If You Don't Like the Weather Just Wait a Few Minutes!

Saturday November 12, 2011

What a morning it was! Many areas away from the water had a heavy frost that looked like a light skiff of snow. No snow but it was cold enough for snow as Jacksonville International dropped to 31 degrees which smashed the old record of 33 set back in 1987. Our average low is 52 for this time of year! We were colder than Burlington, Vermont and felt more like New England this morning! You see Jeff sent in a great picture of his Macclenny thermometer and the frosty moon (name given to the November moon by Native Americans). It certainly lived up to its name.

You see that the frost was so thick on windshields that you could write FROSTY! But for those that think it was too early this frost was actually about normal for this time of year. I guess you could make a case it was about a week early, but for interior Georgia and Florida it was actually about a week late! If you still think it got too cold too soon I have the perfect forecast for you! I will use the ol' New England saying that if you don't like the weather just wait a few minutes! We will jump 40 degrees today and I think many areas could actually reach 70! Stock up on the vitamin C. That has to take a toll on the human body! The same dry air mass will mix with sunshine and up those temperatures will go faster than the hot air balloon you see ready to take off in World Golf Village this morning where they had a low of 40 with no frost.



So it will be a great day and pleasantly warm after all! We have two seasons in one day and it will feel like autumn again even by noon when temperatures should recover into the middle 60s.

I wanted to thank everybody for the great pictures and numbers sent in to our e-mail at weather@firstcoastnews.com and on our Facebook Page. I love e-mails and sharing weather pictures. Please keep them coming! Notice many of our weather watchers were even colder than the airport including 28 at Baldwind, Middleburg, and Oakleaf. The beaches were warmer as expected with lows mainly in the lower to middle 40s near the water that is still in the middle 60s.

The coldest spot I could find was the Osceola National Forest and John Bethea State Forest where a couple thermometer reports came in at a nose-numbing 23 degrees! Wow!! The good news is I have cancelled the hot chocolate advisory for the rest of today and you may need the short sleeves and lemonade to stay cool out in the 70 degree sunshine this afternoon! Make sure to remember the sunscreen. We are in a fast-moving pattern and I still think we could be well into the 70s Sunday with no more frost to worry about. The 80s return Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week with record highs possible and thunderstorms by later on Wednesday. So that is right! We will have a taste of all four seasons over the  next 7 days! Get out the shorts and bathing suits and then stay tuned for a few frisky storms on your only Live Doppler Radar. Our wild ride has just begun especially when I am tracking not one but two jet streams! We will talk more about this here on the blog and on the tube tonight at 6, 7, and 11 p.m. I will also let you know why I am not expecting another frost until after Thanksgiving! Have a great weekend! Stay warm and cool!

Beautiful Parade Today, But our First Freeze and Frost for Many Tonight!

November 11, 2011

What a gorgeous day it turned out to be! This is more than a wild roller coaster ride nature has us on. We honored the Veterans by covering the parade at First Coast News and I had a great time bringing my three daughters to work with me so they could understand today is more than just a day away from school. They did gain more appreciation so it was a successful day and also enjoyed the bands, waving to the veterans, and some of the fancy floats you see above! They started off in their warm jackets but by the end of the parade my daughters were back in their short sleeves. Temperatures started at 52 degrees and by the end of the parade it was a pleasant 62 degrees. Even Joy Purdy had to take her heavy coat and scarf off! But do not put your warm weather gear away by any means! These wild temperature swings are a warning sign that the big chill is yet to come! It is being brought to you by a very dry air mass that originated in Canada and it will feel like Canada late tonight and first thing Saturday morning.

Here are my forecast lows around the area. Note the darker blue areas have frost advisories and interior St. Johns and Flagler Counties will even get in on some frost even if they are not in an official advisory. The lighter blue areas are freeze warnings with some of the colder spots dipping to freezing for 2 to 3 hours by first thing Saturday! The official record low for Jacksonville is 33 set back in 1987. I think we have a good chance of reaching that by late tonight!

Make sure you bring in the pets and protect the sensitive plants especially away from the river and ocean. Notice some areas of interior Florida and Southeast Georgia from near Waycross will be below freezing and we are not talking about the wind chills. These are actual air temperatures.

