 to 3 inches of rain on average across our area next week. It is hard to believe our seven day forecast is showing rain chances 6 of the next 7 days! Our last heavy downpours occurred way back on February 10th and since then we have a rainfall deficit of almost 5 inches. This was after we built up a huge surplus of over 5 inches through the first part of January and February. So right now yearly rainfall is slightly and I mean slightly above normal. Keep in mind next week will not be a total washout for your Spring break plans. So all parents including myself can take a deep breath. But we do have good chances of rain for most of next week especially on Monday and once again by late Wednesday into Thursday.

We will also have to be on the outlook for a strong storm or two. This after all is still our severe weather season and so far we have been very lucky. We were already doing some storm tracks this morning near Atlanta live on the air. This is a valuable tool our weather team uses to give you the latest and most accurate weather and I hope you will use it too! Make sure to stay tuned and go our web-site if needed tomorrow or our weather app which is updated 24/7 without delay! By later tomorrow we could be tracking storms with strong wind gusts as close to home as Waycross and Brunswick. They will move to the east southeast so they may even impact areas of far North Florida especially north of Interstate 10.

In the short term, a red flag warning is in effect for most of the area once again today due to breezy and dry conditions keeping our fire threat on the high side. Thick smoke will be likely at times for portions of Clinch and Ware County and will drift from southwest to northeast. Motorists are advised to keep their headlights on even during the day in these areas especially traveling on US Highway 1 and US 84 and 82.

We will keep you updated with your only live doppler radar. In the meantime, remember the sunscreen and to reapply the sunscreen. Today's UV index is a 10 which is the highest of the year. We will have a burn time in as little as 20 minutes.

I will be back this evening to take a closer look at Sunday's storms and help time out next week's rain for  you. I look forward to seeing you. Thanks for reading!

Smoky Sunny Friday could turn Stormy by late Sunday

Friday, March 25, 2011

Plumes of smoke are easily seen on this visible satellite picture in southeast Georgia. Be careful traveling in Clinch and Ware Counties. Keep those headlights on even during the day especially near Highway 1 and Highways 82 and 84. Smoke in Florida should start to thin out with an afternoon sea breeze after some reports of ash fall that I actually saw here in the downtown area. It looked a bit like the flurries we had back in December. The ashes were very tiny but keep in mind if you have any respiratory ailments and smell smoke or see ash, area doctors are advising you to stay indoors until the air quality improves which may not be until later this afternoon for Florida. But if you are in southeast Georgia I do not think you see much relief until next week.  Despite, the smoke, I am talking about a winning forecast!

 

Okay the station tour with the Mandarin Girl Scouts is in the books and I always get even more fired up while doing the weather knowing I have a live audience. You see Joy and I with our future which is bright! Thank you for making my noon show a ton of fun girls! What I explained to them is that it is a WIN( fire relief), WIN (pollen relief), WIN (drought relief), WIN (weekend looks dry and pleasant for most of us) forecast. We finally have heavy amounts of rain back in the forecast and the timing will be impeccable at least for most of this weekend. Although most of the girl scouts are on Spring break next week and it may play havoc with at least some of their plans. But they understood we really need the rain and they agreed it was a WIN, WIN, WIN, WIN forecast. By late Sunday I do think a few of us will see rain and that will be in southeast Georgia. I cannot rule out a strong storm or two so make sure to check back for updates and of course make sure tune in throughout the weekend with yours truly on Live Doppler radar! Have a great day!

Red moon at night leads to a Spring delight!

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Just in case you missed it....yes the super moon lived up to the hype. This picture was sent in by Donna Deegan at Jacksonville Beach and this was not enhanced or doctored up. This is how it actually looked as it rose over the Atlantic Ocean last night. The deeper red color than normal was a sign of just how dry the atmosphere has been over the past few weeks. We are now running about 2 inches of rain below average now for the month of March. Great job Donna! This looked more like a picture of Mars or a lunar eclipse...just unbelievable! What happens is that when you are in a drought like we are it allows particles, aerosols, pollutants, and dust to build up. The moon's light that is already having to travel through more of the atmosphere near the horizon now has those longer wavelengths of light scattered and refracted even more by those atmospheric nuclei thus enhancing the moon light's deep colors! Yes, we were bedazzled without a doubt. Here are a few more pictures. Thank you so much for sending these in! Enough of the superlatives. I will let these pictures do the talking.

