Flip in Storm Track Favors Less Rain for Lafayette

We could still have some lowland flooding problems, but based on the latest maps in early Saturday afternoon significant flooding is looking less likely around the area. The storm has taken a big turn to the left just like we have seen all winter long. Two of our three models are trending closer to .75" of rather than close to an inch of rain. This is the break we have been all hoping and praying for. This would keep the Wabash from rising to the levels we saw the previous two flood. Now since these La Nina storms are known to be very erratic we will still have to watch things closely and I still plan on coming into work on Sunday just in case. Why has forecasting storms this winter been anything but easy? Well, I tried to explain it for you and Chris in this e-mail.

Mike-How can I explain to the children (who in the 5th grade I teach how to read a couple of them) why the models have been so off with a couple of storms this year? They are asking...and I honestly don't know how to explain it so that they can understand. I know that the models are not perfect....and that atmospheric conditions can change....Also--what is your gut telling you for this weekend?? Thanks! Chris

Good question Chris, a La Nina is known to produce a highly energetic jet stream that roarsin off the Pacific with a parade of storms. These storms come crashing into the West and Midwest at over 100 to 150 mph. In response to this stormy pattern, a much stronger Bermuda high sets up off the EastCoast...almost like you would see in May. Remember nature seeks balance so low pressure out West brings a corresponding High pressure to the East. This strong high pressure tends to steer developing storms much farther west as a result due to the clockwise circulation around the Bermuda high. It basically detours storms around its huge influence playing havoc with all meteorologists! Also our models have trouble handling things flying at us at over 100 mph and when you add in huge differences in temperatures every few days it can cause even more error.The math the computer is doing is correct, it just cannot keep up fast enough. It goes to show you that nature is in control!

Also, to all our Florida friends that check this blog everday to check on loved ones back here at home, this special Saturday update was just for you! Finally I have some good news to share with you! Mom and Dad thanks for my Valentine's package from Jacksonville and good luck to all the marathon runners at Jacksonville Beach this weekend. It looks a bit warm with race temperatures in the 60s to start and ending well into the 70s with sunshine. This means to go to plan B with more water breaks and it will not be a race to try to set a personal record. This is a reminder my marathon in Washington, D.C. is only a few weeks away. Nature has kept me in good shape that is for sure!

Latest Storm Track Keeps Lafayette Close to 1" of Rain

The heaviest rain looks like it will be over Illinois and it may be their turn for record flooding. Here at home we will still have to watch out for river rises with close to an inch of rain possible, but at this time it looks like the flooding this time around for us will not be as bad as the first two floods. But, do not let your guard down as flood watches will likely be issued for our entire viewing area for tonight into Sunday. There could be a brief icy mix to start especially to our north. But for now here is the breakdown of precipitation. The inch or so of snow will likely fall Sunday night into early Monday with any icing mainly between 2 a.m. and 7 a.m.



As long as we keep rainfall totals closer to an inch or less the scene above on state road 43 will likely not be repeated. Lowland flooding will still be a factor with rivers already out of their banks and ice jam troubles could mount once again with the rainfall. I will keep you updated and be very careful if you are traveling across the Midwest this weekend. Madision, Wisconsin could see another 10 inches of snow!

Another La Nina Storm Will Bring Heavy Rain & More Flooding

Courtesy of Diana Marion (Lake Shafer or Arctic ice shelf?)

* FLOOD WARNING FOR... CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA NORTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA
* UNTIL 1115 PM EST FRIDAY

* AT 1115 PM EST THURSDAY...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED AN ICE JAM AT LOWES BRIDGE...OR ABOUT 1 MILE SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO ON THE TIPPECANOE RIVER. MINOR RIVER RISES AT WINAMAC INDICATE THE ICE JAM IS CAUSING FLOODING UPSTREAM FROM THE LOWES BRIDGE TO WINAMAC.

SOME TOWNS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE WINAMAC...LAKESIDE...PULASKI...AND BUFFALO.

MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CAUSE THE JAM TO PERSIST ANDWILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOOD SITUATION ALONG THE RIVER. IF YOU LIVE ALONG THE RIVER OR A TRIBUTARY OF THE RIVER FROM WINAMAC DOWN TO LAKE SHAFER...BE ALERT FOR RAPID RISES ON STREAMS AND THETIPPECANOE RIVER.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THEROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN.


Ice Jam on Lake Shafer has FEMA's attention

I just got off the phone early this afternoon with White County Emergency Management director Gordy Cochran. The water levels have gone down another 1 to 2 feet which has helped move some of the ice that has been jammed up in some spots up to an amazing 4 feet high. I have incredible pictures I will post here for you tonight. Here is the problem: With much more than an inch of rain on the way we could be back in the same boat we were a couple days ago. Once the water levels rise again the ice will get caught and jam once again. So the key this weekend is to keep our rainfall totals to close to an inch. If we go well above an inch or closer to 2" we could have some major flooding issues once again. The latest models show just under an inch of rain for most of us with a quick inch or two of snow in the storm's backlash on Sunday night and Monday morning. This would be better news if it happened, but the storm hasn't even formed or deepened yet so it will certainly be a wait and see game. Hopefully we will miss out on the worst part of the storm.