Temperatures over the ocean and St. Johns River are still in the middle to upper 60s so that is why you see lows near the coast holding in the 40s from St. Simons Island to Fernandina to Jax Beach, Ponte Vedra and all the way down to Flagler Beach. But once you get away from the water that still holds all of that heat from our summer season notice how temperatures plummet to near freezing in Woodbine right off Interstate 95.

Now if this is too cold too soon for you it is okay! You can still smile like the sunshine. What a incredible shot captured by Jonathan Copeland!! This was a summer scene and we have summer breezes back in the 7 day forecast! I will have more on this over the weekend! See you soon! Stay warm and have the shorts ready! Make sure to send in your frosty pictures to weather@firstcoastnews.com! Don't forget the pets and plants!

Fantastic to Freezing in Many Areas by Saturday Morning!

November 10, 2011

What a beautiful day it turned out to be! You can give your regards to Tropical Storm Sean that will pose no threat to any land areas. It slowed down our weather pattern just enough for us to squeeze in one more nice warm day! It officially hit 80 in Orange Park. It also provided surfers including Chief Meteorologist Tim Deegan with ideal clean lines of 5 to 7 feet plus. He is still smiling! I have a big grin too because we have a great weather pattern for meteorologists! Check out what the strongest cold front of the season is going to do to our temperatures!

We will free fall nearly 50 degrees between now and Saturday morning. If you look closely you will see the kids all bundled up in the background with hot chocolates. Not only do I have a hot chocolate advisory in effect but our first frost and freeze of the season is on the way by Saturday morning. You will really start noticing a difference this evening as the winds kick up and the temperatures start to plummet. If you are heading to the fair dress warmly as temperatures fall into the 50s but wind chills will be in the 40s. This front will not bring much rain. I think most of us stay dry and those that do see rain, it will not be enough to wet the pavement. But this front will make up for its lack of moisture with our coldest temperatures of the season. Keep in mind by morning it is a good thing many kids are off tomorrow. Wind chills will drop to near freezing. If you are taking your kids to the Veterans Day Parade like I am make sure to get out the red, white, and blue winter gear with temperatures only expected to be in the middle 50s with a north wind at 10 to 20 mph making it feel much colder! When and where will our actual freezes occur? Here are the latest freeze watches. 

The official freeze watches are for all of southeast Georgia west of I-95 and most of North Florida away from the river and ocean. Keep in mind western Putnam and Clay Counties could also see a heavy frost and freezing temperatures. I am expected teeth-chattering upper 20s from Jasper to Waycross. Near 30 from Gainesville to Starke, Mcclenny and Nahunta. Temperatures will hit 32 from Keystone Heights and even portions of western Putnam County to western Duval, Jax airport, and most of Nassau County west of A1A. Mandarin, St. Johns and areas along the rivers and beaches will see lows closer to 40 degrees. I will keep you posted.

Now while I am not calling for snow, since it will be clear, crisp and calm we will have a heavy frost here at home tomorrow night. In Lafayette, Indiana Justin New was kind enough to snap this picture of their first "graupel" snow. This tells you our front has a ton of cold air aloft. It is moving our way and will work its way to the ground. You stay warm and stay tuned!

Glorious Sunshine! Motivation weather helps us fly over the hump!

November 9, 2011

It has been a cloudy, dreary, chilly month but that is all behind us now!  Today our Florida weather bounces back in a big way as highs roll into the lower 80s. The only thing impeding our sun rays will be if you are under the oak or magnolia tree you see above. We have a UV Index of 5 which means when you take your extra long walk or run like I am make sure to remember the sunscreen with SPF 15! I know it is November but believe it or not on average a sunburn can take place today in as little as 35 minutes. If you need to ask the boss for a favor or about a much deserved raise, today is the day to do it. It has been proven that sunny, warm days release the feel-good chemical from the pineal gland in the brain. You are not only more motivated on days like this but your body naturally has more energy. I feel like I can run 26.2 now and the National Breast Cancer Marathon is not until February. I better harness some of this energy! You also receive free vitamin D which builds your bones and muscles. So on this hump day get out and enjoy. You also have the weatherman's seal of approval to take off work early. Just double-check with your boss, please! I do not want any surprise e-mails...lol