Thank you Rusty Gardner of Fleming Island. This is certainly one of my favorites!

Angel Santiago showing the Hart Bridge and St. John's River all lit up! Great job!

Thank you Amanda on the West side and yes it looks like it was the best side to pick up the moon's glare. This looks more like the sun.

Thanks Cindy Owens! Vilano Beach is one of my favorite places to get away from it all!

Awesome detail Tim Rucci! The moon over Jacksonville at 8:23 p.m. Please teach me to take pictures like this!

Last but no least...most of the country did not have crystal clear conditions like we did here at home. The talented Richard Beedle in Indiana comes through again and shows us that despite a thick stratus canopy of clouds there was still no stopping the bright moonlight...not on this night that will be a memorable one! Notice the trees there are budding. Yes, happy Spring everybody and thanks for the pictures. You do not need a super moon to keep sending me great weather and nature pictures. Keep them coming and send them in to weather@firstcoastnews.com. Thanks so much for sharing! This is what makes blogging and my job so much fun!

Now today is another big day for all us weather enthusiasts! It is the vernal equinox which means Spring officially begins at 7:21 p.m. Equinox comes from a Latin word meaning equal days and equal nights. Spring arrives when the sun's direct rays reach the equator. The tilt of the earth gives us our seasons and as the earth continues to orbit around the sun the Northern Hemisphere will bask in those direct rays and longer days with summer not far away on June 21st. Yesterday we had a taste of summer across the area as Jacksonville tied a record high of 89 degrees! It hit 90 in Palatka and Folkston. The pool was the place to be that is for sure. Even though most pools do not open until next Friday you see the kids were having a good time swimming and staying cool!

Today our summer bubble bursts with cooler Spring breezes developing but it will still be comfortable with temperatures where they should be for this time of year. Highs will be in the middle to upper 70s. The one thing missing from our forecast once again though is Spring showers. I only see a slight chance of rain and any rain showers that do pop will be brief at best and likely confined to coastal areas. Make sure to tune in tonight and I will have your Spring forecast! It will be nothing to sneeze at like the pollen which is once again through the roof today. Can we look forward to some Spring showers on the increase? I do see better rain chances but not until next week into the first part of April. I will let you know why a pattern change is on the way at 11 p.m. and have your one and only 10 day forecast. See you soon and Happy Spring!

All eyes on the moon and record high temperatures! They will bedazzle you!

Saturday, March 19, 2011

Here was the scene this morning at First Coast News. It was a moon 99% illuminated but I did notice it was brighter than normal full moon or not. Jason Thomas was kind enough to bring his camera to work and take this great picture. Please send in your moon pictures tonight so I can share them on the air and here on the blog! Thanks ahead of time. Our main anchor Len told me he could not believe the moon was not full this morning and he almost got out the sun shades it was so bright! You have not seen anything yet. This evening we will have 100% moonlight and 100% clear skies. Moonrise is at 7:51 p.m. The latest models do not show clouds moving in until after midnight. Check out the latest super moon synoptic map!

Yes your weather map is showing why it will be a picture-perfect for all the moon gazers. High pressure will still be in charge keeping the cold front and clouds to our north. Think of this as our local heat pump and the key to the forecast not only for tonight but today. The clock-wise flow around our fair weather friend will bring more of a west wind and hold back the cooler ocean breezes until late today. This means get ready for some sizzle. We will not only have bright sunshine but near record high temperatures. The record for this date is 89 set back in 1963. I see Jacksonville reaching 87, but there could be a few unofficial record highs for inland locations. Here is the latest forecast highs from where you live!