Also, concerns of more serious flooding on the Wabash River at Lafayette and Covington continue. Notice the high flood waters above have left their mark on area trees. I spoke to Al Shipe who is our state hydrologist and he says another inch of rain could bring our river levels back up to near 20 feet at Lafayette and 25 feet at Covington by the middle of next week. Things will not get worse than we have seen as long as we keep rainfall totals less than two inches. The reservoirs in northern Indiana are still running about 30 feet higher than average and the Corps has been dumping water as a result. This has kept Lafayette and Covington's Wabash River levels about 3 to 4 feet above flood stage. Since the Wabash is already out of its banks and the dumping of water to the north will continue at least until the rain starts this weekend it looks like the flood warning will not end anytime soon.

How many more of these La Nina storms can we expect? I think at least 3 more as finish out February and head into March and here is why.

This has been one of our strongest La Nina's on record. A La Nina is caused by below average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Here are the latest numbers.

Between 170 East and135 West Longitude (Temperatures are running more than 2 degrees Celsius below average.)

Between 165 East and 115 West Longitude (Temperatures are running just over 1.5 degrees Celsius below average.)

We need these temperatures to warm up because they are playing havoc with the overall atmospheric circulations around the globe. The earth according to some of the new data coming in had its second coldest January in the last 15 years and it has been its coldest northern Hemispheric winter since at least 2000. Madison, Wisconsin has had its snowiest winter on record with close to 80 inches of snow. Lafayette has had one of its wettest winters on record. So it is easy to see why a La Nina pattern is known to bring stormy weather to the Midwest. It is so strong that even if it starts weakening over the next few weeks it should still be a major player in our weather at least through April and maybe longer. This would bring us more wild and stormy weather and plenty of severe weather during the heart of our Spring season. We have already had 4 thunderstorms this month alone!

Since it is very tough to forecast how fast the La Nina will weaken I will keep you posted on the latest data. Right now it looks like our stormy pattern will not end anytime soon. One glimmer of hope is the East Pacific water temperatures off South America have warmed up considerably to about 1.5 degrees Celsius above average. Could it help the La Nina collapse more quickly? Possibly and if that happens we will finally have hope of drying out. But right now latest NOAA weather data has a much slower weakening. Enjoy the sunshine while you can! I will be working on Sunday as well to help keep you ahead of yet another storm! If needed I will do cut-ins and a blog update.

Monster Weekend Storm Still Looks Likely

Lauren enjoying her Valentine's Gifts

Well at least we got the Valentine's parties in this year. Last year they were postponed in some cases for over a week! This year is still looking great. But the party is almost over! We are tracking a strong cold front bringing winter's return tonight. The big concern is still for the weekend. We have the potential for the strongest storm of the winter, believe it or not. Tune in for the latest and I will keep you posted here on the blog. Right now I think we have a shot at not only seeing heavy rain, but maybe problems with heavy ice and snow. Right now the models have mainly rain, but the storm track has yet to be determined.

One Year Later...We Remember the Blizzard of 2007

Here are just a few pictures you can look at to reminisce. It will be one of those storms I will tell my grandchildren all about. How does it stack up against Lafayette's other blizzards. I will pull out the big charts for you shortly.

Catching Up On Sleep, But Not A Deep Snooze in this Pattern

Well, I actually can get home and get some rest. This will not be an all-nighter like last week. This picture was taken on the southside of Lafayette on Monday night and it pretty much tells the story. We have already had a season's worth of snow and then some so we were due for a break from this relentless winter. We will quiet down much of the week, but all bets are off by the weekend. Check back here on the blog and tune in tonight to find out why. Remember Valentine's Day is Thursday so we have perfect weather to shop for those special loved ones.

Quick Quarter to Half Inch of Snow Not a Sign of Things to Come

Okay, I will be brutally honest snow fans! It looks like we will be lucky here in Lafayette to get an inch of snow. Yes, the first batch of snow this evening was impressive with a quick coating of snow, but latest radar and model trends have stooped even lower on snow amounts. We had a quick .25" on the southside, but I am wondering if we will add much to it.

Tonight at 6 p.m. My forecast was 1 to 2 inches of snow by morning for Lafayette. I think we will be on the lower end of this forecast with most areas by morning picking up a dusting to an inch at most and we will see little or no additional snow Tuesday.

The air was just too cold and dry, but this weekend could be a much different story. I look forward to seeing you at 11 p.m. Also for those heading to Indianapolis I think once again the Circle City misses out on the big one and the bullseye will likely be south of Interstate 70 or closer to Bloomington and points south. These are the areas that could pick up a healthy 4 to 7 inches.