It has been tough to find any pictures on the asteroid fly-by last night. Here is the best one I could find out of Clay Hill Observatory in Massachusetts. The brightest object in the lower right is asteroid 2005 YU55. What is amazing is this asteroid will do several more fly-bys of the earth over the next few hundred years. It is yet to be determined if we will stay outside of its main path. But we should be safe for at least the next 100 years at least from this asteroid. It has been put on the hazardous asteroids list. Did you know there was such a thing? Now if you are wondering why every channel and frequency on your TV and radio will be going off today at 2 p.m. it does not mean the asteroid has turned around and is coming our way. It is the first ever national test of our emergency alert system. The whole country will be impacted at 2 p.m. EST. It will last for approximately 30 seconds. It is only a test.

Here is another look at Sean which is the big swirl in the Atlantic. It will continue to produce dangerous rips and high seas here in Florida for at least one more day before moving north and falling apart. We could still have 12 foot seas out near the Gulf Stream, so once again today may be beautiful on land but it is not the best of fishing days well offshore. Sean, which is the 18th named storm and for the first time since records have been kept in the tropics since 1851 we have had two consecutive seasons with 18 or more named storms. Hurricane-wise this year it has been average with 6. Average is 6 and it looks like the Saharan Dust Layer from Africa once again played a key role in limiting the number of hurricanes by adding drier air to the atmosphere and more wind shear. Speaking of 6, it was our sixth most active year on record but we are not done yet. I see a huge ridge setting up in the Caribbean Sea along with very warm water. This breeding ground is not done yet! I think another named storm is likely which would tie us for third most active year on record for named storms. Speaking of our pattern through the end of November....are you ready for your Turkey Day sneak peek? Okay here we go!

Gobble, gobble, gobble! There are a lot of folks asking me what it will be like for their northern relatives when they come visit over Thanksgiving. They want warm weather to go with their mashed potatoes and cranberries. Our average Thanksgiving highs are in the lower 70s but I think it could top that this year without a doubt. The overall pattern across North America is expected to flip but not until after Thanksgiving into December. The cold west, warm east set-up due to a strong high pressure north of Hawaii should continue for at least the next two weeks. But there are signs of Greenland blocking by the end of the month which would likely help bring some of the cold air locked up in Alaska and northwest Canada into Florida by early December. Look at this incredible snow map of Alaska. The whole state is buried!

Now Alaska is seeing what I am calling a BLIZZICANE or its strongest storm to hit the Bering Sea area since 1913. Wind gusts of 90 mph with snow! Can you imagine. The pressure on the storm is 943 mb which you would normally see in a category 4 hurricane. So not to get side-tracked but we really need to realize how lucky we are and that this pattern is a volatile one which could hammer the Midwest and then the East Coast as we head into December. The snow cover will allow the cold air to build in a big way and it has nowhere to go but eventually farther south and east. It is not a matter of if but when and I still think it will be later than sooner which is good news for Uncle Ron and Aunt Debbie! But for my friends reading this from the Midwest I think you are skating on thin ice and there could be a Thanksgiving Blizzard in your neighborhood. If you are in Wisconsin or Minnesota be alert. Farther south in Indiana your weather will flip like a switch and you need to have the snow shovels ready by late November.

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Here is the North American Oscillation index which drives our temperatures in Florida over the cooler months. If you see it is red or positve it usually is a good sign for me to be able to forecast above normal temperatures. The last two winters we were stuck in the blue or negative which means the cold air would just not go away with one frost after another! In this pattern we can still get some cold shots of air but they do not last long and we warm right back up. So while will have some ups and downs with our temperatures over the next couple weeks, overall the warmer air should win out along with the sunshine!

Tomorrow we will talk more about our frost chances for interior areas away from the waterways by Saturday morning. But remember the chill will not stick around very long. Now you know why. Have a great day and enjoy the sunshine!