Since many inland locations reached the upper 80s yesterday I was not shy to talk about our first 90 degree readings of the year on the way for areas like Palatka, Keystone Heights and the Bethea State Forest. Orange Park you will be an orange-throw away from the big nine zero. Notice even the beaches will warm up nicely into the lower to middle 80s. The sea breeze will be holding off until late afternoon. The fishing weather looks awesome with seas remaining at 2-3 feet even well offshore and a wind shift to the northeast late at 10 to 15 knots. Good luck to the world's best bass fisherman out in Palatka today! Last year our first 90 degree reading in our First Coast viewing area was not until May 1st! Today we certainly will have a summer day on the last day of winter! You can always jump into the chilly pool or ocean if it gets too hot for you. Pool temperatures are running in the mid to upper 60s while the ocean is still in the lower to middle 60s. Speaking of the water I did tell you I would keep track of the tides this weekend since we do see higher and lower tides than normal during a regular full moon. Now with our closest full moon since 1993 here is the latest.

Yes, we usually do not have any beach erosion concerns until the tides run from 1 to 1.5 feet above normal according to Chief Meteorologist Tim Deegan. Actual flooding concerns to roads usually do not take place until we are running 3 or more feet above normal. Tim is a wealth of information and I appreciate him teaching me all the little local phenomenon or micro scale meteorological tips that add up in a huge way. We are truly a weather team and it makes a huge difference on and off the air! We would have been more concerned about erosion and flooding due to the tidal pull of the moon if we had a big nor'easter bearing down on us. But I see no big storms within a thousand miles of us!

Now if you are looking for Spring weather I do have plenty of that in your forecast. Spring is quickly closing in and low and behold I do have a Spring front showing up and moving through the area by late tonight.

This front is a backdoor cold front coming off the Atlantic Ocean. We all know that wind the wind switches off the ocean this time of year nature can turn the calendar back a couple months and this time around that is no exception. Highs will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler on Sunday. Now we do need the rain and even though you do see plenty of green on this model run I am thinking only a select few will see any. Make sure to tune in tonight at 6, 6:30, and 11 for the latest on the haves and have-nots on rainfall and a much tougher fishing day on the way for Sunday. See you soon and have a great day!

Strange start to our full super moon weekend but here is your survival guide!

Friday, March 18, 2011

Happy Friday and yes it was a bit foggy this morning with even a fog advisory needed for Palatka and Putnam county due to visibilities reduced to under a quarter mile. You see the view from the bus stop this morning. We also had an eerie looking moon with a wild-looking fog ring around it. Yes, the early bird has plenty to wake up to and more when it comes to nature. The good news is the radiational fog this morning was a sign of this outstanding weather pattern continuing into the weekend. High pressure is in control and it allowed nature to reach its saturation point. It will also allow us to heat up into the middle 80s today! So we have nothing to be scared about when it comes to fog. Just slow down and use the low beams. How about this weekends much ballyhooed moon. Some say it may bring crazy behavior and wild storms along with devastating earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Now I am not saying this and there is a lot we simply do not know...so I did the best I could and  after further research through my 10,004 almanacs I have pack-ratted away since a young age, here are the facts. Consider this your survival guide to the super moon weekend of 2011.

What is amazing is the moon will not officially be full until Saturday at 2:10 p.m. It sure was bright this morning! I picked some weeds out of the garden before daybreak! Yes, a first! The moon of course will not get bigger but appear about 15% bigger due to an optical illusion. It will in fact appear 30% brighter. It is the brightest moon really since March of 1993. Now a lot of folks have heard a lot of rumors about the impending doom this moon is expected to bring. I am thinking the only thing it will bring is a romantic, breath-taking beautiful picture-perfect view. Get the cameras ready and yes find a loved one to share it with! You realize that this is being called a super moon. What is that? It is a new or full moon that occurs when the moon is at 90% or greater to its closest approach to earth. Yes, the sun, moon, and earth are all lined up so this causes tides to be a little higher and lower than normal. But right now the impact on our tides looks minimal especially with a west wind on Saturday. Sunday we will have to keep a closer eye on the tides but for now I think we are okay.

Here is the bottom line that will help you breathe easier this weekend. Most folks do not realize that we have about 4 to 5 super moons every year whether it be in the new or full phase occurring close to perigee (the moon's closet point to earth in its orbit). In other words, this super moon phenomenon is common and it really should not be called a super moon as a result. What makes this super moon a little different is that its orbit is taking it slightly closer to the earth. I looked up natural disasters, storms, earthquakes and even volcanic eruptions during these times of super moons and even extreme super moons like this one and there is absolutely no increase in disasters I could come up with. Yes, there is more pull on the earth and we are floating on liquid magma, but I found that global calamities occur at about the same rate or just as often during a traditional old-fashioned moons, blue moons, super moons, and even extreme super moons. The ground hog is right more often than those forecasting all these gloom and doom scenarios.

So I say make those plans with that special someone right now...but wait, what about the apparent earthquake that rattled parts of St. Johns and Flagler Counties this morning? It must be the super moon, right? Wrong. The latest is that it was not a confirmed earthquake and based on folks I talked to that had their windows rattle a little it sounds like military jets caused all the raucous this morning. Here is an earthquake map from the US Geological Survey to back me up.

You can also click this link for more information to see things more clearly. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsus/ The only earthquake that occurred this morning took place in Arkansas and it was so minor that most folks in the Arklatex did not even feel it. So here at home we are once again home-free of worry. So this brings us to our second blog question of the day. How safe are we from earthquakes on the First Coast? Meteorologist Steve Smith was kind enough to compile some research for us.

What was interesting is that we did have an earthquake here in Jacksonville that folks felt on September 10, 2006. Did you feel it? Steve and Chief Meteorologist Tim Deegan did not feel it. So it was very minor and only felt near the top of the taller buildings. But do realize that Florida has its share of minor earthquakes and Tampa has minor tremors several times a year. Most earthquakes in Florida occur near Destin, the Pensacola area and in Key West. There is a major fault line that runs right through Cuba. There is another active fault line about 300 miles west of Florida in the Gulf of Mexico where a magnitude 5.8 earthquake occurred back in 2006. Swimming pools sloshed back and forth near Tampa and Lakeland and a few dishes and windows broke. No damage was done here on the First Coast. Amazing huh?

Here are some other earthquakes of note here at home:

January 12, 1879...Two severe shocks about 30 seconds each was felt from Fort Meyers to Tallahassee, and from Jacksonville to Daytona Beach with the earthquake epicenter near Keystone Heights! No major damage was reported nor was a magnitude given. St. Augustine did report what sounded like a distant freight car with some reports of cracked windows and dishes.

August 31, 1886...Charleston, South Carolina was devastated by a strong earthquake and it caused church bells to ring in St. Augustine. Wells that were dry started to flow again and water in Lake Jackson was said to disappear!

September, 1886...Jacksonville reported several after-shocks likely associated with the major Charleston earthquake.

October 10, 1900...this was the closest epicenter I could find to Jacksonville because its coordinates have it located at present day Arlington! It was once again a small one but was felt as far away as Lake City.

November 13, 1935..the Palatka earthquake caused people to run from their homes. No damage just a bit scary that is all.

So there you have it....now we can all focus on enjoying a wonderful weekend of spectacular weather! Spring officially begins Sunday evening. I will have more on this here on the blog over the weekend along with a check on the tides and why I think we will have two seasons all in one weekend. We could even challenge record highs on Saturday!

Make sure to join Len and I on Good Morning Jacksonville Saturday from 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. We always have such great and interesting guests thanks to producer Anne Roy who is very happy her Notre Dame Fighting Irish won today. I am ecstatic about my Purdue Boilermakers thrashing their first round opponent. Make sure to also tune in for some more weather fun at 6:00, 6:30, and 11 p.m. I will set the table for your big dates and plans on both Saturday and Sunday evening! I will give you 100% and a reason to watch every show. I pride myself on making it interesting and with our Florida weather that is not tough to do! Thanks for reading and all your support. You are the reason I am always smiling on camera! I truly am blessed.