Good Viewing for Tonight's Close Encounter of the Asteroid Kind

November 8, 2011

Our old friend is back! It was sure nice to see the sun again after what seemed to be a month of darkness. Well we were really stuck in the clouds for three and a half days but this is the sunshine state so it felt much, much longer. This was all due to our newest tropical storm that formed. But we will get to that. Of much more urgency is an asteroid moving toward earth at nearly 30,000 mph as I type this. Now we are not in danger but it is a reminder of our earth's turbulent past and a future that will inevitably include more catastrophic collisions. The dinosaurs if they were here could attest to this.

Asteroid 2005 YU55 will be about 201,000 miles away or its closest to the earth at 6:28 p.m. This distance is closer than the moon currently is which is about 248,000 miles away. Pretty impressive! The timing on mostly clear skies looks great but this asteroid is the shade of dark chocolate since it is a class-C asteroid which means it is made primarily of carbon. So you will need a high powered telescope with a mirror greater than six inches. You need to look high in the southern sky just to the right of the Pegasus Square. Our best viewing would likely be between 9 and 10 p.m. in this part of the sky. It is moving quickly and is faint so it will be a challenge to even the more sophisticated stargazer.

What is amazing is it will only be 150,000 miles from the moon. The good news is we will be able to study this asteroid which will hopefully give us an idea of what we are dealing in the future when we may not be so lucky. The good news is we should be asteroid free for at least the next 100 years. It goes to show you how fragile life is and that you should never take it for granted. If this 1,300 foot space rock hit it would have left a 5 mile crater about 2,000 feet deep. A tsunami wave of 80 feet would have reached all our continents and it would be like 65,000 Hiroshima bombs going off at the same time. So we can count our blessings! We are safe but it will come so close that the earth will effect its spin which takes 18 hours to make one revolution! That is a lot to think about isn't it! Our next close encounter of the asteroid kind will not take place until 2029. Good viewing and please send any great pictures to weather@firstcoastnews.com. Thanks!

I want to wish my Dad a Happy Birthday. I will be going out to celebrate tonight. The best gift my Dad ever gave me was teaching me about the different clouds one day at the playground and always believing in me! Thanks Dad! I love you!

Speaking of clouds this would make both me and my Dad proud! What a beautiful job by NASA! We have a full-fledged tropical storm now. We talked about this over the weekend! What started out as a storm with both mid-latitude and tropical characteristics is now all tropical since it has had about 48 hours to spin like a top over tropical waters of 80.5 degrees just above the 80 degree threshold. Its biggest impact we have already felt with the lingering clouds, swells, dangerous seas, rip currents, beach erosion and northeast breezes. The good news is it will stay out to sea and Bermuda should only see a few gusts of 40 mph along with some rain showers. It will weaken by late week as it encounters cooler water and wind shear.

Sean is being kicked out by a major front that brought those amazing Oklahoma tornadoes yesterday. The main local impact for us at home will be a couple of very nice warm November days! Yes, I said warm. We have been running about 4 to 5 degrees below normal so far this moth and we are long overdue. We can keep the sunshine in the forecast to boot. A sneak peek to this upcoming weekend does not hold for another nor'easter! How about a southeaster. I will be back to explain more tomorrow along with a turkey day forecast that will have you gobbling for more!

Nor'easter Taking its Cues from a Storm That May Be Named Sean!

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Today our nor'easter continues. A small craft advisory continues along with a high surf advisory. Northeast wind gusts on the open seas at 25-35 kts. Surf 8-10 feet with minor beach erosion. Seas a monstrous 10-16 feet. Keep the dingy at the dock if possible today. On land a gusty northeast wind continues at 20-30 mph. We do have a warmer layer of air but it is trapped 5,000 feet above us and it looks like it will have trouble mixing to the surface. This inversion caused by our nor'easter will have three big impacts on our weather. It will keep us cloudy throughout the day. It was stabilize the atmosphere with only a few sprinkles possible. Thirdly, temperatures will struggle into the 60s.

Our sluggish weather and nor'easter is taking its cues from an area of low pressure near the Bahamas spinning in place. You can see it on the satellite picture with the big swirl above. There is a possibility it could become subtropical Sean since it is now moving over 81 degree water. It will sit over this tropical water for at least 48 hours. This system's main impact on us at home would be to keep our nor'easter howling for another couple days. Right now the National Hurricane Center is giving it a 10% chance of being a hybrid storm.

This week will feature a supercell of storms across the deep South and it may impact the Panhandle of Florida with severe weather. By time it moves our way it will weaken but we cannot rule out a thunderstorm by late Thursday. We will turn very warm ahead of this front with highs bouncing back to near 80. Keep your eyes to the sky this week! We have an asteroid that is passing only about 3,000 miles from earth and we should be able to see it on Tuesday night! Our Veterans Day Parade looks sunny and breezy with temperatures in the lower 60s. Have a great week and keep looking up! That is the way to go!

I will see you tonight at 6, 6:30, and 11. Dan Hicken will be in the house and you never know what may happen on the set! I will also post more details of our big week ahead here on the blog this evening. I am actually running an hour behind today unlike most folks because my phone turned the clock back two hours. That is a fun story I will share as well here on the blog...although not so fun for me when I woke up. The main thing is I did get to the station in time for the early bird show! God bless! Have a great day!

Gales of November today, showers move in tonight!

Saturday, November 5, 2011

I had lots of feedback from soccer moms this morning on Good Morning Jacksonville and it can be summed up in three words...COLD, COLD, COLD....Suzanne was kind enough to send me in this picture between games. It also gave her a chance to thaw out her so-called frozen ears. She has some afternoon games to go to and unfortunately it will not feel much better. What a great Mom! The kids will appreciate this eventually even if you have to wait a few years....lol. What made those mid-50s feel so much colder was that north breeze! Cover up those ears for the afternoon games because it will only get worse with gusts at times from 30 to 35 mph.

It is that time of year when we get nor'easters that fire up off in the Atlantic caused by cold north winds meeting our tropical Gulf Stream that is still close to 80 degrees. This temperature gradient helps form a natural area of low pressure in the atmosphere and as we know the wind takes its cues from pressure differences between our ocean low and higher pressure to the north causes the wind to blow with gusto! The northeast wind is force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale which means we will have gale force wind gusts near 40 mph. To put it in perspective you only need 39 mph sustained winds around a warm core low pressure to have a named tropical storm. While not a tropical storm, we will can call this storm the Force 8 Nor'easter and it will be a force to be reckoned with throughout the weekend into next week!

The good news is we will not have a raw rain to go with the wind and ominous clouds today. Here is our futurecast pinpoint when and where we can expect the rain. Shower activity should hold off at the beaches until this evening and will not spread inland until late tonight. This means it looks good downtown for the fair tonight as well. The big story again today will be the chilly wind. Take the ear plugs and jackets if you are heading out to the Naval Air Show. Highs will only be in the lower to middle 60s with wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

A gale warning (wind gusts of 39 mph or higher) will continue offshore with 10-15 foot seas and wind gusts to 40 mph. A high surf advisory is also in effect for minor beach erosion due to 8 foot breakers today.

Rip currents will remain dangerous even for surfers. This nor'easter will linger through at least Monday with showers becoming more likely Sunday into Monday. But rain coverage should only be 30% tops and it will not be an all day rain! Check out the European accumulated rainfall map above. It shows most of the rain should stay east of highway 301 and many of us will not see one drop of rain this weekend especially in Georgia and interior Florida. So I would not cancel plans but just have your umbrellas handy. Temperatures will remain below normal with the cloud cover and a northeast wind continuing on Sunday. While warmer highs will only be near 70 once again which is a good six degrees below our 30 year average.

Our long-range forecast includes temperatures bouncing back near 80 by Wednesday and Thursday of next week ahead of our new weather system that could bring a severe weather outbreak to portions of the deep South and Midwest. By time it gets here it should be in a weakened state with a few showers returning late Thursday. Have a wonderful weekend! Enjoy your extra hour of sleep and turn those clocks back one hour before going to sleep tonight. It is also a good time to change your smoke detector batteries. Take care. My wife has some scrumptious chilly waiting for me. I will see you tonight at 6, 7, and 11! Thanks for reading and watching!